4 ms·

The GOP controls the house and senate. Congress controls tariffs. If they followed the law congress could make the thing happen. But I don't think think ind

by duxup 1y ago

The GOP controls the house and senate. Congress controls tariffs. If they followed the law congress could make the thing happen. But I don't think think independent thinking is allowed in the GOP, and it might force their hand if they had to actually put it to a vote ...

eru 1y ago
Wouldn't they still have to deal with filibusters?
- tokioyoyo 1y ago
  Codifying tariffs would also mean they probably can't change it every day to different numbers, no?
  - boroboro4 1y ago
    Potentially they can codify broader authority for executive to regulate tariffs…
    - alabastervlog 1y ago
      Too much of that should, but probably won't, set off every alarm and siren with the conservative justices, for stepping way over the line, after their reasoning on Chevron.
  - Spooky23 1y ago
    They can put a procedure in place to allow for some changes, just not under the ridiculous “state of emergency”.
- duxup 1y ago
  The bigger problem would be their own party members.
  - eru 1y ago
    In what sense?
    - duxup 1y ago
      The GOP in congress has struggled, even last election cycle to gather enough votes to take action. They ran through several rounds where they couldn't even pick a house majority leader among their own party. The tariffs would be very difficult considering each of their local concerns.
      - lesuorac 1y ago
        Additionally, in the first Trump presidency congress temporarily removed the debt limit. I don't think there are even votes to do that now so compromising on how to fund the government is going to take a lot of effort (that can't be spent on tariff rates).
        eru 1y ago
        I wish they would replace the debt limit with something more sensibly designed like the German (or Swiss) debt brake ('Schuldenbremse'). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendme... The American debt limit regularly shuts down the government, but debt still keeps piling up. The German debt brake doesn't seem to shut down the government, but actually lead to a substantial drop in the debt-to-gdp ratio.
mattnewton 1y ago
isn’t it easier to just say that the shadowy courts are the reason for all the problems and not actually ram the tariffs through? This seems like an off ramp is being extended. Who actually wants the tariffs?
- duxup 1y ago
  It's not clear to me if there's a strategy as detailed as that. I honestly think Trump thinks like he tweets and it's just that shallow, and arbitrary.
- asdff 1y ago
  >Who actually wants the tariffs? Probably the shorts who get a text from Kushner or someone else in the inner circle ahead of Trumps next public rant. Take profit then go long for when Trump gets embarrassed at the days low and flips his position again.
- labster 1y ago
  [flagged]
- llm_nerd 1y ago
  >Who actually wants the tariffs? Trump and Peter Navarro (along with his advisor "Ron Vara") really think tariffs are a windfall of government funding. They *really* want them. Sneak in a massive regressive tax hike and just use bombast and cult-like rhetoric to pretend that if any of it hits consumers -- and 100% of it will -- it's really just evil Walmarts and other nefarious vendors who caused that. The US federal balance sheet is a spectacular disaster, and Trump's Big Massive Deficit Bill is going to make it much worse. Americans need to settle in for the reality that higher taxes are going to be a near term reality.
timewizard 1y ago
I don't see any political party cherishing "independent thinking."
seanmcdirmid 1y ago
They have a narrow so small that passing tariffs would still be politically difficult even though they control both chambers, and that is not even considering a filibuster. I hope this judgement stands, however, trade actually works out really well for the US economy and its job market. Yes, we don't often manufacture the thing, but we have huge roles in designing those things and packing them with software. Even China is trying to get in on that while they offload manufacturing to robots and countries that are earlier on in their development.
- duxup 1y ago
  It would be difficult, but arguably everything has been difficult for the congressional GOP as even when they ran the house during the last cycle they could barely operate. They struggled to pick leaders among their own party members numerous times.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
    It has been hard for the judicial system as well, with Trump ignoring injunctions and orders as if they were just advisory. I wonder if he will try that here as well? "Oh, the court said no tariffs, but I'm not even going to bother with an appeal to the Supreme Court and just use an executive order to invalidate...", here is hoping he doesn't do that.
    - msie 1y ago
      It would be nice if some US marshals put Trump in jail for ignoring the court but we know nothing will come of it.
      - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > some US marshals put Trump in jail for ignoring the court In chess you never capture the king. Similarly, the way to fight this is have arrested the lower rung players e.g. the tax collectors. (And ICE agents conducting illegal arrests.)
sidvit 1y ago
The republicans leadership in the house has put mechanisms in place to prevent reps from challenging the tarrif laws. I don’t think it’d be a cake walk for them to do it through the legislative branch
- rswail 1y ago
  [flagged]
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
HarHarVeryFunny 1y ago
Trump is claiming that imbalanced trade is a national emergency, allowing him to address it via executive order. There has to be limits to this though, otherwise in (self-declared) wartime you have a dictator (cf Julius Caesar DICT PERP - all the power, all the time).
insane_dreamer 1y ago
Most GOP senators don't want the tariffs. It's just they're too scared of retaliation hurting their re-election chances (exhibit A: Cheney) if they defy Trump. It's easier to not challenge an Executive Order, which also puts the blame on Trump if people are unhappy, which they are, than it is to vote on the Tariffs at which point the Senate/House is responsible for the fiasco.

by duxup 1y ago

eru 1y ago

Wouldn't they still have to deal with filibusters?

tokioyoyo 1y ago
Codifying tariffs would also mean they probably can't change it every day to different numbers, no?
- boroboro4 1y ago
  Potentially they can codify broader authority for executive to regulate tariffs…
  - alabastervlog 1y ago
    Too much of that should, but probably won't, set off every alarm and siren with the conservative justices, for stepping way over the line, after their reasoning on Chevron.
- Spooky23 1y ago
  They can put a procedure in place to allow for some changes, just not under the ridiculous “state of emergency”.
duxup 1y ago
The bigger problem would be their own party members.
- eru 1y ago
  In what sense?
  - duxup 1y ago
    The GOP in congress has struggled, even last election cycle to gather enough votes to take action. They ran through several rounds where they couldn't even pick a house majority leader among their own party. The tariffs would be very difficult considering each of their local concerns.
    - lesuorac 1y ago
      Additionally, in the first Trump presidency congress temporarily removed the debt limit. I don't think there are even votes to do that now so compromising on how to fund the government is going to take a lot of effort (that can't be spent on tariff rates).
      - eru 1y ago
        I wish they would replace the debt limit with something more sensibly designed like the German (or Swiss) debt brake ('Schuldenbremse'). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendme... The American debt limit regularly shuts down the government, but debt still keeps piling up. The German debt brake doesn't seem to shut down the government, but actually lead to a substantial drop in the debt-to-gdp ratio.

mattnewton 1y ago

isn’t it easier to just say that the shadowy courts are the reason for all the problems and not actually ram the tariffs through? This seems like an off ramp is being extended. Who actually wants the tariffs?

duxup 1y ago
It's not clear to me if there's a strategy as detailed as that. I honestly think Trump thinks like he tweets and it's just that shallow, and arbitrary.
asdff 1y ago
>Who actually wants the tariffs? Probably the shorts who get a text from Kushner or someone else in the inner circle ahead of Trumps next public rant. Take profit then go long for when Trump gets embarrassed at the days low and flips his position again.
labster 1y ago
[flagged]
llm_nerd 1y ago
>Who actually wants the tariffs? Trump and Peter Navarro (along with his advisor "Ron Vara") really think tariffs are a windfall of government funding. They *really* want them. Sneak in a massive regressive tax hike and just use bombast and cult-like rhetoric to pretend that if any of it hits consumers -- and 100% of it will -- it's really just evil Walmarts and other nefarious vendors who caused that. The US federal balance sheet is a spectacular disaster, and Trump's Big Massive Deficit Bill is going to make it much worse. Americans need to settle in for the reality that higher taxes are going to be a near term reality.

timewizard 1y ago

I don't see any political party cherishing "independent thinking."

seanmcdirmid 1y ago

They have a narrow so small that passing tariffs would still be politically difficult even though they control both chambers, and that is not even considering a filibuster. I hope this judgement stands, however, trade actually works out really well for the US economy and its job market. Yes, we don't often manufacture the thing, but we have huge roles in designing those things and packing them with software. Even China is trying to get in on that while they offload manufacturing to robots and countries that are earlier on in their development.

duxup 1y ago
It would be difficult, but arguably everything has been difficult for the congressional GOP as even when they ran the house during the last cycle they could barely operate. They struggled to pick leaders among their own party members numerous times.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- seanmcdirmid 1y ago
  It has been hard for the judicial system as well, with Trump ignoring injunctions and orders as if they were just advisory. I wonder if he will try that here as well? "Oh, the court said no tariffs, but I'm not even going to bother with an appeal to the Supreme Court and just use an executive order to invalidate...", here is hoping he doesn't do that.
  - msie 1y ago
    It would be nice if some US marshals put Trump in jail for ignoring the court but we know nothing will come of it.
    - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
      > some US marshals put Trump in jail for ignoring the court In chess you never capture the king. Similarly, the way to fight this is have arrested the lower rung players e.g. the tax collectors. (And ICE agents conducting illegal arrests.)

sidvit 1y ago

The republicans leadership in the house has put mechanisms in place to prevent reps from challenging the tarrif laws. I don’t think it’d be a cake walk for them to do it through the legislative branch

rswail 1y ago
[flagged]

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

HarHarVeryFunny 1y ago

Trump is claiming that imbalanced trade is a national emergency, allowing him to address it via executive order. There has to be limits to this though, otherwise in (self-declared) wartime you have a dictator (cf Julius Caesar DICT PERP - all the power, all the time).

insane_dreamer 1y ago

Most GOP senators don't want the tariffs. It's just they're too scared of retaliation hurting their re-election chances (exhibit A: Cheney) if they defy Trump. It's easier to not challenge an Executive Order, which also puts the blame on Trump if people are unhappy, which they are, than it is to vote on the Tariffs at which point the Senate/House is responsible for the fiasco.