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I rarely hear people talk about the fact that demand for new software will increase exponentially as cost to produce software crash. The ratios of devs_per_1k

I rarely hear people talk about the fact that demand for new software will increase exponentially as cost to produce software crash. The ratios of devs_per_1k_lines_of_code_in_2022:devs_per_1k_lines_of_code_in_2028 and increase_in_demand:decrease_in_cost are unknown. But what if 1 dev could produce 300% more code, reducing eng cost (assuming same cost per hour per dev) to 1/3 of historical norms. Would that result in an increase of 20% in demand? Probably not, more like 1000%. If that's the case, there is a large net increase in demand for experienced devs who know how to use AI for coding. Demand will go up massively, I have zero doubt of that, but will AI get so much better that unskilled MBAs are making large complex apps? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

hyperhello 1y ago
Why is more code any kind of value to anyone?
mistrial9 1y ago
and, the money to pay those new devs will just pour out like a waterfall? Some players in the ecosystem exist solely to stop payments as a cost center. Paying for work is a liability, capital expenditure and long term deals for automation are a tax writeoff. Let's be even more blunt -- slavery for labor is very profitable and makes a great economy on a large scale; taxes are healthy, production goes up, some people get very rich. Slavery for labor is a desirable economic stable point. What does slavery for labor look like in high-skill urban setting? Rent, login credentials that are monitored, computer use is monitored, electricity is metered centrally, access to new model updates is monitored, required security updates are controlled via certificates and individual profiles, communication is by phone which is individually monitored for access patterns and location.. all very sci-fi eh?
- hooverd 1y ago
  Hey, remember to turn off the Lathe of Heaven before manifesting that.
bluefirebrand 1y ago
Demand does not always boom this way AI companies are positioning themselves as "the everything machine" The vast majority of software written today is "capture data -> transform data (optional) -> display data nicely formatted and easily accessible" If an AI can wire into your database to retrieve the data in the format you want, then a bunch of the job is done If the AI can also be made to present a form to users to capture the data in the first place, then almost all of the job is done These are huge IFs. I remain skeptical that we'll reach this level soon. But if we do, the software industry is gonna tank The AI industry will grow. Maybe.
- AstroBen 1y ago
  These basic CRUD apps are solved with no-code tools today aren't they? Why do we need AI for that 'the everything machine' is pure fantasy and hype
  - bluefirebrand 1y ago
    No they aren't solved by No-Code tools. No-Code tools have become "Don't write code, just write endless configuration. And then when it doesn't do what you want, write code anyways" Except now your code starting point is an absolute mess under the hood so it's a complete crapshoot to build out anything meaningful
    - hooverd 1y ago
      So true. No-code tools splatter your code, your business logic, across a thousand windows and forms.
- punkbit 1y ago
  That’s a fair hypothesis. Software as we know it, will disappear.
hooverd 1y ago
The entire economy will be one-man SaaS products. /s

hyperhello 1y ago

Why is more code any kind of value to anyone?

mistrial9 1y ago

and, the money to pay those new devs will just pour out like a waterfall? Some players in the ecosystem exist solely to stop payments as a cost center. Paying for work is a liability, capital expenditure and long term deals for automation are a tax writeoff. Let's be even more blunt -- slavery for labor is very profitable and makes a great economy on a large scale; taxes are healthy, production goes up, some people get very rich. Slavery for labor is a desirable economic stable point. What does slavery for labor look like in high-skill urban setting? Rent, login credentials that are monitored, computer use is monitored, electricity is metered centrally, access to new model updates is monitored, required security updates are controlled via certificates and individual profiles, communication is by phone which is individually monitored for access patterns and location.. all very sci-fi eh?

hooverd 1y ago
Hey, remember to turn off the Lathe of Heaven before manifesting that.

bluefirebrand 1y ago

Demand does not always boom this way AI companies are positioning themselves as "the everything machine" The vast majority of software written today is "capture data -> transform data (optional) -> display data nicely formatted and easily accessible" If an AI can wire into your database to retrieve the data in the format you want, then a bunch of the job is done If the AI can also be made to present a form to users to capture the data in the first place, then almost all of the job is done These are huge IFs. I remain skeptical that we'll reach this level soon. But if we do, the software industry is gonna tank The AI industry will grow. Maybe.

AstroBen 1y ago
These basic CRUD apps are solved with no-code tools today aren't they? Why do we need AI for that 'the everything machine' is pure fantasy and hype
- bluefirebrand 1y ago
  No they aren't solved by No-Code tools. No-Code tools have become "Don't write code, just write endless configuration. And then when it doesn't do what you want, write code anyways" Except now your code starting point is an absolute mess under the hood so it's a complete crapshoot to build out anything meaningful
  - hooverd 1y ago
    So true. No-code tools splatter your code, your business logic, across a thousand windows and forms.
punkbit 1y ago
That’s a fair hypothesis. Software as we know it, will disappear.

hooverd 1y ago

The entire economy will be one-man SaaS products. /s