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First of all, I disagree with your characterization of what the conventional wisdom is. I don't think most people are thinking about this at all. Most people wi

First of all, I disagree with your characterization of what the conventional wisdom is. I don't think most people are thinking about this at all. Most people will come down on rah rah America or boo war is bad, not "it's bad that specifically only countries that don't have nuclear weapons get attacked, because of the bad incentives". But if this were the conventional wisdom, I'd say that it's clearly right, and you're doing 5d chess to avoid looking it in the face.

GMoromisato 1y ago
> First of all, I disagree with your characterization of what the conventional wisdom is. Okay, you could be right about that. I don't know. > But if this were the conventional wisdom, I'd say that it's clearly right That's really the crux of the disagreement: I don't see it as being clearly right. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe it's biased reasoning on my part (wouldn't be the first time). But I don't think it is obvious how the Iranian regime is going to react. I don't think any one person inside Iran knows how the regime is going to react yet (maybe not even the Khamenei). It sounds like you think it's obvious how things will play out. That's cool, but that's where we disagree.