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This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news

This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find out.

linearithmic 1y ago
I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.
- NunoSempere 1y ago
  I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-destroyed-more-than-40-russian-bomber-planes-deep-inside-territory https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian-severomorsk-1748782449.html https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.
  - linearithmic 1y ago
    Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.
    - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
      The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know. It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.
      - NunoSempere 1y ago
        > not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild > months to years before they're operation again Good point!

linearithmic 1y ago

I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.

NunoSempere 1y ago
I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-destroyed-more-than-40-russian-bomber-planes-deep-inside-territory https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian-severomorsk-1748782449.html https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.
- linearithmic 1y ago
  Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.
  - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
    The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know. It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.
    - NunoSempere 1y ago
      > not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild > months to years before they're operation again Good point!