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I'm rooting for SpaceX because no one else in the world is even attempting to do what they're doing. Every single time SpaceX has set a goal, there were detrac
by GMoromisato 1y ago
I'm rooting for SpaceX because no one else in the world is even attempting to do what they're doing.
Every single time SpaceX has set a goal, there were detractors who claimed they would never accomplish it. And along the way, there were plenty of failures that almost proved the detractors right. But every time--so far at least--SpaceX persevered and eventually succeeded.
When SpaceX decided to re-use their boosters, most people thought they were idiots. They would never be able to do it, and even if they did, it would never make financial sense. Even today, SpaceX is the only company to fly with "flight-proven" boosters, but no one is skeptical anymore. Almost every new launch vehicle, including several Chinese ones, are designed to be re-usable.
When SpaceX decided to build the Falcon Heavy, with 27 first-stage engines, many people thought it would fail. "Remember the N1," they said, which was doomed from the start because they could never get all its engines to work together. But the Falcon Heavy worked and gave us those indelible views of twin boosters landings.
When SpaceX decided to build Starlink, many people thought it was crazy. 5,000 satellites!? Are you crazy? How are you going to manufacture, much less launch that many satellites? Today they have 7,500 working satellites and they are literally launching more twice a week. Starlink has changed the communications satellite industry (there are at least 3 serious competitors).
I remember the first Starship launch, when 5 of its 33 engines failed almost immediately. Skeptics thought the Raptor engine was dead on arrival. Too complicated compared to the proven Merlins and way too unreliable to power Starship. They will never get it to work. And yet, in later flights, all 33 engines worked perfectly all the way to ascent. No one worries about the booster anymore.
When I first heard they were going to catch a returning booster at the launch tower I thought they were mad. I thought that was a long-term plan that might happen sometime in 2030, after they refined the system. But no, they went ahead and caught it on Flight 5. Since then they have caught two other boosters and have reflown one in Flight 9.
People who don't follow the space industry don't yet realize how revolutionary Starship it. It is not just the largest rocket in history; its crazy goal is to be able to launch, land, and then launch again with minimal refurbishment and minimal cost.
If all they wanted to do is launch something to orbit and discard the rocket, SpaceX could have done it on their first flight with a much less ambitious design. The reason it's taking so long (and will continue to take so long) is because their ultimate goal is something no one has come close to achieving: a rocket that can be reused like an airliner.
Musk once quipped that SpaceX is good at turning 'impossible' into 'late'. It's true that they have missed almost every single deadline they have ever set. But it's also true that the things SpaceX has done were once deemed to be impossible.
And that's why I'm rooting for them, no matter how many ships they blow up.
- uejfiweun 1y agoPeople rooting against SpaceX are just rooting against Musk TBH. That's why all these launches have so much negativity these days. And these people are very online. But viewed through a neutral lens, it's a clear positive for humanity that these rockets are being developed. I wouldn't let the online discourse put a bad taste in your mouth.
- hi_hi 1y agoIt's a clear positive for SpaceX. How much humanity stands to gain has yet to be seen.
- GMoromisato 1y agoAs with anything else, it depends on your point of view. Does Hubble benefit humanity or should we have spent the money helping the homeless instead? There is no correct answer; only preferences. I happen to like SpaceX’s goals.
- hi_hi 1y agoAh, yes, of course. I wasn't trying to make quite the esoteric point. More specifically that currently, if starship succeeds, it will be good business for SpaceX and enable them to launch many more satellites around earth at a cheaper cost but greater scale. I don't think this will be much of a positive for humans in general (beyond the current state). Now if the lofty goals of enabling Mars and Moon habitation come to fruition, I would take a different view. For now I consider achieving that goal to be science fiction, but hopefully that changes in my lifetime.
- GMoromisato 1y agoAgreed! That makes sense.
- GMoromisato 1y agoAgreed! And thank you for putting it in perspective.