5 ms·

What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

ssuds 1y ago
Previously shared here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44398543 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44398543
rwmj 1y ago
At the moment, the President and his entourage: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/would-you-rather-have-cheap-energy https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/would-you-rather-have-cheap-en...
testing22321 1y ago
We just got a heat pump in Canada and tore out the natural gas furnace. Massive energy saving - around $3k per year.
- theultdev 1y ago
  How much did the entire heat pump installation cost? I assume in Canada you needed a geo-thermal loop. That runs about $30k avg, you'll break even in 10 years. Investing that money would prove financially better. Even a 2% low-risk investment would net $6,421 in 10 years. Also it seems they have a lifespan of 15-20 years so you have to account for depreciation of the system. It doesn't make much sense to switch, new installations or replacing failing systems are the only scenarios I see where it does.
  - testing22321 1y ago
    No geothermal loop, heat pump was $10k out of pocket after incentives, on a 10 year interest free loan. It’s good down to -30C
    - theultdev 1y ago
      damn, what model is it. curious on those stats.
CYR1X 1y ago
The people who install them.
- api 1y ago
  This is true for some extent with solar too. Installation is now usually more expensive than the panels and a lot of the companies are shitty.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
detourdog 1y ago
Nothing. I have an 8 unit building that is relying on heat pumps in New England. Tomorrow workers will start installing a solar thermal array to complement an existing solar PV array. I'm doing it to minimize the growth of utility cost in the future. The only reason it's not wide spread is inertia and poorly informed consumers. This only reason this works for me is a large investment in insulation. Investing in insulation, renewable energy, and heat pumps. That is all it takes.
Macha 1y ago
New builds here in Ireland for the last few years have been financially incentivised to use heat pumps to the point they basically all are, and there’s talk of making it mandated over fuel based heating systems
theultdev 1y ago
same reason people don't have A/Cs in some places. although you'll get heatwaves sometimes, it's not worth it overall. similarly, although these may be more efficient than what you already have, it costs money upfront to install new stuff. money people don't have.
- dv_dt 1y ago
  I sure wish heat pumps were higher in my awareness when I had to replace an old AC/Gas central air stack - though that was many years ago before the efficiencies of heat pumps were quite as nice as the current generation.
looofooo0 1y ago
In Switzerland there is some neat established method for finding out the needed heating power. Consumption/year x Efficiency / 2000h/year = Max heating power. This should work for most moderate climates, although you should consult your local climate table. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/2781 https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/2781 Further even if you undersize your heat pump to only 70% of the max heating power, then you still will get out 99% from your heating from the heat pump on average.
superkuh 1y ago
Two things combined: uncertainty if the heat pump can handle cold regions making purchasing decisions much more difficult than with normal heating solutions which just work everywhere all the time. And that combined with the huge initial capital cost of in ground heat pump loops required in much of the country due to the cold winters. This second, the large capital cost from ground excavation or drilling, etc, means heat pumps really only make sense and will see adoption in new houses, not existing houses. At least in places where it actually gets cold regularly. I expect much stronger adoption where simple above ground units are feasible.
- AaronNewcomer 1y ago
  I think you’re confusing geothermal systems (ground excavation, drilling, etc) which are not what this article is talking about.
  - superkuh 1y ago
    I'm not. The problem with air-source heat pumps is that they don't work when it gets really cold (ie, a typical -15F minnesota average low for months at a time). They freeze up and stop working and cannot provide heat. So for heat pumps to work in the northern parts of the USA (say, Minnesota/Wisconsin/etc) they cannot just be pumping heat from the air. They require geothermal loops. So that's the two problems I described: weather a heat pump will work for your region of the USA is a complex issue. It's safer and easier to just pick a normal heating system. This uncertainty makes choosing heat pumps less likely in marginal climates like, say, Iowa. Of course this doesn't apply to places, like, say, Texas, which only get brief minor cold. Adoption of heat pumps there is straightforwards. The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump. And that has a very high initial capital cost, which means they basically only get put in during initial construction, not as add-ons to existing houses.
    - antisthenes 1y ago
      It's not a complex issue at all. 95% of US population are in temperate climate zones. Saying "it's a complex issue" is the same kind of ignorant self-induced panic as worrying about EV range for a single digit percentage of long trips. > The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump. No, you don't. You just need to accept that your payback period on a system will be longer than in a more temperate climate. It might pay back for itself in 7 years instead of 5, for example.
jasonthorsness 1y ago
FWIW I have a heat pump with natural gas backup installed in Washington state in 2016 and it's been great. As I recall even in 2016 there was no huge argument against it when you have to replace an existing natural gas furnace. Even in Washington it's nice to have AC and with a heat pump you get a more efficient furnace AND AC in one package.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  The only part needed to make an AC condensing unit a heat pump is a reversing valve (which can change coolant flow direction based on thermostat input). The cost for this valve is $100-$300. There is no reason to not make every unit a heat pump by default, considering the minimal cost and that you're amortizing the cost of the system over 10-20 years. With that said, depending on your latitude and climate, non electric backup heat might be necessary (to your point, a fossil gas furnace). Depends on your home envelope thermal efficiency (how long can it maintain heat without additional input or solely with solar input during the day), electrical utility reliability, etc.
ilamont 1y ago
Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience: Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems. This is a non-starter for tens of millions of households. Not just the range, but the low end of the range, which approaches the cost of a new car. Lots of people will look at this, and say, "No thanks, I can get 2 or 3 window-mounted ACs at Walmart for a fraction of the price." Four years ago when we got a heat pump/mini split the cost was at the low end of the range, but sweetened with a state loan program with 0% interest for the life of the loan. No brainer. I doubt those incentives exist in the current rate environment.
- johnea 1y ago
  I just paid about $12K to install mini-split heat pumps on a main house and ADU. Two separate systems. That's about 1/2 of the "minimum" cited above, and it's for 2 buildings. This is so similar to the EV panic. I'm not sure if the article is LLM slop, I only scanned it. But I agree with the main point that it's not the tech holding this back, it's the US population. I also bought a 2 year old used Nissan Leaf (w/ 15K miles) for $15K. I charge it at home. Neither of these purchases broke the bank. And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years. Maybe American's should learn to multiply. Then the cost of something over time will make it's adoption a clear winner. The resistance to electrification is one of the US's biggest self inflicted wounds (after actual gunshot wounds of course).
  - theultdev 1y ago
    > And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years how much did you save on your bills a month?
    - johnea 1y ago
      With the car, my back of the napkin calculation, says it will pay for itself in about 5 years. At ~10K miles/year, and San Diego gas prices of ~$5/gal.. It's hard to judge with the mini-split, since the house didn't have A/C at all before, and the ADU is new, so there is no history to compare. In the next few years though, I intend to install solar and batteries. This takes a little longer to pay off, but it's getting shorter all the time. Utilitys, especially SDG&E here in San Diego, have been raising rates at ~12%/year for quite a while. I hope to be totally energy self sufficient in another 1-3 years (including operating the car). I would expect this prospect to be very appealing to conservative rural residents, and yet for some reason there is a huge support for continuing to be dependent on oil companies.
roter 1y ago
The pros for heat pumps are numerous. There is the issue of resilience to extreme weather. ASHRAE is funding a project, just getting underway, to create a map, first of the USA but anticipated to be expanded to worldwide, of heat pump resilience in the face of an expected change in the frequency of extreme events. Those wanting to learn more: https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/research/research%20project%20bidding/1947-trp-.pdf https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/...
hollerith 1y ago
Heat pumps are much noisier than other heating technologies.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
rented_mule 1y ago
We're not replacing our central, forced-air propane furnace because of unreliable electricity. We have stretches where our electricity is out for 1-10 days at a time. That tends to correlate with times when our daily high temperatures are below freezing. The outages are typically caused by trees falling after several feet of snow fall on them before a windstorm finishes them off. We're in rural mountains in Northern California. We have whole-house backup batteries, which we can charge with a generator for longer outages (we also have solar in summer, but the sun doesn't get above the trees in the winter). The batteries/generator would have to be much bigger to replace that furnace with a heat pump. They will power the propane furnace (mainly the forced-air part). About 1/3 of our heating is firewood, but during deep cold spells, it's hard to keep it above ~55°F in rooms other than the one with the fireplace without help from the furnace. We do plan to install a mini-split system before too long, and use that when we do have electricity, relegating the central propane furnace to power outages. We already use an evaporative cooler for cooling, which uses far less electricity than AC. We'll only use the AC function of the mini-splits when we have a lot of smoke from wildfires in the area (evaporative coolers blow in lots of outside air).
dtgm93 1y ago
More practical to insulate and just paint your siding and roof white than replace your already existing/working AC. Immediate cooling benefits and no loan hanging over you for X years. Most people have not budgeted or saved for any infrastructure improvements though, so either is a hard sell.
- jpd25 1y ago
  No homeowner is going to replace a functioning system. No one is arguing for that. But furnaces and central ACs don't last forever, so when one of them goes, there's an opportunity for the homeowner to consider a more comfortable, efficient, safer, and healthier alternative (that is also better for the planet).
daft_pink 1y ago
Not sure if it’s the fact that I live in the rust belt, but pretty much every provider tried to dissaude me and said they would have to refer me to someone else when I tried to get one quoted last year. They said it’s not an ideal solution for the area, which seems to contradict everyone online that claims heat pumps are awesome.
- jpd25 1y ago
  Just an assumption here, but it's likely that many of the contractors you spoke to are misinformed and/or have had bad experiences installing them in the past. It has nothing to do with the capabilities of the equipment. Check out "The Current State of HVAC" and the following sections in the research piece for more context on this point. The average HVAC contracting business is simply not in a good position to recommend or install a heat pump system.
  - daft_pink 1y ago
    I thought that might be true, but I interviewed 3-4 different companies and asked them all about this and told them I wanted the tax credit and they all told me the same story. My experience essentially parallels the article, but I would add one additional thing. When you are making repairs on your house over $10k, and you interview the top contractors in your area with great reviews, very few 0 star reviews. They all say this technology is not really practical. It’s really hard knowing that everyone is having a great experience having their home fixed by these contractors that all advise you not to do something, to turn around and hire someone who is registered as a Daikin reseller and has an unacceptable number of 1 star reviews. Heat pump companies have to have decent partners in the field willing to sell their product before consumers are really going to risk spending so much money on their product.

Previously shared here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44398543 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44398543

rwmj 1y ago

At the moment, the President and his entourage: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/would-you-rather-have-cheap-energy https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/would-you-rather-have-cheap-en...

testing22321 1y ago

We just got a heat pump in Canada and tore out the natural gas furnace. Massive energy saving - around $3k per year.

theultdev 1y ago
How much did the entire heat pump installation cost? I assume in Canada you needed a geo-thermal loop. That runs about $30k avg, you'll break even in 10 years. Investing that money would prove financially better. Even a 2% low-risk investment would net $6,421 in 10 years. Also it seems they have a lifespan of 15-20 years so you have to account for depreciation of the system. It doesn't make much sense to switch, new installations or replacing failing systems are the only scenarios I see where it does.
- testing22321 1y ago
  No geothermal loop, heat pump was $10k out of pocket after incentives, on a 10 year interest free loan. It’s good down to -30C
  - theultdev 1y ago
    damn, what model is it. curious on those stats.

CYR1X 1y ago

The people who install them.

api 1y ago
This is true for some extent with solar too. Installation is now usually more expensive than the panels and a lot of the companies are shitty.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

detourdog 1y ago

Nothing. I have an 8 unit building that is relying on heat pumps in New England. Tomorrow workers will start installing a solar thermal array to complement an existing solar PV array. I'm doing it to minimize the growth of utility cost in the future. The only reason it's not wide spread is inertia and poorly informed consumers. This only reason this works for me is a large investment in insulation. Investing in insulation, renewable energy, and heat pumps. That is all it takes.

Macha 1y ago

New builds here in Ireland for the last few years have been financially incentivised to use heat pumps to the point they basically all are, and there’s talk of making it mandated over fuel based heating systems

theultdev 1y ago

same reason people don't have A/Cs in some places. although you'll get heatwaves sometimes, it's not worth it overall. similarly, although these may be more efficient than what you already have, it costs money upfront to install new stuff. money people don't have.

dv_dt 1y ago
I sure wish heat pumps were higher in my awareness when I had to replace an old AC/Gas central air stack - though that was many years ago before the efficiencies of heat pumps were quite as nice as the current generation.

looofooo0 1y ago

In Switzerland there is some neat established method for finding out the needed heating power. Consumption/year x Efficiency / 2000h/year = Max heating power. This should work for most moderate climates, although you should consult your local climate table. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/2781 https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/2781 Further even if you undersize your heat pump to only 70% of the max heating power, then you still will get out 99% from your heating from the heat pump on average.

superkuh 1y ago

Two things combined: uncertainty if the heat pump can handle cold regions making purchasing decisions much more difficult than with normal heating solutions which just work everywhere all the time. And that combined with the huge initial capital cost of in ground heat pump loops required in much of the country due to the cold winters. This second, the large capital cost from ground excavation or drilling, etc, means heat pumps really only make sense and will see adoption in new houses, not existing houses. At least in places where it actually gets cold regularly. I expect much stronger adoption where simple above ground units are feasible.

AaronNewcomer 1y ago
I think you’re confusing geothermal systems (ground excavation, drilling, etc) which are not what this article is talking about.
- superkuh 1y ago
  I'm not. The problem with air-source heat pumps is that they don't work when it gets really cold (ie, a typical -15F minnesota average low for months at a time). They freeze up and stop working and cannot provide heat. So for heat pumps to work in the northern parts of the USA (say, Minnesota/Wisconsin/etc) they cannot just be pumping heat from the air. They require geothermal loops. So that's the two problems I described: weather a heat pump will work for your region of the USA is a complex issue. It's safer and easier to just pick a normal heating system. This uncertainty makes choosing heat pumps less likely in marginal climates like, say, Iowa. Of course this doesn't apply to places, like, say, Texas, which only get brief minor cold. Adoption of heat pumps there is straightforwards. The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump. And that has a very high initial capital cost, which means they basically only get put in during initial construction, not as add-ons to existing houses.
  - antisthenes 1y ago
    It's not a complex issue at all. 95% of US population are in temperate climate zones. Saying "it's a complex issue" is the same kind of ignorant self-induced panic as worrying about EV range for a single digit percentage of long trips. > The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump. No, you don't. You just need to accept that your payback period on a system will be longer than in a more temperate climate. It might pay back for itself in 7 years instead of 5, for example.

jasonthorsness 1y ago

FWIW I have a heat pump with natural gas backup installed in Washington state in 2016 and it's been great. As I recall even in 2016 there was no huge argument against it when you have to replace an existing natural gas furnace. Even in Washington it's nice to have AC and with a heat pump you get a more efficient furnace AND AC in one package.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
The only part needed to make an AC condensing unit a heat pump is a reversing valve (which can change coolant flow direction based on thermostat input). The cost for this valve is $100-$300. There is no reason to not make every unit a heat pump by default, considering the minimal cost and that you're amortizing the cost of the system over 10-20 years. With that said, depending on your latitude and climate, non electric backup heat might be necessary (to your point, a fossil gas furnace). Depends on your home envelope thermal efficiency (how long can it maintain heat without additional input or solely with solar input during the day), electrical utility reliability, etc.

ilamont 1y ago

Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience: Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems. This is a non-starter for tens of millions of households. Not just the range, but the low end of the range, which approaches the cost of a new car. Lots of people will look at this, and say, "No thanks, I can get 2 or 3 window-mounted ACs at Walmart for a fraction of the price." Four years ago when we got a heat pump/mini split the cost was at the low end of the range, but sweetened with a state loan program with 0% interest for the life of the loan. No brainer. I doubt those incentives exist in the current rate environment.

johnea 1y ago
I just paid about $12K to install mini-split heat pumps on a main house and ADU. Two separate systems. That's about 1/2 of the "minimum" cited above, and it's for 2 buildings. This is so similar to the EV panic. I'm not sure if the article is LLM slop, I only scanned it. But I agree with the main point that it's not the tech holding this back, it's the US population. I also bought a 2 year old used Nissan Leaf (w/ 15K miles) for $15K. I charge it at home. Neither of these purchases broke the bank. And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years. Maybe American's should learn to multiply. Then the cost of something over time will make it's adoption a clear winner. The resistance to electrification is one of the US's biggest self inflicted wounds (after actual gunshot wounds of course).
- theultdev 1y ago
  > And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years how much did you save on your bills a month?
  - johnea 1y ago
    With the car, my back of the napkin calculation, says it will pay for itself in about 5 years. At ~10K miles/year, and San Diego gas prices of ~$5/gal.. It's hard to judge with the mini-split, since the house didn't have A/C at all before, and the ADU is new, so there is no history to compare. In the next few years though, I intend to install solar and batteries. This takes a little longer to pay off, but it's getting shorter all the time. Utilitys, especially SDG&E here in San Diego, have been raising rates at ~12%/year for quite a while. I hope to be totally energy self sufficient in another 1-3 years (including operating the car). I would expect this prospect to be very appealing to conservative rural residents, and yet for some reason there is a huge support for continuing to be dependent on oil companies.

roter 1y ago

The pros for heat pumps are numerous. There is the issue of resilience to extreme weather. ASHRAE is funding a project, just getting underway, to create a map, first of the USA but anticipated to be expanded to worldwide, of heat pump resilience in the face of an expected change in the frequency of extreme events. Those wanting to learn more: https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/research/research%20project%20bidding/1947-trp-.pdf https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/...

hollerith 1y ago

Heat pumps are much noisier than other heating technologies.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

rented_mule 1y ago

We're not replacing our central, forced-air propane furnace because of unreliable electricity. We have stretches where our electricity is out for 1-10 days at a time. That tends to correlate with times when our daily high temperatures are below freezing. The outages are typically caused by trees falling after several feet of snow fall on them before a windstorm finishes them off. We're in rural mountains in Northern California. We have whole-house backup batteries, which we can charge with a generator for longer outages (we also have solar in summer, but the sun doesn't get above the trees in the winter). The batteries/generator would have to be much bigger to replace that furnace with a heat pump. They will power the propane furnace (mainly the forced-air part). About 1/3 of our heating is firewood, but during deep cold spells, it's hard to keep it above ~55°F in rooms other than the one with the fireplace without help from the furnace. We do plan to install a mini-split system before too long, and use that when we do have electricity, relegating the central propane furnace to power outages. We already use an evaporative cooler for cooling, which uses far less electricity than AC. We'll only use the AC function of the mini-splits when we have a lot of smoke from wildfires in the area (evaporative coolers blow in lots of outside air).

dtgm93 1y ago

More practical to insulate and just paint your siding and roof white than replace your already existing/working AC. Immediate cooling benefits and no loan hanging over you for X years. Most people have not budgeted or saved for any infrastructure improvements though, so either is a hard sell.

jpd25 1y ago
No homeowner is going to replace a functioning system. No one is arguing for that. But furnaces and central ACs don't last forever, so when one of them goes, there's an opportunity for the homeowner to consider a more comfortable, efficient, safer, and healthier alternative (that is also better for the planet).

daft_pink 1y ago

Not sure if it’s the fact that I live in the rust belt, but pretty much every provider tried to dissaude me and said they would have to refer me to someone else when I tried to get one quoted last year. They said it’s not an ideal solution for the area, which seems to contradict everyone online that claims heat pumps are awesome.

jpd25 1y ago
Just an assumption here, but it's likely that many of the contractors you spoke to are misinformed and/or have had bad experiences installing them in the past. It has nothing to do with the capabilities of the equipment. Check out "The Current State of HVAC" and the following sections in the research piece for more context on this point. The average HVAC contracting business is simply not in a good position to recommend or install a heat pump system.
- daft_pink 1y ago
  I thought that might be true, but I interviewed 3-4 different companies and asked them all about this and told them I wanted the tax credit and they all told me the same story. My experience essentially parallels the article, but I would add one additional thing. When you are making repairs on your house over $10k, and you interview the top contractors in your area with great reviews, very few 0 star reviews. They all say this technology is not really practical. It’s really hard knowing that everyone is having a great experience having their home fixed by these contractors that all advise you not to do something, to turn around and hire someone who is registered as a Daikin reseller and has an unacceptable number of 1 star reviews. Heat pump companies have to have decent partners in the field willing to sell their product before consumers are really going to risk spending so much money on their product.