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Well, it's about 1/4 of the way that's needed to if not nullify Russia's nuclear deterrence, then to significantly weaken it and make it less than certain. Make

Well, it's about 1/4 of the way that's needed to if not nullify Russia's nuclear deterrence, then to significantly weaken it and make it less than certain. Make Russia 'one of' nuclear powers. Take out the remaining bombers, attack subs when they exit or return to bases harassing them until they can no longer reliably deploy (it's not such a hard job because until ~2014, Russian subs could not maintain continuous deployment of at least 1 because of logistical issues and regular breakdowns, even having many of them), and make Russians understand that ballistic missile silos are vulnerable to pre-planted SAMs such as Starstreak HVM that could be launched in the first seconds of flight. Just get directly into the game: make Putin understand that his nuclear capability is a lot less certain, make any kind of nuclear planning except purely retaliatory impossible (driving SSPK to very low numbers => can't hope to meaningully target anything that can shoot back), and you get a totally different strategic balance.

paganel 1y ago
Lots of NATO air-bases here in Europe (and I guess also in North-America) would get nuclearly obliterated were NATO start to be seen doing that, which would be quite unfortunate as my parents live about 30 kilometers as the crow flies from one of the closest NATO air-bass to Southern Ukraine / Southern Russia, and I myself am writing this comment from one of the closest NATO capitals to this war in Ukraine (I'm from Bucharest). But we all have to go some day, one way or another, so a nuclear holocaust is a good an option as any, isn't it?
- anovikov 1y ago
  Thing is, there's very little NATO can do to prevent Ukrainians from doing it. That's part of the game: pressure NATO into increasing military support by showing them that otherwise, they are forced to do things that make NATO terribly uncomfortable. It's not like NATO can just withdraw from Ukrainian support so they will now feel compelled to comply.
  - paganel 1y ago
    It’s not Ukraine controlling Musk’s satelite network, that’s for sure. Video of the attacks got out pretty fast, from the drones themselves, and Starlink might have been involved in that happening (say, a Starlink-enabled UA hidden cell close to where the trucks were placed). Either way, this is a major escalation from NATO, I guess we’re on for at least another 3 years of hot war.
    - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
      This is a major escalation from NATO? Excuse me? This was not a NATO operation. It probably wasn't NATO hardware - not the drones, not even the trucks. It absolutely wasn't NATO personnel.
      - paganel 1y ago
        [flagged]
        tim333 1y ago
        The only country pushing hot war your way is Russia and how is it going to get there with most of its tanks destroyed and its air force on the way out? I guess they could send cruise missiles into children's hospitals and stuff in the usual Russian way but that would be a very bad idea for them really as they are struggling against Ukraine attacking NATO territory militarily would be another level. Of course they'll hit us with propaganda and politician buying. But such is life.
        mopsi 1y ago
        > it was a NATO operation when it came to reconnaissance and I also highly suspect when it came to communications Because you need to be an advanced NATO military to look up parking stands at Russian airbases on Google Maps and buy a bunch of Russian SIM card with a data plan?
        3eb7988a1663 1y ago

paganel 1y ago

Lots of NATO air-bases here in Europe (and I guess also in North-America) would get nuclearly obliterated were NATO start to be seen doing that, which would be quite unfortunate as my parents live about 30 kilometers as the crow flies from one of the closest NATO air-bass to Southern Ukraine / Southern Russia, and I myself am writing this comment from one of the closest NATO capitals to this war in Ukraine (I'm from Bucharest). But we all have to go some day, one way or another, so a nuclear holocaust is a good an option as any, isn't it?

anovikov 1y ago
Thing is, there's very little NATO can do to prevent Ukrainians from doing it. That's part of the game: pressure NATO into increasing military support by showing them that otherwise, they are forced to do things that make NATO terribly uncomfortable. It's not like NATO can just withdraw from Ukrainian support so they will now feel compelled to comply.
- paganel 1y ago
  It’s not Ukraine controlling Musk’s satelite network, that’s for sure. Video of the attacks got out pretty fast, from the drones themselves, and Starlink might have been involved in that happening (say, a Starlink-enabled UA hidden cell close to where the trucks were placed). Either way, this is a major escalation from NATO, I guess we’re on for at least another 3 years of hot war.
  - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
    This is a major escalation from NATO? Excuse me? This was not a NATO operation. It probably wasn't NATO hardware - not the drones, not even the trucks. It absolutely wasn't NATO personnel.
    - paganel 1y ago
      [flagged]
      - tim333 1y ago
        The only country pushing hot war your way is Russia and how is it going to get there with most of its tanks destroyed and its air force on the way out? I guess they could send cruise missiles into children's hospitals and stuff in the usual Russian way but that would be a very bad idea for them really as they are struggling against Ukraine attacking NATO territory militarily would be another level. Of course they'll hit us with propaganda and politician buying. But such is life.
      - mopsi 1y ago
        > it was a NATO operation when it came to reconnaissance and I also highly suspect when it came to communications Because you need to be an advanced NATO military to look up parking stands at Russian airbases on Google Maps and buy a bunch of Russian SIM card with a data plan?
        3eb7988a1663 1y ago