4 ms·

But why not? Do you think that the general sentiment is somehow gone? Or that you can submit terrorists by force?

firesteelrain 1y ago
Because Iran's leadership isn’t stupid. They know a full-on attack against the US would bring overwhelming retaliation and possibly collapse the regime. They've been hit before (like when Soleimani was killed) and their response was pretty measured. They’ll do something to save face. Maybe hit a US base through proxies or ramp up attacks on Israel-but a direct war with the US? Not worth it for them. Too much to lose.
- the_gipsy 1y ago
  9/11 and the other attacks were not a war, precisely. You'll get a decade of terrorism, and the more you bomb Iran the worse it will get.
  - firesteelrain 1y ago
    I don’t think we’d see something like 9/11 again. Attacks on the US homeland bring a level of blowback that even Iran’s hardliners would want to avoid. But I totally agree there’ll be fallout in the region. Expect more proxy attacks on US bases, shipping lanes, and of course Israel. That kind of long, drawn-out pressure is way more in line with how Iran operates. Not total war But why does Iran get to take workers hostage for 444 days in 1979, conduct Beirut embassy bombing in 1983, then the Beirut barracks bombing in same year, 1982-1991 Hezbollah (Iran sponsored) kidnappings of Americans in Lebanon, TWA 847 Hijacking, December 1983 Kuwait Embassy Bombing, June 1996 Khobar Towers Bombing, multiple EFP attacks on US forces in Iraq, May 2011 Camp Liberty Rocket Attack, 2011 IRGC plot to assassinate US officials, Dec 2019 Kirkuk base attack, etc How is this any different than your 9/11 scenario and Iran has been doing it for 40 years?
    - the_gipsy 1y ago
      [flagged]
      - firesteelrain 1y ago
        [flagged]
        tomhow 1y ago
        > You are a pawn Don't comment like this on HN. Please observe the guidelines, especially these ones: Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community. Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes. Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        firesteelrain 1y ago
        Love how you comment back to me and not to his comment “ You're just a pawn for billionaires” Your bias is showing I have been following the guidelines. Your comment is misplaced on the wrong person.
        tomhow 1y ago
        We're routinely characterized as taking orders from billionaires, so, it's a change to be accused of that kind of bias. Fair enough to point out that the parent comment initiated it, though. I hadn't seen it (that's almost always what's happened when we're accused of bias in a subthread) but I've replied to them now. Do please have a re-read of the guidelines though. We want a variety of points of view to be represented here and we want HN to be a good place for discussing difficult topics, but that can only happen if people make more effort to keep to the guidelines for inherently-controversial topics like this.
  - energy123 1y ago
    > You'll get a decade of terrorism That's what people said when Israel fought back against Hezbollah. Lots of "this will make more terrorists". Turns out this was wrong. The war against Hezbollah ended terrorism. The literal opposite of the predictions people like you were making.

Because Iran's leadership isn’t stupid. They know a full-on attack against the US would bring overwhelming retaliation and possibly collapse the regime. They've been hit before (like when Soleimani was killed) and their response was pretty measured. They’ll do something to save face. Maybe hit a US base through proxies or ramp up attacks on Israel-but a direct war with the US? Not worth it for them. Too much to lose.

the_gipsy 1y ago
9/11 and the other attacks were not a war, precisely. You'll get a decade of terrorism, and the more you bomb Iran the worse it will get.
- firesteelrain 1y ago
  I don’t think we’d see something like 9/11 again. Attacks on the US homeland bring a level of blowback that even Iran’s hardliners would want to avoid. But I totally agree there’ll be fallout in the region. Expect more proxy attacks on US bases, shipping lanes, and of course Israel. That kind of long, drawn-out pressure is way more in line with how Iran operates. Not total war But why does Iran get to take workers hostage for 444 days in 1979, conduct Beirut embassy bombing in 1983, then the Beirut barracks bombing in same year, 1982-1991 Hezbollah (Iran sponsored) kidnappings of Americans in Lebanon, TWA 847 Hijacking, December 1983 Kuwait Embassy Bombing, June 1996 Khobar Towers Bombing, multiple EFP attacks on US forces in Iraq, May 2011 Camp Liberty Rocket Attack, 2011 IRGC plot to assassinate US officials, Dec 2019 Kirkuk base attack, etc How is this any different than your 9/11 scenario and Iran has been doing it for 40 years?
  - the_gipsy 1y ago
    [flagged]
    - firesteelrain 1y ago
      [flagged]
      - tomhow 1y ago
        > You are a pawn Don't comment like this on HN. Please observe the guidelines, especially these ones: Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community. Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes. Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        firesteelrain 1y ago
        Love how you comment back to me and not to his comment “ You're just a pawn for billionaires” Your bias is showing I have been following the guidelines. Your comment is misplaced on the wrong person.
        tomhow 1y ago
        We're routinely characterized as taking orders from billionaires, so, it's a change to be accused of that kind of bias. Fair enough to point out that the parent comment initiated it, though. I hadn't seen it (that's almost always what's happened when we're accused of bias in a subthread) but I've replied to them now. Do please have a re-read of the guidelines though. We want a variety of points of view to be represented here and we want HN to be a good place for discussing difficult topics, but that can only happen if people make more effort to keep to the guidelines for inherently-controversial topics like this.
- energy123 1y ago
  > You'll get a decade of terrorism That's what people said when Israel fought back against Hezbollah. Lots of "this will make more terrorists". Turns out this was wrong. The war against Hezbollah ended terrorism. The literal opposite of the predictions people like you were making.