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I know that Tesla sometimes feels like a religion but there just might be a good time to short the stock. Before going out and saying it's bad software, short t
by m101 1y ago
I know that Tesla sometimes feels like a religion but there just might be a good time to short the stock. Before going out and saying it's bad software, short the stock first and then ethically berate it. I just did.
It's a 200 pe stock, sales are falling, so it won't have earnings to speak of next quarter. High pe stocks need growth to justify their multiples. Tesla is not growing.
Also if this robotaxi service isn't pulled off the road soon then it will be limited to a very select set of locations. If someone has to sit in these cars to monitor them all the time then Tesla may be losing money on every journey.
This premature move in releasing the robotaxi is certainly stock pumping.
- LZ_Khan 1y agoI just shorted it as well.. 3 days before you. And I got roasted. Invest with caution.
- m101 1y agoI feel you. I got lucky.. for now. Sometimes you just got to pick the right day as it was better than yesterday.
- misiti3780 1y agoA lot of people have shorted TSLA and lost a lot of money - See Jim Chanos. I actually agree the price is going to go down before it goes up, but I wouldnt waste money trying to time it Long term I think they are fine - I think they will have solved FSD and no one will remember Elon's politics.
- m101 1y agoTesla was actually growing then. This time is totally different.
- misiti3780 1y agoIf you think Tesla is a car company, then yes I agree with you, it looks and acts like a meme stock. I think they're an AI company that has amazing manufacturing processes that makes cars. Of course I might be wrong, but the value can be justified if I'm right.
- m101 1y agoDon't get me wrong, what they have achieved is incredible, but that doesn't mean they are infinitely valuable. There is a fair price.
- misiti3780 1y agoTime will tell. My prediction is it's going to head south to ~200 and then 200->1-4K by 2030
- laidoffamazon 1y agoIt seems far too early to say they will solve FSD?
- misiti3780 1y agoI'm a daily user and biased, but my anecdotal experience is they will solve it. Also this article is about them taking the first step to solving it.
- SirFatty 1y agoHaven't they been promising it for years? Even selling the ability to upgrade to it once it's available?
- misiti3780 1y agoyes
- m101 1y agoI believe they will but that doesn't negate my comments on price.
- tsimionescu 1y agoIt's funny to think that Tesla, the only self driving company that has no working form of self driving, is the one that will "solve FSD". Look at Waymo or Mercedes if you want to see what working FSD looks like. Tesla isn't even in the same ballpark yet.
- Workaccount2 1y agoI have lost enormous money shorting Tesla over the years. I'm even short right now. I can tell you though, Tesla is the only company doing two things: Making full self driving car that doesn't need an expensive and expansive sensor suite. Just off the shelf cameras and a GPU. Making full self driving that can drive anywhere, no pre-mapping needed. Waymo probably could do without pre-mapping, Mercedes probably not. Right now though Tesla is the only player with a car that you can buy and will "self drive" anywhere in the country. The other car companies cars only work on select pre-mapped roads, and IIRC Mercedes only works on highways and over 40mph. The bet against Tesla is that they will not be able to pull this off. Not that competitors will beat them to the punch. If Tesla did get FSD with cameras on par with Waymo, Waymo would likely be unable to compete.
- archagon 1y agoThey're also the only car company gleefully making die-hard political enemies around the world.
- RivieraKid 1y agoPart of me agrees with what you said, but my primary view is: There's no indication that Tesla has solved the fundamental challenge of self-driving - making the system incredibly reliable and safe and able to handle myriads of rare situations. Tesla is at a point where multiple self-driving companies were years ago. The general experience from this field is that scaling is extremely hard because improving reliability and safety by orders of magnitude is extremely hard. I think people are too hung up on the sensor suite. Once you solve the fundamental problem, a sensor suite is kind of an implementation detail. Waymo's system is robust to the removal of any sensor type / map. There's a good chance that Waymo in a camera-only mode would perform better than the Tesla robotaxi. Mapping is not an issue, it's less expensive than people expect and you only need to do it once, so the cost per mile is approximately zero. And in Waymo's case, there's a lot of room for streamlining the process. The more you map, the easier and faster it gets. BTW, MobilEye has a very lightweight and crowdsourced mapping process, they're also camera-centric and have a cheap hardware package. Waymo's long-term goal is a a system that is cheap and works everywhere. They've spent 15 years with a focus on solving the hard problem. Now they seem to be close to the finish line and they're shifting their focus and money into the easier stuff, optimizing hardware and expansion.
- mikestew 1y agoGood luck with that. Net profits down 71% YOY? Stock goes up 10% on the news. You think it's going to go down because Robotaxi sucks? Someone will be along shortly (as they always are) to reuse a cliche about irrationality.
- m101 1y agoPlease buy the stock (again) now to confirm your view.
- mikestew 1y agoApparently the time to buy was this morning. But I don't need to confirm anything, do what you like with your money, including watching in amazement at how fast a short position can go bad.
- m101 1y agoOne shouldn't be buying a stock like Tesla for an 8% uplift. If it's worth it at 320 it's worth it at 348. I didn't post my comments or short the stock this morning, but I was thinking about it. This just seems like good timing
- mikestew 1y agoSo you don't have real money on the line? This conversation got boring fast. Come back when you've got an actual short position.
- tonymet 1y agoprofits go down with new strategic investment.
- mikestew 1y agoProfits go down when fewer people are buying your product, too. Which seems to be the case with TSLA for the most part.
- ink_13 1y agoAs I write this comment, it's up 8.23% today alone (from ~322 to ~348). TSLA is a meme stock at this point to which ordinary expectations do not apply. The price is unmoored from what the company does. _By the book_ I agree, it should be shorted, but I wouldn't.
- m101 1y agoWhat better day to short than today. There is a limit to where the market can whip around a 1tn market cap stock. This is not meme stock 10x downside territory.
- RivieraKid 1y ago> TSLA is a meme stock at this point to which ordinary expectations do not apply. Eventually they do. At this point the bull thesis is still plausible to a lot of investors but this won't last forever.
- lern_too_spel 1y ago> This premature move in releasing the robotaxi is certainly stock pumping. It is. Inevitably, when the promised rollout ramp up doesn't happen, there will be another pump. This is not his first rodeo. The only thing that can stop another pump is competitors scaling first, not repeated Robotaxi failures (which I fully expect).
- TheAlchemist 1y agoTesla is going bankrupt or bought by a competitor at some point and Elon is going to prison at some point. I would be shocked if that's not the case. It's all smokes and mirrors, manipulation, deception and it will eventually come back to earth. However, there is a little saying - 'Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" that you seem to want to learn the hard way ! PS. I'm short the stock - but it's a hugely risky bet that I would not recommend to anyone.
- pfisherman 1y agoYou mean Tesla will merge with Twitter / XAI, and market cap will soar to $50T on Elon’s promises of “AGI next year”.
- addandsubtract 1y agoWe will never see the world's richest man being held accountable for anything in the USA. It could be as illegal as you could imagine; there would be no meaningful consequence. Smoke, mirrors, manipulation, and deception are the basis of the American Dream™
- leesec 1y agoThey have 36 billion in the bank and still make 5-15b per year. Is this bankrupt in the room with us right now?
- addandsubtract 1y ago> Before going out and saying it's bad software, short the stock first and then ethically berate it. Wouldn't it be more ethical to berate a company you're not invested in? Shorting it and berating it just seems like you're pushing your position.
- itsoktocry 1y ago>Shorting it and berating it just seems like you're pushing your position. This is the Robinhood generation's way of seeing things: everything is a grift. If you think Tesla is crap, saying so and backing it up with your dollars is totally normal.