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Apple’s MO, at least in recent decades, is to let others blaze the trail into a new space, then do their own version that gets it right. Smartphones were a big

Apple’s MO, at least in recent decades, is to let others blaze the trail into a new space, then do their own version that gets it right. Smartphones were a big deal before the iPhone. People would talk about how they were addicted to checking email on their “crackberries.” But they were niche. You could see that they were going to be big, but they weren’t there yet. Then the iPhone catapulted smartphones from a popular niche to a ubiquitous product. Before the iPhone, they did the same thing with portable music players. Afterwards, it was the same story for tables and smart watches, although not with the same degree of ubiquity. Arguably it was the same for PCs (“personal computers,” not IBM-compatible machines, of course) and GUIs, way back when. What big upcoming thing would they do this with now? As you say, there really isn’t anything. Maybe VR/AR, but that isn’t even in the “popular niche” stage yet, the technology isn’t there yet, and it’s far from certain that it will ever be more than a tiny niche. Otherwise, what? Self-driving cars? That’s not a new market, that’s a product feature in an existing large, mature market. AI? That’s also looking like a feature rather than a new product category.

steveBK123 1y ago
You're 100% right, Apple as a fast-follower "getting it right" tech company, and there's nothing to fast follow right now. IoT/smarthome has been a niche/fad going nowhere since day 1. Smart speakers are commodities. They dabbled in an EV project, canned it. They've dabbled in AR with the VisionPro but really it's too early, if it will ever work. AI is software not hardware. Apple smartphones/tablets/watches have essentially killed 10x more hardware categories than have come into existence since. They sell a lot of headphones I guess. The only consumer electronics I buy now outside Apple are basically higher end niche hobbyist stuff in for example music or photography. Nothing that would ever sell at the price levels ($200-1000) or volumes (billions) to move the needle for Apple.
- SlowTao 1y ago
  This is something I have said for a while. A lot of the fields they are in now are largely 'solved'. Not saying there cannot be improvements but we are well into the diminishing returns phase. There is absolutely no risk of Apple going under any time in the next few decades but the era of rapid progress is over.
- ghostpepper 1y ago
  >> They sell a lot of headphones I guess. If you are still using bluetooth headphones as they existed 10+ years ago, and haven't tried using apple headphones with an apple computer/phone, you are missing a massive quality of life upgrade in terms of basically never having to do the pairing dance again after your initial purchase.
  - seec 1y ago
    There is such a mythology around that it's basically religious fervor at this point. Apple stuff isn't any better or more convenient than any other brand. The gold standard is multi-point Bluetooth which Apple doesn't do because they would rather have you locked in their "ecosystem". Joke's on them because even if you are a customer, you can very much get a good experience by avoiding the Apple stuff.
  - Tijdreiziger 1y ago
    You don’t have to do that with non-Apple headphones either. The bigger problem with Bluetooth headphones is that the batteries are non-replaceable, so consumers are incentivized to throw them out every few years (just like smartphones).
    - gosub100 1y ago
      This doesn't match my experience. Even gen 5 Bluetooth on android is still choc full of gotchas and erratic behavior.
    - int_19h 1y ago
      Some non-Apple headphones can pair to more than one device, but there's usually a hard limit, and it's fairly small. And you have to set each up separately. Apple headphones will roam between all Apple devices that you own, and it pretty much "just works". Of course, as soon as you step out of their ecosystem, not only you have to pair manually again, but it can only be paired to a single non-Apple device at a time.
graemep 1y ago
Other way round with GUIs. Apple were first to mass market, and MS were far more successful.
carlosjobim 1y ago
Let's hope eink or any other type of outdoors usable display. That's a new market of hundreds of millions of devices they can sell.
- steveBK123 1y ago
  I’ve dabbled in a bunch of those. Kindle. Remarkable. Daylight. The problem is it’s always a great 3rd or 4th device. Not sure there’s a high margin high volume demand for it.
  - wat10000 1y ago
    I think regular LCD/OLED displays will become fully daylight capable before these specialized displays become high volume. We’re almost there today. My phone and laptop are usable outside in most conditions, but not great in direct sunlight. It’s not really the right technology for that environment, but the R&D money being poured into it is immense.
    - carlosjobim 1y ago
      LCD/OLED displays are hardly usable outdoors or in well-lit spaces, unless you live in a very dark place geographically. They need to become at least twice as bright if not more to be pleasant to use, and by that point battery life and heat starts to become a problem. But if they are able to make it, I'm all the happier. If Apple manages to make a fully daylight compatible device (whichever display technology), then they will have unlocked sales of hundreds of millions of devices. Because who doesn't want to get out of the cave?
      - fennecbutt 1y ago
        Apple don't make displays. So they won't manage to make anything of the sort.
        carlosjobim 1y ago

steveBK123 1y ago

You're 100% right, Apple as a fast-follower "getting it right" tech company, and there's nothing to fast follow right now. IoT/smarthome has been a niche/fad going nowhere since day 1. Smart speakers are commodities. They dabbled in an EV project, canned it. They've dabbled in AR with the VisionPro but really it's too early, if it will ever work. AI is software not hardware. Apple smartphones/tablets/watches have essentially killed 10x more hardware categories than have come into existence since. They sell a lot of headphones I guess. The only consumer electronics I buy now outside Apple are basically higher end niche hobbyist stuff in for example music or photography. Nothing that would ever sell at the price levels ($200-1000) or volumes (billions) to move the needle for Apple.

SlowTao 1y ago
This is something I have said for a while. A lot of the fields they are in now are largely 'solved'. Not saying there cannot be improvements but we are well into the diminishing returns phase. There is absolutely no risk of Apple going under any time in the next few decades but the era of rapid progress is over.
ghostpepper 1y ago
>> They sell a lot of headphones I guess. If you are still using bluetooth headphones as they existed 10+ years ago, and haven't tried using apple headphones with an apple computer/phone, you are missing a massive quality of life upgrade in terms of basically never having to do the pairing dance again after your initial purchase.
- seec 1y ago
  There is such a mythology around that it's basically religious fervor at this point. Apple stuff isn't any better or more convenient than any other brand. The gold standard is multi-point Bluetooth which Apple doesn't do because they would rather have you locked in their "ecosystem". Joke's on them because even if you are a customer, you can very much get a good experience by avoiding the Apple stuff.
- Tijdreiziger 1y ago
  You don’t have to do that with non-Apple headphones either. The bigger problem with Bluetooth headphones is that the batteries are non-replaceable, so consumers are incentivized to throw them out every few years (just like smartphones).
  - gosub100 1y ago
    This doesn't match my experience. Even gen 5 Bluetooth on android is still choc full of gotchas and erratic behavior.
  - int_19h 1y ago
    Some non-Apple headphones can pair to more than one device, but there's usually a hard limit, and it's fairly small. And you have to set each up separately. Apple headphones will roam between all Apple devices that you own, and it pretty much "just works". Of course, as soon as you step out of their ecosystem, not only you have to pair manually again, but it can only be paired to a single non-Apple device at a time.

graemep 1y ago

Other way round with GUIs. Apple were first to mass market, and MS were far more successful.

carlosjobim 1y ago

Let's hope eink or any other type of outdoors usable display. That's a new market of hundreds of millions of devices they can sell.

steveBK123 1y ago
I’ve dabbled in a bunch of those. Kindle. Remarkable. Daylight. The problem is it’s always a great 3rd or 4th device. Not sure there’s a high margin high volume demand for it.
- wat10000 1y ago
  I think regular LCD/OLED displays will become fully daylight capable before these specialized displays become high volume. We’re almost there today. My phone and laptop are usable outside in most conditions, but not great in direct sunlight. It’s not really the right technology for that environment, but the R&D money being poured into it is immense.
  - carlosjobim 1y ago
    LCD/OLED displays are hardly usable outdoors or in well-lit spaces, unless you live in a very dark place geographically. They need to become at least twice as bright if not more to be pleasant to use, and by that point battery life and heat starts to become a problem. But if they are able to make it, I'm all the happier. If Apple manages to make a fully daylight compatible device (whichever display technology), then they will have unlocked sales of hundreds of millions of devices. Because who doesn't want to get out of the cave?
    - fennecbutt 1y ago
      Apple don't make displays. So they won't manage to make anything of the sort.
      - carlosjobim 1y ago