I've been involved in prediction markets for a while, and this story highlights why I'm now more optimistic about using AI than crowdsourcing humans. So much,

I've been involved in prediction markets for a while, and this story highlights why I'm now more optimistic about using AI than crowdsourcing humans. So much, possibly the vast majority, of intellectual energy that goes into prediction markets is not about forecasting. Like the example Eric gives of “This Market Will Resolve No At The End Of 2025”, it's about arbitrage, it's about edge cases, it's about interest rates, it's about resolution disputes, it's about sniping the dumb money faster than others. Prediction markets are a brilliant way to incentivize accuracy and good research. But you don't see much of that on Polymarket.