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> If the top 1% of companies drive the majority of VC returns The fact that the author brings this up and fails to realize that the behavior of current staff s

> If the top 1% of companies drive the majority of VC returns The fact that the author brings this up and fails to realize that the behavior of current staff shows we have hit or have passed peak AI. Moores Law is dead and it isn't going to come through and make AI any more affordable. Look at the latest GPU's: IPC is flat. And no one is charging enough to pay for running (bandwidth, power) of the computer that is being used, never mind turning NVIDA into a 4 trillion dollar company. > Meta’s multi-hundred million dollar comp offers and Google’s multi-billion dollar Character AI and Windsurf deals signal that we are in a crazy AI talent bubble. All this signals is that those in the know have chosen to take their payday. They don't see themselves building another google scale product, they dont see themselves delivering on samas vision. They KNOW that they are never going to be the 1% company, the unicorn. It's a stark admission that there is NO break out. The math isnt there in the products we are building today: to borrow a Bay Area quote there is no there there. And you can't spend your way to market capture / a moat, like every VC gold rush of the past. Do I think AI/ML is dead. NO, but I dont think that innovation is going to come out of the big players, or the dominant markets. Its going to take a bust, cheap and accessable compute (fire sale on used processing) and a new generation of kids to come in hungry and willing to throw away a few years on a big idea. Then you might see interesting tools and scaling down (to run localy). The first team to deliver a model that can run on a GPU alongside a game, so that there is never an "I took an arrow to the knee" meme again is going to make a LOT of money.

Avicebron 1y ago
> The first team to deliver a model that can run on a GPU alongside a game, so that there is never an "I took an arrow to the knee" meme again is going to make a LOT of money. "Local Model Augmentation", a sort of standardized local MCP that serves as a layer between a model and a traditional app like a game client. Neat :3
ythiscoyness 1y ago
> the 10x engineer meme doesn’t go far enough – there are clearly people that are 1,000x the baseline impact. Plenty out there who want authors like this believing it enough to write it
- harimau777 1y ago
  Obviously the specifics are going to depend on exactly how a team pegs story points, but if an average engineer delivers 10 story points during a two week sprint, then that would mean that a 1000x engineer would deliver 10000 story points, correct? I don't see how someone can actually believe that.
  - asdf6969 1y ago
    1000x revenue not 1000x developer productivity is possible sometimes. There are lots of jobs where developers also decide on the roadmap and requirements along with the execution instead of just being ticket monkey and a good idea executed well could easily be worth 1000x changing button colours and adding pagination to an API
  - nopinsight 1y ago
    impact != story points
    - humanrebar 1y ago
      Yeah, story points approximate effort, so it's fairly impossible to be 10x on those. JIRA has a notion of business value points, and you could make up similar metrics in other project planning tools. The problem would then be how to estimate the value of implementing 0.01% of the technology of a product that doesn't sell as a standalone feature. If you can accurately do that, you might be the 100x employee already.
    - harimau777 1y ago
      I agree, but my point is that 1000x is clearly hyperbole. Certainly there are people who are more productive or impactful, but not 1000 times more. That's particularly true since programming (like most human endeavors) is largely a team sport.
  - seanp2k2 1y ago
    Ladies and gentlemen, the problem with The Valley in 2025.
Kapura 1y ago
> The first team to deliver a model that can run on a GPU alongside a game, so that there is never an "I took an arrow to the knee" meme again is going to make a LOT of money. this feels like a fundamental misunderstanding of how video game dialogue writing works. it's actually an important that a player understand when the mission-critical dialogue is complete. While the specifics of a line becoming a meme may seem undesirable, it's far better that a player hears a line they know means "i have nothing to say" 100 times than generating ai slop every time the player passes a guard.
- zer00eyz 1y ago
  > this feels like a fundamental misunderstanding of how video game dialogue writing works. Factorio, Dwarf Fortress, Minecraft. There are plenty of games where the whole story is driven by cut scenes. There are plenty of games that shove your quests into their journal/pip boy to let you know how to drive game play. Dont get me wrong, I loved Zork back in the day (and still do) but we have evolved past that and the tools to move us further could be there.
  - Kapura 1y ago
    I am not sure what point you're trying to make here; none of the games you mentioned contain the famous "arrow to the knee" line. Dwarf Fortress, in fact, shows just how much is possible by committing to deep systemic synthesis. Without souped-up chatbots Dwarf Fortress creates emergent stories about cats who tread in beer and cause the downfall of a fortress, or allow players to define their own objectives and solutions, like flooding a valley full of murderous elephants with lava. My original point is that papering over important affordances with AI slop may actually work against the goals of the game. If they were good and fun, there is no reason a company like Microsoft couldn't have added the technology to Starfield.
  - goopypoop 1y ago
    procedurally generated content is the most onanistic form of art
    - 1y ago

Avicebron 1y ago

> The first team to deliver a model that can run on a GPU alongside a game, so that there is never an "I took an arrow to the knee" meme again is going to make a LOT of money. "Local Model Augmentation", a sort of standardized local MCP that serves as a layer between a model and a traditional app like a game client. Neat :3

ythiscoyness 1y ago

> the 10x engineer meme doesn’t go far enough – there are clearly people that are 1,000x the baseline impact. Plenty out there who want authors like this believing it enough to write it

harimau777 1y ago
Obviously the specifics are going to depend on exactly how a team pegs story points, but if an average engineer delivers 10 story points during a two week sprint, then that would mean that a 1000x engineer would deliver 10000 story points, correct? I don't see how someone can actually believe that.
- asdf6969 1y ago
  1000x revenue not 1000x developer productivity is possible sometimes. There are lots of jobs where developers also decide on the roadmap and requirements along with the execution instead of just being ticket monkey and a good idea executed well could easily be worth 1000x changing button colours and adding pagination to an API
- nopinsight 1y ago
  impact != story points
  - humanrebar 1y ago
    Yeah, story points approximate effort, so it's fairly impossible to be 10x on those. JIRA has a notion of business value points, and you could make up similar metrics in other project planning tools. The problem would then be how to estimate the value of implementing 0.01% of the technology of a product that doesn't sell as a standalone feature. If you can accurately do that, you might be the 100x employee already.
  - harimau777 1y ago
    I agree, but my point is that 1000x is clearly hyperbole. Certainly there are people who are more productive or impactful, but not 1000 times more. That's particularly true since programming (like most human endeavors) is largely a team sport.
- seanp2k2 1y ago
  Ladies and gentlemen, the problem with The Valley in 2025.

Kapura 1y ago

> The first team to deliver a model that can run on a GPU alongside a game, so that there is never an "I took an arrow to the knee" meme again is going to make a LOT of money. this feels like a fundamental misunderstanding of how video game dialogue writing works. it's actually an important that a player understand when the mission-critical dialogue is complete. While the specifics of a line becoming a meme may seem undesirable, it's far better that a player hears a line they know means "i have nothing to say" 100 times than generating ai slop every time the player passes a guard.

zer00eyz 1y ago
> this feels like a fundamental misunderstanding of how video game dialogue writing works. Factorio, Dwarf Fortress, Minecraft. There are plenty of games where the whole story is driven by cut scenes. There are plenty of games that shove your quests into their journal/pip boy to let you know how to drive game play. Dont get me wrong, I loved Zork back in the day (and still do) but we have evolved past that and the tools to move us further could be there.
- Kapura 1y ago
  I am not sure what point you're trying to make here; none of the games you mentioned contain the famous "arrow to the knee" line. Dwarf Fortress, in fact, shows just how much is possible by committing to deep systemic synthesis. Without souped-up chatbots Dwarf Fortress creates emergent stories about cats who tread in beer and cause the downfall of a fortress, or allow players to define their own objectives and solutions, like flooding a valley full of murderous elephants with lava. My original point is that papering over important affordances with AI slop may actually work against the goals of the game. If they were good and fun, there is no reason a company like Microsoft couldn't have added the technology to Starfield.
- goopypoop 1y ago
  procedurally generated content is the most onanistic form of art
  - 1y ago