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I feel a bit for Brian Acton - iirc he refused to sell because the 500M users paying $500M dollars was more than enough to fund his tiny team (of 30?), but when

I feel a bit for Brian Acton - iirc he refused to sell because the 500M users paying $500M dollars was more than enough to fund his tiny team (of 30?), but when the offer went up to 19B$ it's just kind of hard to turn down - there's extreme opportunity cost there. Most people would sell before that, 19B$ of principle is quite a lot. I think it's just if you're empire building - and Zuck is insanely good at this, one of the best - then it'll never be optimal to charge vs. grow massively and then monetize the larger attention base. Zuck is also in a trench warfare competition with other social media players, it's far from a monopoly. He's historically been more inclined to do things that were worse for growth, but better for users when they had more of a dominant position - but he can't do that anymore. Somewhat relatedly Apple really missed an opportunity with iMessage. Had they timed it right they could have had a dominant cross platform chat. Instead they're going to be stuck with the modern equivalent of BBM while Zuck and Meta erase their only remaining stronghold in the US as iPhone users continue to move to WhatsApp.

ocdtrekkie 1y ago
I have not had someone ask me to use WhatsApp in nearly ten years, I deal with people on iMessage every day...
- Zak 1y ago
  I can predict the country you live in with reasonable reliability from this comment alone. This would not be true most places outside of the USA and maybe Canada. In a few countries/regions it might be a different third-party messaging app.
  - ocdtrekkie 1y ago
    Obviously, but the parent talks about Apple losing its US market to WhatsApp. Not sure that's remotely realistic, and them adding advertising only makes it even less realistic.
    - homefree 1y ago
      There was a recent interview (iirc maybe with Ben Thompson or at least he mentioned it) where Zuck said they were seeing their growth continue to accelerate in the US and it sounded like they’d be on track to overtake iMessage in a couple years if the rate continued. Growth like that happens slowly and then quickly. I’m using WhatsApp more now and I didn’t use it before, so empirically I’ve seen the expansion personally.
- als0 1y ago
  Meanwhile in Europe it’s the opposite.
  - AshamedCaptain 1y ago
    You can still survive without Facebook-crap perfectly. On the other hand it's hard to survive without either an Android or iPhone device.
    - MandieD 1y ago
      Though doing without WhatsApp is getting dicey with a preschooler in a couple of activities, and it will probably get even harder to keep my heels dug in once he's in school...
      - chgs 1y ago
        Whatsapp is essential unless you’re a hermit and don’t have kids. New drama club my youngest has joined only sends messages out on Facebook, which is even worse.
    - redeeman 1y ago
      its pretty easy to "survive". Why do you make it seem like life and death??
      - AshamedCaptain 1y ago
        Soon I will not be able to pay taxes without such a device. As everyone knows, without taxes, the only other remaining certainty is death.
        redeeman 1y ago
        i dont believe you. I bet there is a way, if you really press the authorities. They are so greedy for money that its certainly possible.
    - 1y ago
- jmknoll 1y ago
  Are you in North America? I’ve found this to be true in the US, but not in Europe or Asia.
- Balooga 1y ago
  Africa runs on WhatsApp. Went to South Africa on vacation last year. United lost our luggage on the first leg of the trip, which then became South African Airways responsibility to sort out because they handled our final leg. I communicated directly with the SAA baggage agent over WhatsApp. Then communicated over WhatsApp with the courier delivering our bags . Best customer service ever.
Zak 1y ago
Now Brian Acton has a huge pile of money to help fund Signal, so I don't think he has to feel too terrible about selling out. > Somewhat relatedly Apple really missed an opportunity with iMessage. Had they timed it right they could have had a dominant cross platform chat. Google also had the opportunity to do this. Around the same time iMessage launched, Google made Hangouts the default SMS app on Android with a similar capability to upgrade to Internet-based messaging when all parties to a conversation had it. Hangouts was cross-platform. Rumor has it carriers whined and Google caved. I'm kind of glad Google doesn't have a dominant messaging service, but it's only true due to their own lack of commitment.
- RestlessMind 1y ago
  I used Hangouts including the dogfood versions internally at Google. Problem was it was too complicated because it was designed by Googlers for Googlers. So it supported desktop and mobile, work email and personal email and phone numbers, text and video, and so on. In short, every single complexity conceivable was crammed into the app. Whereas Whatsapp was simple - only phone numbers to sign up, only text and images, only mobile phones. That simplicity meant my parents could onboard smoothly and operate it without having to navigate a maze of UX. I literally saw Whatsapp winning in real time vs Hangouts and other alternatives.
  - Zak 1y ago
    Thanks for the insider perspective. I used Hangouts for a while and had a bunch of contacts on it when it was Android's default SMS app. Many of them were not particularly technical, including one of my parents whom I don't recall telling to use it. If you were using an Android phone, you were probably already logged in to a Google account. iPhone users had to work a little harder for it (install the app and remember the password to the Gmail account they probably already had). I don't recall the UX on the mobile client having extra complexity over other messaging apps if I didn't go digging in the settings, but it's been a while.
    - simfree 1y ago
      I think the concept of a user having an existing Gmail account if they aren't in the Google ecosystem is a bit of hubris. There are many people I run across who bypassed the whole Gmail and Google Workspace ecosystems and have rolled along merrily with me.com and other email providers. It's not a given that users will have bothered to register for a Google account unless they grew up in the Bay Area after a certain time period. Wind back the clock to when Google tried to roll out Hangouts and the Gmail penetration rate was even lower among the non-Android users out there.
cherryteastain 1y ago
> 500M users paying $500M dollars There's no way they actually earned $500M/year. Even if Whatsapp had 100 employees making $200k/year on average, that's $20M on salaries. Add an another very generous $80M on infra/admin etc costs and they'd have been making $400M profit. With that much profit achieved within such a short period, in the QE funny money era they could have IPO'd at $50-100 billion easily.
- RestlessMind 1y ago
  Correct. I used Android phones back then and so did all my family members and most of my friends. No one I knew paid a dime for Whatsapp.
  - conradfr 1y ago
    I remember that the grace period was extended one or two times when it was time to pay, and then Facebook bought it.
    - prmoustache 1y ago
      I remember people being angered and threatening to leave if they had to pay that 1$/€ fee per year. And now here we are with ads.
      - chgs 1y ago
        The average person would rather view 100 adverts than pay 1 cent to get rid of them. We see it time and again. The average company would rather charge that 1 cent and still show adverts. We see that time and again.
        account42 1y ago
        Do we see that? What I see again and again is companies pretending to make that offer and then adding ads anyway. You can only fool people so often.
pesus 1y ago
Is there any data that shows people in the US are switching to WhatsApp? The only people I've ever seen use it are people with family in other countries. The statistics I've seen indicate that iPhone usage amongst American teenagers is high and still increasing(1), which almost certainly would lead to higher iMessage usage. (1) https://www.pipersandler.com/teens https://www.pipersandler.com/teens
- prmoustache 1y ago
  how do imessage and android users communicate with each others? Do android users really still use sms to reach apple users? Don't they have group chats everywhere? Here in europe every club/association/group has a whatsapp group chat. For instance here since the official app provided by the government has a super clunky UX most people get information from primary school through a whatsapp group chat managed by the parent's representative who has exclusive access to teaching group.
  - anton-c 1y ago
    Yes, I text my brother who has an iphone. Thats our primary communication when not speaking. As a counter to your question I've never used whatsapp and never saw a reason. What group chats? Are they groups of personal friends or mostly things you would 'follow' like a football club?
    - prmoustache 1y ago
      There is the parent's group for the school mentionnned above, my cycling club to discuss the upcoming rides/events and share pics (replace cycling with any kind of hobby you can think of), we have a family group chat with my parents and siblings, which are leaving in a different country as mine, an extended family in law group chat, comprised mostly of people living in another continent. At a former job we had a group chat that was meant to discuss anything not related to work, arrange out of office meetups. It sporadically served to share valuable information relative to work when there has been natural disaster so that people don't try to reach the office and stay at home. Much quicker than calling all employees. Additionally whenever there is a social event a group chat is created so that people can discuss the organization, and after the event share their sentiments, pictures, videos. It is never mandatory to participates in all those group chats but a lot of info go through them and they are usually useful. And the family group chats are great when you only get the chance to meet them more than a couple times a year.
Melatonic 1y ago
Highly doubt that - I feel like most people I communicate with on WhatsApp are for group chats vs individual messages might be imesssage or signal or many other platforms.
- godelski 1y ago
  You know signal and iMessage support group chats, right?

ocdtrekkie 1y ago

I have not had someone ask me to use WhatsApp in nearly ten years, I deal with people on iMessage every day...

Zak 1y ago
I can predict the country you live in with reasonable reliability from this comment alone. This would not be true most places outside of the USA and maybe Canada. In a few countries/regions it might be a different third-party messaging app.
- ocdtrekkie 1y ago
  Obviously, but the parent talks about Apple losing its US market to WhatsApp. Not sure that's remotely realistic, and them adding advertising only makes it even less realistic.
  - homefree 1y ago
    There was a recent interview (iirc maybe with Ben Thompson or at least he mentioned it) where Zuck said they were seeing their growth continue to accelerate in the US and it sounded like they’d be on track to overtake iMessage in a couple years if the rate continued. Growth like that happens slowly and then quickly. I’m using WhatsApp more now and I didn’t use it before, so empirically I’ve seen the expansion personally.
als0 1y ago
Meanwhile in Europe it’s the opposite.
- AshamedCaptain 1y ago
  You can still survive without Facebook-crap perfectly. On the other hand it's hard to survive without either an Android or iPhone device.
  - MandieD 1y ago
    Though doing without WhatsApp is getting dicey with a preschooler in a couple of activities, and it will probably get even harder to keep my heels dug in once he's in school...
    - chgs 1y ago
      Whatsapp is essential unless you’re a hermit and don’t have kids. New drama club my youngest has joined only sends messages out on Facebook, which is even worse.
  - redeeman 1y ago
    its pretty easy to "survive". Why do you make it seem like life and death??
    - AshamedCaptain 1y ago
      Soon I will not be able to pay taxes without such a device. As everyone knows, without taxes, the only other remaining certainty is death.
      - redeeman 1y ago
        i dont believe you. I bet there is a way, if you really press the authorities. They are so greedy for money that its certainly possible.
  - 1y ago
jmknoll 1y ago
Are you in North America? I’ve found this to be true in the US, but not in Europe or Asia.
Balooga 1y ago
Africa runs on WhatsApp. Went to South Africa on vacation last year. United lost our luggage on the first leg of the trip, which then became South African Airways responsibility to sort out because they handled our final leg. I communicated directly with the SAA baggage agent over WhatsApp. Then communicated over WhatsApp with the courier delivering our bags . Best customer service ever.

Zak 1y ago

Now Brian Acton has a huge pile of money to help fund Signal, so I don't think he has to feel too terrible about selling out. > Somewhat relatedly Apple really missed an opportunity with iMessage. Had they timed it right they could have had a dominant cross platform chat. Google also had the opportunity to do this. Around the same time iMessage launched, Google made Hangouts the default SMS app on Android with a similar capability to upgrade to Internet-based messaging when all parties to a conversation had it. Hangouts was cross-platform. Rumor has it carriers whined and Google caved. I'm kind of glad Google doesn't have a dominant messaging service, but it's only true due to their own lack of commitment.

RestlessMind 1y ago
I used Hangouts including the dogfood versions internally at Google. Problem was it was too complicated because it was designed by Googlers for Googlers. So it supported desktop and mobile, work email and personal email and phone numbers, text and video, and so on. In short, every single complexity conceivable was crammed into the app. Whereas Whatsapp was simple - only phone numbers to sign up, only text and images, only mobile phones. That simplicity meant my parents could onboard smoothly and operate it without having to navigate a maze of UX. I literally saw Whatsapp winning in real time vs Hangouts and other alternatives.
- Zak 1y ago
  Thanks for the insider perspective. I used Hangouts for a while and had a bunch of contacts on it when it was Android's default SMS app. Many of them were not particularly technical, including one of my parents whom I don't recall telling to use it. If you were using an Android phone, you were probably already logged in to a Google account. iPhone users had to work a little harder for it (install the app and remember the password to the Gmail account they probably already had). I don't recall the UX on the mobile client having extra complexity over other messaging apps if I didn't go digging in the settings, but it's been a while.
  - simfree 1y ago
    I think the concept of a user having an existing Gmail account if they aren't in the Google ecosystem is a bit of hubris. There are many people I run across who bypassed the whole Gmail and Google Workspace ecosystems and have rolled along merrily with me.com and other email providers. It's not a given that users will have bothered to register for a Google account unless they grew up in the Bay Area after a certain time period. Wind back the clock to when Google tried to roll out Hangouts and the Gmail penetration rate was even lower among the non-Android users out there.

cherryteastain 1y ago

> 500M users paying $500M dollars There's no way they actually earned $500M/year. Even if Whatsapp had 100 employees making $200k/year on average, that's $20M on salaries. Add an another very generous $80M on infra/admin etc costs and they'd have been making $400M profit. With that much profit achieved within such a short period, in the QE funny money era they could have IPO'd at $50-100 billion easily.

RestlessMind 1y ago
Correct. I used Android phones back then and so did all my family members and most of my friends. No one I knew paid a dime for Whatsapp.
- conradfr 1y ago
  I remember that the grace period was extended one or two times when it was time to pay, and then Facebook bought it.
  - prmoustache 1y ago
    I remember people being angered and threatening to leave if they had to pay that 1$/€ fee per year. And now here we are with ads.
    - chgs 1y ago
      The average person would rather view 100 adverts than pay 1 cent to get rid of them. We see it time and again. The average company would rather charge that 1 cent and still show adverts. We see that time and again.
      - account42 1y ago
        Do we see that? What I see again and again is companies pretending to make that offer and then adding ads anyway. You can only fool people so often.

pesus 1y ago

Is there any data that shows people in the US are switching to WhatsApp? The only people I've ever seen use it are people with family in other countries. The statistics I've seen indicate that iPhone usage amongst American teenagers is high and still increasing(1), which almost certainly would lead to higher iMessage usage. (1) https://www.pipersandler.com/teens https://www.pipersandler.com/teens

prmoustache 1y ago
how do imessage and android users communicate with each others? Do android users really still use sms to reach apple users? Don't they have group chats everywhere? Here in europe every club/association/group has a whatsapp group chat. For instance here since the official app provided by the government has a super clunky UX most people get information from primary school through a whatsapp group chat managed by the parent's representative who has exclusive access to teaching group.
- anton-c 1y ago
  Yes, I text my brother who has an iphone. Thats our primary communication when not speaking. As a counter to your question I've never used whatsapp and never saw a reason. What group chats? Are they groups of personal friends or mostly things you would 'follow' like a football club?
  - prmoustache 1y ago
    There is the parent's group for the school mentionnned above, my cycling club to discuss the upcoming rides/events and share pics (replace cycling with any kind of hobby you can think of), we have a family group chat with my parents and siblings, which are leaving in a different country as mine, an extended family in law group chat, comprised mostly of people living in another continent. At a former job we had a group chat that was meant to discuss anything not related to work, arrange out of office meetups. It sporadically served to share valuable information relative to work when there has been natural disaster so that people don't try to reach the office and stay at home. Much quicker than calling all employees. Additionally whenever there is a social event a group chat is created so that people can discuss the organization, and after the event share their sentiments, pictures, videos. It is never mandatory to participates in all those group chats but a lot of info go through them and they are usually useful. And the family group chats are great when you only get the chance to meet them more than a couple times a year.

Melatonic 1y ago

Highly doubt that - I feel like most people I communicate with on WhatsApp are for group chats vs individual messages might be imesssage or signal or many other platforms.

godelski 1y ago
You know signal and iMessage support group chats, right?