5 ms·

It isn't "fear" of change, it is that political systems get captured by status quo interest groups that fight against change.

heretohelp 14y ago
Where's the anti-robot car lobby? I doubt most cabbies are even aware of this. Further, I would submit that this is mostly due to the legislators themselves.
- d4mi3n 14y ago
  I imagine the teamster's don't like the idea. Insurance companies and similar businesses may also have a bone to pick with the idea.
  - fghh45sdfhr3 14y ago
    I'm hoping insurance companies are for self driving cars. I also expect a very serious conflict between teamsters and companies like UPS and FedEx, which employ a lot of drivers.
    - weaksauce 14y ago
      I think that fedex and ups will use them only for the long haul driving and still employ a lot of drivers at the last mile delivery points.
    - bathat 14y ago
      As an interesting side-note, FedEx was buying adds a while ago complaining about the "Brown Bailout." Apparently there was some to-do about how UPS's pilots were part of the teamster's union (or its drivers were part of the pilot's union--I don't remember--in any case, FedEx didn't like it). For that reason, I wonder if we'll see a third player (maybe Amazon) enter the local delivery market because it doesn't have to deal with legacy contracts with the teamsters.
- ihsw 14y ago
  The anti-robot truck lobby will probably come out in full force soon. A trucker that doesn't have to 1) eat 2) sleep 3) experience fatigue -- this trucker is vastly superior. There is already a lot of analytics measuring truck performance, metrics which would make autonomous trucks very feasible.
  - maxerickson 14y ago
    Freight prices are low enough that I saw a company complaining that they can't afford the insurance on inexperienced drivers. So it at least has the potential to be a short term problem.
  - run4yourlives 14y ago
    And this is the true market for robotic vehicles (at least at the outset). Transport trucks spend hours on interstates between points going in relatively straight lines, at relatively low traffic times. The trucking industry will be dead 5-10 years after robot trucks start appearing on the road. EDIT: Sorry "trucking industry" should be in quotes, as yes, by this I mean the idea of people driving trucks, which is 90% of the "industry". The actual industry itself isn't going anywhere, agreed. My fault in the miscommunication.
    - fghh45sdfhr3 14y ago
      Not so much the industry as trucker as a profession. Trucks will be all over the place, just not driven by humans. And then there's all the service stops which now offer food, etc for truckers. I expect few of them will successful transition to serve tourists exclusively.
    - arrrg 14y ago
      The industry will be just fine. It's just the truck driver profession that will die. The existing actors, however, might well be unable to drive that transition and they might consequently die and be replaced by other, new actors.
    - camiller 14y ago
      I'm pretty sure that long-haul truckers are well under half the truck driving profession. Pay attention to the number of semi-trucks delivering food and other products to schools / restaurants / convenience stores etc. Oh and those drivers have to unload the shipments as well. I don't think the truck industry will disappear, but there will be a shift in the mix of long-haul vs. short-haul truckers.
vectorbunny 14y ago
See Chris Paine's 2006 documentary 'Who Killed the Electric Car?' for background on the politics of transportation in California. Hopefully Google will be up to task.
kemiller 14y ago
I don't know that it's just that. Car and driver ran a fearmongering editorial about it in their most recent issue. ("We can't trust them with our credit cards and now they want us to trust them to drop little Sally off at the pool?") There will definitely be grassroots backlash. My guess is that comfort with this as a concept will be generational, as are lots of things. I like the idea a lot, but I also will miss driving. I doubt my daughter will miss driving in the slightest.
- nitrogen 14y ago
  I doubt my daughter will miss driving in the slightest. I don't think anybody will miss driving in traffic, but until there's some other way to experience the combined sense of control, shifting G-forces, and the world streaming by, manual driving on sparsely populated roads will always be desirable.
  - kemiller 14y ago
    Preaching to the choir. :) But my point is that I doubt she will have experienced enough of that to miss it.
tthomas48 14y ago
Or that the people who can see the benefits never show up to try to convince anyone.
Mvandenbergh 14y ago
Of course Google has a lot more influence in the California legislature than any car manufacturer. I'm not sure you could get this passed in Michigan or Detroit.

heretohelp 14y ago

Where's the anti-robot car lobby? I doubt most cabbies are even aware of this. Further, I would submit that this is mostly due to the legislators themselves.

d4mi3n 14y ago
I imagine the teamster's don't like the idea. Insurance companies and similar businesses may also have a bone to pick with the idea.
- fghh45sdfhr3 14y ago
  I'm hoping insurance companies are for self driving cars. I also expect a very serious conflict between teamsters and companies like UPS and FedEx, which employ a lot of drivers.
  - weaksauce 14y ago
    I think that fedex and ups will use them only for the long haul driving and still employ a lot of drivers at the last mile delivery points.
  - bathat 14y ago
    As an interesting side-note, FedEx was buying adds a while ago complaining about the "Brown Bailout." Apparently there was some to-do about how UPS's pilots were part of the teamster's union (or its drivers were part of the pilot's union--I don't remember--in any case, FedEx didn't like it). For that reason, I wonder if we'll see a third player (maybe Amazon) enter the local delivery market because it doesn't have to deal with legacy contracts with the teamsters.
ihsw 14y ago
The anti-robot truck lobby will probably come out in full force soon. A trucker that doesn't have to 1) eat 2) sleep 3) experience fatigue -- this trucker is vastly superior. There is already a lot of analytics measuring truck performance, metrics which would make autonomous trucks very feasible.
- maxerickson 14y ago
  Freight prices are low enough that I saw a company complaining that they can't afford the insurance on inexperienced drivers. So it at least has the potential to be a short term problem.
- run4yourlives 14y ago
  And this is the true market for robotic vehicles (at least at the outset). Transport trucks spend hours on interstates between points going in relatively straight lines, at relatively low traffic times. The trucking industry will be dead 5-10 years after robot trucks start appearing on the road. EDIT: Sorry "trucking industry" should be in quotes, as yes, by this I mean the idea of people driving trucks, which is 90% of the "industry". The actual industry itself isn't going anywhere, agreed. My fault in the miscommunication.
  - fghh45sdfhr3 14y ago
    Not so much the industry as trucker as a profession. Trucks will be all over the place, just not driven by humans. And then there's all the service stops which now offer food, etc for truckers. I expect few of them will successful transition to serve tourists exclusively.
  - arrrg 14y ago
    The industry will be just fine. It's just the truck driver profession that will die. The existing actors, however, might well be unable to drive that transition and they might consequently die and be replaced by other, new actors.
  - camiller 14y ago
    I'm pretty sure that long-haul truckers are well under half the truck driving profession. Pay attention to the number of semi-trucks delivering food and other products to schools / restaurants / convenience stores etc. Oh and those drivers have to unload the shipments as well. I don't think the truck industry will disappear, but there will be a shift in the mix of long-haul vs. short-haul truckers.

vectorbunny 14y ago

See Chris Paine's 2006 documentary 'Who Killed the Electric Car?' for background on the politics of transportation in California. Hopefully Google will be up to task.

kemiller 14y ago

I don't know that it's just that. Car and driver ran a fearmongering editorial about it in their most recent issue. ("We can't trust them with our credit cards and now they want us to trust them to drop little Sally off at the pool?") There will definitely be grassroots backlash. My guess is that comfort with this as a concept will be generational, as are lots of things. I like the idea a lot, but I also will miss driving. I doubt my daughter will miss driving in the slightest.

nitrogen 14y ago
I doubt my daughter will miss driving in the slightest. I don't think anybody will miss driving in traffic, but until there's some other way to experience the combined sense of control, shifting G-forces, and the world streaming by, manual driving on sparsely populated roads will always be desirable.
- kemiller 14y ago
  Preaching to the choir. :) But my point is that I doubt she will have experienced enough of that to miss it.

tthomas48 14y ago

Or that the people who can see the benefits never show up to try to convince anyone.

Mvandenbergh 14y ago

Of course Google has a lot more influence in the California legislature than any car manufacturer. I'm not sure you could get this passed in Michigan or Detroit.