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Is this guy actually a fan of disposable rockets? Because that sounds like what he’s hinting. People still think that? That doesn’t mean there’s no issues with
by api 1y ago
Is this guy actually a fan of disposable rockets? Because that sounds like what he’s hinting. People still think that?
That doesn’t mean there’s no issues with the Starship design. I am still scratching my head a little about stainless steel, which is heavy, and given that the supposed advantage of not needing heat tiles seems to have been proven a mirage so far.
I am also skeptical that they’ll make second stage reusability work. First stage, sure. They are almost there. Just like F9 the math works fine, and reusing that is a big win. Second stage reuse is so much harder.
What I would do is scrap it in favor of a whole different way of looking at Starship.
The upper stage is a spaceship. It belongs in space. It’s never coming home.
That would let you drop so much complexity, structural mass, heat tiles, etc.
It could probably land and take off from the Moon or Mars, maybe with a much smaller booster for the latter, since those bodies have a lot less gravity. Or maybe it lands on the Moon or Mars and never leaves, becoming habitat and being stripped for materials. I could see that for the first dozen or two.
A reusable fuel tanker version that is literally nothing but a cone shaped fuel can with a rocket on it is possibly doable, so maybe there’s that. At least until we can make methane and liquid oxygen on the Moon.
The most logical way forward to get to multi planetary civilization is to build a moon base. Then use that as a factory and staging ground to build and launch huge spacecraft for Mars. In 1/6 gravity and no atmosphere you could manufacture and launch things way larger than anything that could be sent up from Earth without nuclear rockets.
You could also launch nuclear rockets from the Moon, come to think of it, since the Moon has no biosphere and its surface is already bathed in radiation. Even something like Orion (a.k.a. the devil’s pogo stick) could go up from there, though from the far side to avoid EMPing satellites in the Earth-Moon system.
With a Moon first plan the upper stage could become a Moon ship made to fly to the Moon, land, and be habitat or materials. Mars stuff gets built on the Moon where you get to play with big boy toys like LANTR or Orion, which lets you launch the kinds of spacecraft you’d actually want to take to Mars.
Lots of ways to get around full second stage reusability without throwing away the second stage if your goal is a real human presence in space.
- modeless 1y agoThe advantage of steel is the tiles don't have to be as thick and heavy. I don't think they ever claimed it doesn't need a heat shield. HLS is the Starship that never re-enters you're asking for. The problem is it needs refueling in orbit after launch to get anywhere, with 10+ tanker launches required. For that to be practical you need reusable tankers. So you still need a reusable heat shield to get beyond Earth orbit even if your crew vehicle isn't coming back. Also Starlink is the funding source for Starship, and Starlink will benefit a lot from second stage reusability for Earth launches as well.
- api 1y agoFor no heat tiles I am thinking of the original idea of transpiration cooling, which I suppose ended up too complex or itself too heavy. I didn’t know it was 10+ tanker launches. Is it because only a small amount of the tanker’s fuel payload is actually delivered? That makes the whole thing look less useful for going anywhere past orbit. Still useful, but less of a step change from what we have now. Maybe it’d be better to spend the whole budget on inertial confined fusion research instead. Get that working and you can really go somewhere.
- modeless 1y agoThey are still testing transpiration cooling for potential use in areas of super high heating but I think they decided a long time ago that the mass penalty of transpiration cooling was much higher than that of ceramic tiles. Nobody knows the true number of tanker launches yet but it's going to be a lot. The ship holds ~1500 tons of propellant and payload capacity to LEO is ~150 tons, so 10 is probably a decent first guess. Less if it doesn't need to be full, more if there are a lot of losses in the process. But 10 isn't so bad if everything is reusable. It's a different way of thinking about launches. What we really need is a propellant factory somewhere other than Earth. That sounds easier than fusion rockets.