3 ms·

Russia came in unprepared for this war, and is not prepared for a traditional peer conflict, but is building out a LOT of drone production capacity which will n

Russia came in unprepared for this war, and is not prepared for a traditional peer conflict, but is building out a LOT of drone production capacity which will now be decisive in regional wars. It's not going to save Iran from US stratospheric bombers, but yes the capability to throw 200 de-facto cruise missiles and 4,000 FPV drones a day at the front lines is a huge threat to anyone unfortunate enough to share a border with Russia.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
I was reading that Russia’s economy is on the brink of recession. Any thoughts on what would push it to failure? Failed economies have a hard time waging war. https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-recession-ukraine-conflict-9d105fd1ac8c28908839b01f7d300ebd https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-recession-ukraine-...
- doener 1y ago
  If things continue as they are, there is good reason to believe that this point will be reached automatically: https://youtu.be/gpyLQvNsUw4 https://youtu.be/gpyLQvNsUw4
- pydry 1y ago
  It actually already collapsed in 2022-2023 according to projections from March 2022: https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-for-collapse-178605 https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-fo... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-biggest-economic-collapse-170531447.html?guccounter=1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-biggest-economic... https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/vladimir-putin-economy-sanctions-swift-fallout/623330/ https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/vlad... nm, Im sure the more up to date projections are accurate and the projections from 2022, 2023, 2024 and early 2025 were abberations.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Russian Banks Fear Debt Crisis Is Coming as War Strains Economy - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/russian-banks-fear-debt-crisis-is-coming-as-war-strains-economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/russian-b... | https://archive.today/3DUEG https://archive.today/3DUEG - June 26th, 2025 > Tensions among Putin’s top officials over risks to the economy spilled into the open at the flagship St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week. > “We are on the verge of slipping into a recession,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said during a panel discussion in which Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina argued the economy was experiencing a necessary cooling. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged “we’re going through a cold spell now.” > Putin made his position clear in a speech the following day. “Some specialists, experts, point to the risks of stagnation and even recession,” he said. “This, of course, should not be allowed under any circumstances.”
- bpodgursky 1y ago
  Russia is a petrostate. The only thing that would critically damage Russia's economy is persistently low oil prices. In the near term, the only way to get there is probably 100% uncapping US production, maybe holding our nose and getting Venezuela's production back up.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- jemmyw 1y ago
  Recession is probably a bit meaningless at this point. The Russian economy is already quite small in relation to the country size and population. They have plenty of natural resources though, and oil which they are exporting. In many ways it's an economy that comes pre-collapsed. But the govt has a lot of leeway to keep the internal economy going. Interest rates are 20%, without which inflation would be running away - although, they have capital controls and are disconnected from the majority of the world's financial systems so how much sense does currency conversion have anyway? At some point things will have to come to a head because civilian businesses, military manufacturing and military service are competing for the same workforce, one of those actually consuming the people. The govt can keep things going for a long time under difficult conditions though. More of a concern is probably what happens when the war ends. Can they even let the war end now? They have a war economy and going back is going to be hard.
- artem247 1y ago
  [dead]

toomuchtodo 1y ago

I was reading that Russia’s economy is on the brink of recession. Any thoughts on what would push it to failure? Failed economies have a hard time waging war. https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-recession-ukraine-conflict-9d105fd1ac8c28908839b01f7d300ebd https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-recession-ukraine-...

doener 1y ago
If things continue as they are, there is good reason to believe that this point will be reached automatically: https://youtu.be/gpyLQvNsUw4 https://youtu.be/gpyLQvNsUw4
pydry 1y ago
It actually already collapsed in 2022-2023 according to projections from March 2022: https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-for-collapse-178605 https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-fo... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-biggest-economic-collapse-170531447.html?guccounter=1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-biggest-economic... https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/vladimir-putin-economy-sanctions-swift-fallout/623330/ https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/vlad... nm, Im sure the more up to date projections are accurate and the projections from 2022, 2023, 2024 and early 2025 were abberations.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Russian Banks Fear Debt Crisis Is Coming as War Strains Economy - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/russian-banks-fear-debt-crisis-is-coming-as-war-strains-economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/russian-b... | https://archive.today/3DUEG https://archive.today/3DUEG - June 26th, 2025 > Tensions among Putin’s top officials over risks to the economy spilled into the open at the flagship St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week. > “We are on the verge of slipping into a recession,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said during a panel discussion in which Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina argued the economy was experiencing a necessary cooling. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged “we’re going through a cold spell now.” > Putin made his position clear in a speech the following day. “Some specialists, experts, point to the risks of stagnation and even recession,” he said. “This, of course, should not be allowed under any circumstances.”
bpodgursky 1y ago
Russia is a petrostate. The only thing that would critically damage Russia's economy is persistently low oil prices. In the near term, the only way to get there is probably 100% uncapping US production, maybe holding our nose and getting Venezuela's production back up.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
jemmyw 1y ago
Recession is probably a bit meaningless at this point. The Russian economy is already quite small in relation to the country size and population. They have plenty of natural resources though, and oil which they are exporting. In many ways it's an economy that comes pre-collapsed. But the govt has a lot of leeway to keep the internal economy going. Interest rates are 20%, without which inflation would be running away - although, they have capital controls and are disconnected from the majority of the world's financial systems so how much sense does currency conversion have anyway? At some point things will have to come to a head because civilian businesses, military manufacturing and military service are competing for the same workforce, one of those actually consuming the people. The govt can keep things going for a long time under difficult conditions though. More of a concern is probably what happens when the war ends. Can they even let the war end now? They have a war economy and going back is going to be hard.
artem247 1y ago
[dead]