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> Apple is basically a smartphone company at this point, and smartphone sales are plummeting. iPhone sales aren’t plummeting at all: https://www.statista.com/

> Apple is basically a smartphone company at this point, and smartphone sales are plummeting. iPhone sales aren’t plummeting at all: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-ipho... https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/ https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/

cjbgkagh 1y ago
There seems to have been a downward trend for smartphones since 2017. Growth is either from an expanding market or an expanding market share, since it’s not an expanding market that leaves the market share. I would image there is some substitution, with iPhones lasting longer on average it becomes more cost effective to switch to iPhones so they capture more market share. But if the general market doesn’t expand then it’s a fairly safe assumption that the new converts are going to wait before upgrading meaning that a decrease in sales is already partially baked in. My anecdotal datapoint is 4 iPhones in 16 years which makes them rather cheap on an annual basis. Edit: I had assumed that parent was correct, but as the peer pointed out iPhone sales have declined
wohoef 1y ago
This is missing the last 7 years of data…
andy99 1y ago
The graph I see on that link goes only to 2018 and seems to show slight decline. What is the takeaway meant here?
- JimDabell 1y ago
  Sorry, added a second source with more up to date data.
  - autobodie 1y ago
    the second source shows sales have been increasing.
    - refulgentis 1y ago
      This threads confusing so I'll jump in! Well, no, it shows: 2021 < 2023 2022 < 2021 2023 > 2021 2024 ??
      - autobodie 1y ago
        2023 > all previous years
        refulgentis 1y ago
        That's not true, though! We can see the bar for 2021 is longer than 2023! We can see the table value for 2021 is > 2023! Screenshots, for sales, from 2nd link, i.e. what we are told to look to see 2021 < 2023: https://imgur.com/a/CpGWbWM https://imgur.com/a/CpGWbWM (although, my comment makes a hash of the whole thing and says 2021 is both < and > than 2023. Sigh.) (n.b. not trying to be aggressive, or disagree, or make a statement about the overall premise that sales are declining. Just mildly amused by the confusion in the thread) (my $0.02 would be that we're seeing the same general stasis that was presumed after the iPhone 6 release, but really, we just need more data (2021 was COVID stimmy high)) (but my $0.02 should be that "yeah stuff plateaued, or at least no more hypergrowth, post-2018" because this is what we were shown on the Pixel team at Google, and a little birdy told me that's how Apple thinks about it)
        JimDabell 1y ago
        > but my $0.02 should be that "yeah stuff plateaued, or at least no more hypergrowth, post-2018" Note that what was being claimed was that “Apple is basically a smartphone company at this point, and smartphone sales are plummeting”. Whether iPhone sales are growing, bounced around a bit, or have plateaued is irrelevant. It’s pretty clear they are not plummeting.
jcranmer 1y ago
A graph whose data ends in 2018 isn't strong evidence for "they aren't plummeting." That said, doing some searches for newer information (e.g., https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/ https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/) suggests that iPhone sales aren't plummeting but are instead rather stable. (Although I wonder how much of that is services attributed to iPhone as opposed to solely the sales revenue from iPhone, the source doesn't make that clear).
- WrongAssumption 1y ago
  How does the source not make it clear? The first two bullets from your source. “Apple generated $390.8 billion revenue in 2024, 51% came from iPhone sales Apple Services is the second largest division, responsible for 24% of revenue in 2024”
  - AlecSchueler 1y ago
    Do either of those facts point to increases in iPhone sales?
    - ceejayoz 1y ago
      The second source’s first paragraph says “with total sales expected to surpass previous records” for 2023, at least.
      - somenameforme 1y ago
        Sales are accounted for in $ terms, not units sold. It's the same thing with Hollywood. You might think movies are more popular than ever thanks to record breaking sales (pre-COVID at least). In reality, we reached peak movie, in terms of tickets sold, in 2002! [1] Back to iPhones, this [2] page shows their stats by units sold (about half way down). iPhone is essentially treading water if those data are correct (with a peak in 2015 overcome twice since, but by ~1% each time), but I strongly suspect that that's showing units shipped and not units sold, as iPhone sales declining has been universally reported. [1] - https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ [2] - https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/ https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/
nixpulvis 1y ago
While sales may not be plummeting. Hype around the market sure has. Nobody is really that excited about the next iPhone anymore.
- op00to 1y ago
  This is the first time in a long time I’m not interested in replacing my phone after a year.
  - skeeter2020 1y ago
    which when you look at your device, it's cost and what you use it for, should not be all that remarkable of a statement. I mean, what if you replaced "phone" with car, house or partner?
    - op00to 1y ago
      I bet id buy a new car more frequently if cars were first invented! As it is, I bought my car new and is 20 years old in great condition. Partner … I mean, who wouldn’t want to trade in for a new model if it weren’t for the social concerns? (I kiiiid I kiiid)
      - Affric 1y ago
        If you could get the same partner with more capabilities and less wear and tear with all important information transferred into the new one every year it sounds pretty appealing. I have bought two phones since 2010
  - ghushn3 1y ago
    That's probably pretty healthy -- phones these days should comfortably last you several years. I consider folks who buy a new phone every year these days to be engaging in pretty conspicuous consumption.
- me_smith 1y ago
  The last time I bought the newest iPhone was iPhone 5. In the past, I’ve been getting hand me downs since most people change their phone between 12-18 months. I’m still using an iPhone X. I can’t upgrade the iOS at the moment so looking forward to getting an iPhone 13 in the next year or so. I agree with you. Hand me downs aren’t coming as fast as they used to.

cjbgkagh 1y ago

There seems to have been a downward trend for smartphones since 2017. Growth is either from an expanding market or an expanding market share, since it’s not an expanding market that leaves the market share. I would image there is some substitution, with iPhones lasting longer on average it becomes more cost effective to switch to iPhones so they capture more market share. But if the general market doesn’t expand then it’s a fairly safe assumption that the new converts are going to wait before upgrading meaning that a decrease in sales is already partially baked in. My anecdotal datapoint is 4 iPhones in 16 years which makes them rather cheap on an annual basis. Edit: I had assumed that parent was correct, but as the peer pointed out iPhone sales have declined

wohoef 1y ago

This is missing the last 7 years of data…

andy99 1y ago

The graph I see on that link goes only to 2018 and seems to show slight decline. What is the takeaway meant here?

JimDabell 1y ago
Sorry, added a second source with more up to date data.
- autobodie 1y ago
  the second source shows sales have been increasing.
  - refulgentis 1y ago
    This threads confusing so I'll jump in! Well, no, it shows: 2021 < 2023 2022 < 2021 2023 > 2021 2024 ??
    - autobodie 1y ago
      2023 > all previous years
      - refulgentis 1y ago
        That's not true, though! We can see the bar for 2021 is longer than 2023! We can see the table value for 2021 is > 2023! Screenshots, for sales, from 2nd link, i.e. what we are told to look to see 2021 < 2023: https://imgur.com/a/CpGWbWM https://imgur.com/a/CpGWbWM (although, my comment makes a hash of the whole thing and says 2021 is both < and > than 2023. Sigh.) (n.b. not trying to be aggressive, or disagree, or make a statement about the overall premise that sales are declining. Just mildly amused by the confusion in the thread) (my $0.02 would be that we're seeing the same general stasis that was presumed after the iPhone 6 release, but really, we just need more data (2021 was COVID stimmy high)) (but my $0.02 should be that "yeah stuff plateaued, or at least no more hypergrowth, post-2018" because this is what we were shown on the Pixel team at Google, and a little birdy told me that's how Apple thinks about it)
        JimDabell 1y ago
        > but my $0.02 should be that "yeah stuff plateaued, or at least no more hypergrowth, post-2018" Note that what was being claimed was that “Apple is basically a smartphone company at this point, and smartphone sales are plummeting”. Whether iPhone sales are growing, bounced around a bit, or have plateaued is irrelevant. It’s pretty clear they are not plummeting.

jcranmer 1y ago

A graph whose data ends in 2018 isn't strong evidence for "they aren't plummeting." That said, doing some searches for newer information (e.g., https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/ https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/) suggests that iPhone sales aren't plummeting but are instead rather stable. (Although I wonder how much of that is services attributed to iPhone as opposed to solely the sales revenue from iPhone, the source doesn't make that clear).

WrongAssumption 1y ago
How does the source not make it clear? The first two bullets from your source. “Apple generated $390.8 billion revenue in 2024, 51% came from iPhone sales Apple Services is the second largest division, responsible for 24% of revenue in 2024”
- AlecSchueler 1y ago
  Do either of those facts point to increases in iPhone sales?
  - ceejayoz 1y ago
    The second source’s first paragraph says “with total sales expected to surpass previous records” for 2023, at least.
    - somenameforme 1y ago
      Sales are accounted for in $ terms, not units sold. It's the same thing with Hollywood. You might think movies are more popular than ever thanks to record breaking sales (pre-COVID at least). In reality, we reached peak movie, in terms of tickets sold, in 2002! [1] Back to iPhones, this [2] page shows their stats by units sold (about half way down). iPhone is essentially treading water if those data are correct (with a peak in 2015 overcome twice since, but by ~1% each time), but I strongly suspect that that's showing units shipped and not units sold, as iPhone sales declining has been universally reported. [1] - https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ [2] - https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/ https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/

nixpulvis 1y ago

While sales may not be plummeting. Hype around the market sure has. Nobody is really that excited about the next iPhone anymore.

op00to 1y ago
This is the first time in a long time I’m not interested in replacing my phone after a year.
- skeeter2020 1y ago
  which when you look at your device, it's cost and what you use it for, should not be all that remarkable of a statement. I mean, what if you replaced "phone" with car, house or partner?
  - op00to 1y ago
    I bet id buy a new car more frequently if cars were first invented! As it is, I bought my car new and is 20 years old in great condition. Partner … I mean, who wouldn’t want to trade in for a new model if it weren’t for the social concerns? (I kiiiid I kiiid)
    - Affric 1y ago
      If you could get the same partner with more capabilities and less wear and tear with all important information transferred into the new one every year it sounds pretty appealing. I have bought two phones since 2010
- ghushn3 1y ago
  That's probably pretty healthy -- phones these days should comfortably last you several years. I consider folks who buy a new phone every year these days to be engaging in pretty conspicuous consumption.
me_smith 1y ago
The last time I bought the newest iPhone was iPhone 5. In the past, I’ve been getting hand me downs since most people change their phone between 12-18 months. I’m still using an iPhone X. I can’t upgrade the iOS at the moment so looking forward to getting an iPhone 13 in the next year or so. I agree with you. Hand me downs aren’t coming as fast as they used to.