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If you throw some data at a clustering algorithm, the clustering algorithm is guaranteed to give you clusters back. So I'm not convinced about the results sugge

If you throw some data at a clustering algorithm, the clustering algorithm is guaranteed to give you clusters back. So I'm not convinced about the results suggesting a precise pattern of rapid aging.

petesergeant 1y ago
Is it possible that scientists employed at Stanford will have also had this insight, and worked around it?
- deegles 1y ago
  possible, yes. did they? that's the question
  - blackbear_ 1y ago
    Yes they did, and published it all. Sometimes I can't believe how low discussions on HN can fall. Did really nobody in this thread bother to check this? Are we fine disparaging research solely based on the fact that they used a method that gives bad results with bad inputs (which doesn't?) and their incentives could be misaligned (whose aren't?)? If there are well justified concerns about the method or data then by all means let's talk about it, but please let's all try to keep low effort anti intellectual conspiracy theories away from here.
    - riskassessment 1y ago
      I read the paper before I made my original comment. They fit a clustering algorithm and then hand waved at intepreting the clusters. 'Omics papers get away with a lot of hand waving. Yeah they did some peak detection and found peaks, but you are going to find peaks in a random walk. They didn't test the theory that rapid aging occurs at those two specific time points in an independent hold out set. Most importantly even if these peaks exist this paper does not prove they are biological. They could correspond to common socially driven changes in behavior
      - blackbear_ 1y ago
        > I read the paper before I made my original comment. That's good, now I'm wondering about the others in the thread. > 'Omics papers get away with a lot of hand waving Making assumptions and interpreting results is part of any type of analysis, especially for unsupervised learning approaches like clustering. Or maybe I am missing something: how do you not-handwave the results of a clustering analysis if you don't have any supervision signal? In any case, I agree that omics in particular take many more liberties than usual with their interpretations. And yet, sometimes they come up with useful and important finding. Yes, a broken clock...2x a day, but maybe after working in the same field for many years one can gain some insights and intuitions. > but you are going to find peaks in a random walk I would hope so since a random walk has pretty obvious peaks, and it's not hard to test if the peak is significantly beyond the level expected due to chance. Do you have actual concerns about the data and the peaks they found, or are we back at wondering about all the fallacies that they may or may have not committed? > They didn't test the theory that rapid aging occurs at those two specific time points in an independent hold out set. This is a glaring omission, I agree. > this paper does not prove they are biological. They could correspond to common socially driven changes in behavior. True, but it dot make this paper worth any less. If anything, it's a great question for follow-up work.
- f1shy 1y ago
  It is also very possible that they have big incentives to ignore those just to get something published, don't you think?
bboygravity 1y ago
Are you at or over 40? Anecdotally I feel I noticed a very fast ageing speed between 38 and 40. Suddenly got white hairs, feel more tired, more wrinkles, way harder to keep VO2max up (I run a lot), muscle sores after training suddenly lasting up to 3 days instead of 1, face looks older, etc. I feel like that all happened real fast around this age.
- isoprophlex 1y ago
  I'm 38. We had three kids over a period of 8 years. Looking at old pictures I seemingly held on for a long while, until something hit me at 35-36?! It's like there's two versions of me now, the one who was somehow moderately fit by biochemical decree, with a healthy amount of flesh to his face, voluminous dark blonde hair and a pleasant complexion... ... And the grey haired, weathered, lined, dessicated mummy I see in the mirror. I love my kids dearly but the constant caring really takes something out of you. That and the whole getting older thing in TFA. I keep telling myself I'll get a gym membership soon to reclaim some of my dignity.
  - bboygravity 1y ago
    Exercise is not optional. Go for it! And try not to be in the majority group of gym goers who pay the membership without attending ;)
    - gspetr 1y ago
      Exactly. As a regular at a non-hardcore gym, I had never appreciated it until I saw the gym sell 12mo membership for the price of 4x 1mo, and then I tried to remember how many people sticked around for a meaningful period. Very few men. No women. The nearest gym is truly the best gym for 90% of people, as everyone seems to look for excuses not to go. So just go, people there will not bite you or shame you.
      - isoprophlex 1y ago
        Haha yes the pricing really tells you all you need to know about how many people struggle to make exercise a habit...
bongodongobob 1y ago
Sounds like something someone < 40 would say. To anyone over, I feel like this study is pretty obvious. I'm in my early 40's and whatever change this is, has been discussed multiple times with my peers, active lifestyle or not, wealth or not, married or not, physical career or not. Everything starts to feel a little harder, whether it's exercise, problem solving, memory, sleep, sex drive, appetite, fuckin everything. Things change in your late 30s, for sure. All young people think they are special and age is just a number. The rest of the population knows that isn't true. Spare me your weight lifting 80 year old, or "my grandpa worked the farm til he was 90" stuff, we all know those are extreme outliers.
- uamgeoalsk 1y ago
  Turning 44 this year and none of this has hit me at all? Still staying up all night on weekends, working harder than I ever did (not more hours, though), feeling more motivated to take on both paid and unpaid work outside of my job. And my sex drive just as strong (and just as unfulfilled!) as in my 20s and 30s.
  - kilroy123 1y ago
    I'm turning 40 very soon and feel the same. People also often tell me I look and seem younger than my age. But I also prioritize sleeping 8 hours a night. Eating low carb. Regular exercise. Plus I have no kids. :-)

If you throw some data at a clustering algorithm, the clustering algorithm is guaranteed to give you clusters back. So I'm not convinced about the results suggesting a precise pattern of rapid aging.

petesergeant 1y ago

Is it possible that scientists employed at Stanford will have also had this insight, and worked around it?

deegles 1y ago
possible, yes. did they? that's the question
- blackbear_ 1y ago
  Yes they did, and published it all. Sometimes I can't believe how low discussions on HN can fall. Did really nobody in this thread bother to check this? Are we fine disparaging research solely based on the fact that they used a method that gives bad results with bad inputs (which doesn't?) and their incentives could be misaligned (whose aren't?)? If there are well justified concerns about the method or data then by all means let's talk about it, but please let's all try to keep low effort anti intellectual conspiracy theories away from here.
  - riskassessment 1y ago
    I read the paper before I made my original comment. They fit a clustering algorithm and then hand waved at intepreting the clusters. 'Omics papers get away with a lot of hand waving. Yeah they did some peak detection and found peaks, but you are going to find peaks in a random walk. They didn't test the theory that rapid aging occurs at those two specific time points in an independent hold out set. Most importantly even if these peaks exist this paper does not prove they are biological. They could correspond to common socially driven changes in behavior
    - blackbear_ 1y ago
      > I read the paper before I made my original comment. That's good, now I'm wondering about the others in the thread. > 'Omics papers get away with a lot of hand waving Making assumptions and interpreting results is part of any type of analysis, especially for unsupervised learning approaches like clustering. Or maybe I am missing something: how do you not-handwave the results of a clustering analysis if you don't have any supervision signal? In any case, I agree that omics in particular take many more liberties than usual with their interpretations. And yet, sometimes they come up with useful and important finding. Yes, a broken clock...2x a day, but maybe after working in the same field for many years one can gain some insights and intuitions. > but you are going to find peaks in a random walk I would hope so since a random walk has pretty obvious peaks, and it's not hard to test if the peak is significantly beyond the level expected due to chance. Do you have actual concerns about the data and the peaks they found, or are we back at wondering about all the fallacies that they may or may have not committed? > They didn't test the theory that rapid aging occurs at those two specific time points in an independent hold out set. This is a glaring omission, I agree. > this paper does not prove they are biological. They could correspond to common socially driven changes in behavior. True, but it dot make this paper worth any less. If anything, it's a great question for follow-up work.
f1shy 1y ago
It is also very possible that they have big incentives to ignore those just to get something published, don't you think?

bboygravity 1y ago

Are you at or over 40? Anecdotally I feel I noticed a very fast ageing speed between 38 and 40. Suddenly got white hairs, feel more tired, more wrinkles, way harder to keep VO2max up (I run a lot), muscle sores after training suddenly lasting up to 3 days instead of 1, face looks older, etc. I feel like that all happened real fast around this age.

isoprophlex 1y ago
I'm 38. We had three kids over a period of 8 years. Looking at old pictures I seemingly held on for a long while, until something hit me at 35-36?! It's like there's two versions of me now, the one who was somehow moderately fit by biochemical decree, with a healthy amount of flesh to his face, voluminous dark blonde hair and a pleasant complexion... ... And the grey haired, weathered, lined, dessicated mummy I see in the mirror. I love my kids dearly but the constant caring really takes something out of you. That and the whole getting older thing in TFA. I keep telling myself I'll get a gym membership soon to reclaim some of my dignity.
- bboygravity 1y ago
  Exercise is not optional. Go for it! And try not to be in the majority group of gym goers who pay the membership without attending ;)
  - gspetr 1y ago
    Exactly. As a regular at a non-hardcore gym, I had never appreciated it until I saw the gym sell 12mo membership for the price of 4x 1mo, and then I tried to remember how many people sticked around for a meaningful period. Very few men. No women. The nearest gym is truly the best gym for 90% of people, as everyone seems to look for excuses not to go. So just go, people there will not bite you or shame you.
    - isoprophlex 1y ago
      Haha yes the pricing really tells you all you need to know about how many people struggle to make exercise a habit...

bongodongobob 1y ago

Sounds like something someone < 40 would say. To anyone over, I feel like this study is pretty obvious. I'm in my early 40's and whatever change this is, has been discussed multiple times with my peers, active lifestyle or not, wealth or not, married or not, physical career or not. Everything starts to feel a little harder, whether it's exercise, problem solving, memory, sleep, sex drive, appetite, fuckin everything. Things change in your late 30s, for sure. All young people think they are special and age is just a number. The rest of the population knows that isn't true. Spare me your weight lifting 80 year old, or "my grandpa worked the farm til he was 90" stuff, we all know those are extreme outliers.

uamgeoalsk 1y ago
Turning 44 this year and none of this has hit me at all? Still staying up all night on weekends, working harder than I ever did (not more hours, though), feeling more motivated to take on both paid and unpaid work outside of my job. And my sex drive just as strong (and just as unfulfilled!) as in my 20s and 30s.
- kilroy123 1y ago
  I'm turning 40 very soon and feel the same. People also often tell me I look and seem younger than my age. But I also prioritize sleeping 8 hours a night. Eating low carb. Regular exercise. Plus I have no kids. :-)