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There's only one issue I can think of with your idea that someone who is 75 now leads a life as you're describing. The generation they belong to are predicted

There's only one issue I can think of with your idea that someone who is 75 now leads a life as you're describing. The generation they belong to are predicted to live to what 80-85 years? Whilst we (assuming you're in your 40's now) are predicted to get to what 90-95 on average? Average lifespans are increasing, and on top of that the mobility of someone who's 75 now, won't be the same of someone who's 75 in another 35+ years.

amag 1y ago
> are predicted to get to what 90-95 on average? That may be true, but will we (who are in our 40's now) have the same quality of life at 90-95 as a now 75-year old will have at 80-85?
duttish 1y ago
Does anyone know if there's any kind of metrics for healthspans? Meaning the "good" part of life before it's just doctors, medicine and retirement homes. My impression so far is that we've done a lot of work at the lifespan, less at the healthspan. What's the point of living until 90 if the last 15 years isn't that fun at all.
- YokoZar 1y ago
  Healthspan in Denmark, who just raised the retirement age, went up from 67.6 to 71.0 from 2000-2019. (+3.4 years) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/healthy-life-expectancy-at-birth?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~DNK https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/healthy-life-expectancy-a... Contrast this with Denmark's lifespan growth over the same period, of 76.8 to 81.4 (+4.6 years) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?time=2000..2019&country=~DNK https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?time=2000... So from the data, prior to covid-19 Danes had gained about 3 and a half years of healthy life, and an additional year of unhealthy life. It makes sense that Healthspan and lifespan are well-correlated, as most of the ways we have of extending lifespan do so in a way that makes you clearly healthier (such as preventing chronic diseases). That said, it is true there is a bit of an increasing gap. This isn't just in Denmark, it's global - lifespan rose by 6.4 years from 2000-2019 while healthspan only increased 5.3 years. https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-globa...
- nullhole 1y ago
  > Does anyone know if there's any kind of metrics for healthspans? Meaning the "good" part of life before it's just doctors, medicine and retirement homes. The metric I've come across is Quality Adjusted Life Years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year
- the_black_hand 1y ago
  But generally, work has gotten way less physically demanding so it balances out. Tech allows you to work in via Zoom in the comfort of your home. I hope to be coding literally till the day I die.
arexxbifs 1y ago
With an aging population and increasingly long work lives, individual stressors will increase and societal capacity for healthcare (and overall prosperity) will dwindle. Baby boomers, having lived through some of the most incredible growth in human history, will perhaps turn out to be an anomalous blip in the life expectancy stats. Also, people age differently. There's a difference between living and being alive. Not that it's an easy problem to solve, what with the demographics being what they are. I think we'll have to get used to the thought - and reality - of sinking living standards in the west.
- HenryBemis 1y ago
  You get downvoted a lot, but I challenge anyone to name a country that hasn't slashed _hard_ social benefits, pensions, % of GDP for healthcare, and similar.. I get it that some countries have had a plethora of scammers (prescribing pregnancy meds to men so docs can hit quotas and get bonuses/bribes from pharmaceutical companies, people trying to fake blindness to get an early retirement, etc. But overall reduction of cost with reduction of salaries will ultimately lead to worse healthcare. A friend was in Germany skiing this past winter. The 10k population town he was staying didn't have a paediatrician and they had to drive 2h to get care for their kid. In Germany, in 2025. I wonder how this very town will be in 2030 or 2050 with that trend..
  - arexxbifs 1y ago
    It's a tough reality to face. Problems are piling up for the west that aren't easily solved, and not just with social benefits. Something as mundane as aging sewage systems is starting to become a real problem in many countries.
    - nradov 1y ago
      Demographic collapse is hardly unique to "the west". Have a look at the population age histogram in China, South Korea, and Japan.
      - 1y ago
jongjong 1y ago
Poorer individuals, who need retirement most, don't tend to live as long. Millennials and Gen Z are already victims of old, no-longer-applicable narratives (e.g. save cash, avoid debt, go to college...) and these ones about life expectancy will likely be added to the pile and used to disenfranchise us more while having no connection to reality.
- bluGill 1y ago
  Those old narritives were consiedered out dated for ever generation - but those who do it anyway tend to do well.
  - arexxbifs 1y ago
    Sure, but one of the reasons that people have fewer children is a bigger risk of downward mobility. The cost of raising a child to an expected middle class living standard has increased substantially.
    - bluGill 1y ago
      many of those costs are optional. You don't have to put your kids in dance, karate, soccor, ... However many do, and all those things add up in costs. Speaking as a parent, there are plenty of options, some are really expesnive, and some cheap. You can choose which to pay for. note that the things I listed above are fun, but won't get yoru children into a great college and thus won't ensure a better life for them and yoru grandkids. Choose wisely where to spend your money.
  - jongjong 1y ago
    Saving cash was actually a fine strategy when cash was backed by gold or even (to a lesser degree) some time later when the national debt wasn't over $30 trillion - This massive public debt is forcing the government to print money at a rapid rate to cover interest payments and this is creating enormous inflationary pressures. Society has become totally distorted around the goal of keeping this scheme going, the distortion has permeated every facet of human existence. Avoiding debt was a good idea when interest rates were high. In the modern age where money is not constrained by scarcity, interest rates have been low. Banks have been loaning out the people's money at near 0% interest rates; often towards the goal of helping corporations to monopolize industries; if it was YOUR money, would you loan it out at near 0% interest rate? It doesn't even cover inflation, let alone the risk of default... Yet the government has been doing exactly that with the people's money; YOUR money. The situation has never been so generous towards borrowers and so bad for taxpayers. Going to college used to be a good idea as it would allow you to stand out among your peers and guarantee you some sort of management/coordinating role. Nowadays, everyone has a bachelor degree and those who have a PhD are over-educated to the point that they've lost their sense of pragmatism. It doesn't allow anyone to stand out. Education feels like some scheme, disconnected from value-creation.
Amezarak 1y ago
At least in the US, the SSA projects current 30 year old men to live another 48 years, putting them dead around 78. 30 year old women are expected to die around 82. [1] A quick Google shows life expectancy is about three years higher in Denmark, not an extraordinary difference, and some of that number is probably lower infant mortality. Barring some revolutionary technological breakthrough, we aren't going to be living, on average, into our 90s. [1] https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_10.html https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_10.html

amag 1y ago

> are predicted to get to what 90-95 on average? That may be true, but will we (who are in our 40's now) have the same quality of life at 90-95 as a now 75-year old will have at 80-85?

duttish 1y ago

Does anyone know if there's any kind of metrics for healthspans? Meaning the "good" part of life before it's just doctors, medicine and retirement homes. My impression so far is that we've done a lot of work at the lifespan, less at the healthspan. What's the point of living until 90 if the last 15 years isn't that fun at all.

YokoZar 1y ago
Healthspan in Denmark, who just raised the retirement age, went up from 67.6 to 71.0 from 2000-2019. (+3.4 years) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/healthy-life-expectancy-at-birth?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~DNK https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/healthy-life-expectancy-a... Contrast this with Denmark's lifespan growth over the same period, of 76.8 to 81.4 (+4.6 years) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?time=2000..2019&country=~DNK https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?time=2000... So from the data, prior to covid-19 Danes had gained about 3 and a half years of healthy life, and an additional year of unhealthy life. It makes sense that Healthspan and lifespan are well-correlated, as most of the ways we have of extending lifespan do so in a way that makes you clearly healthier (such as preventing chronic diseases). That said, it is true there is a bit of an increasing gap. This isn't just in Denmark, it's global - lifespan rose by 6.4 years from 2000-2019 while healthspan only increased 5.3 years. https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-globa...
nullhole 1y ago
> Does anyone know if there's any kind of metrics for healthspans? Meaning the "good" part of life before it's just doctors, medicine and retirement homes. The metric I've come across is Quality Adjusted Life Years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year
the_black_hand 1y ago
But generally, work has gotten way less physically demanding so it balances out. Tech allows you to work in via Zoom in the comfort of your home. I hope to be coding literally till the day I die.

arexxbifs 1y ago

With an aging population and increasingly long work lives, individual stressors will increase and societal capacity for healthcare (and overall prosperity) will dwindle. Baby boomers, having lived through some of the most incredible growth in human history, will perhaps turn out to be an anomalous blip in the life expectancy stats. Also, people age differently. There's a difference between living and being alive. Not that it's an easy problem to solve, what with the demographics being what they are. I think we'll have to get used to the thought - and reality - of sinking living standards in the west.

HenryBemis 1y ago
You get downvoted a lot, but I challenge anyone to name a country that hasn't slashed _hard_ social benefits, pensions, % of GDP for healthcare, and similar.. I get it that some countries have had a plethora of scammers (prescribing pregnancy meds to men so docs can hit quotas and get bonuses/bribes from pharmaceutical companies, people trying to fake blindness to get an early retirement, etc. But overall reduction of cost with reduction of salaries will ultimately lead to worse healthcare. A friend was in Germany skiing this past winter. The 10k population town he was staying didn't have a paediatrician and they had to drive 2h to get care for their kid. In Germany, in 2025. I wonder how this very town will be in 2030 or 2050 with that trend..
- arexxbifs 1y ago
  It's a tough reality to face. Problems are piling up for the west that aren't easily solved, and not just with social benefits. Something as mundane as aging sewage systems is starting to become a real problem in many countries.
  - nradov 1y ago
    Demographic collapse is hardly unique to "the west". Have a look at the population age histogram in China, South Korea, and Japan.
    - 1y ago

jongjong 1y ago

Poorer individuals, who need retirement most, don't tend to live as long. Millennials and Gen Z are already victims of old, no-longer-applicable narratives (e.g. save cash, avoid debt, go to college...) and these ones about life expectancy will likely be added to the pile and used to disenfranchise us more while having no connection to reality.

bluGill 1y ago
Those old narritives were consiedered out dated for ever generation - but those who do it anyway tend to do well.
- arexxbifs 1y ago
  Sure, but one of the reasons that people have fewer children is a bigger risk of downward mobility. The cost of raising a child to an expected middle class living standard has increased substantially.
  - bluGill 1y ago
    many of those costs are optional. You don't have to put your kids in dance, karate, soccor, ... However many do, and all those things add up in costs. Speaking as a parent, there are plenty of options, some are really expesnive, and some cheap. You can choose which to pay for. note that the things I listed above are fun, but won't get yoru children into a great college and thus won't ensure a better life for them and yoru grandkids. Choose wisely where to spend your money.
- jongjong 1y ago
  Saving cash was actually a fine strategy when cash was backed by gold or even (to a lesser degree) some time later when the national debt wasn't over $30 trillion - This massive public debt is forcing the government to print money at a rapid rate to cover interest payments and this is creating enormous inflationary pressures. Society has become totally distorted around the goal of keeping this scheme going, the distortion has permeated every facet of human existence. Avoiding debt was a good idea when interest rates were high. In the modern age where money is not constrained by scarcity, interest rates have been low. Banks have been loaning out the people's money at near 0% interest rates; often towards the goal of helping corporations to monopolize industries; if it was YOUR money, would you loan it out at near 0% interest rate? It doesn't even cover inflation, let alone the risk of default... Yet the government has been doing exactly that with the people's money; YOUR money. The situation has never been so generous towards borrowers and so bad for taxpayers. Going to college used to be a good idea as it would allow you to stand out among your peers and guarantee you some sort of management/coordinating role. Nowadays, everyone has a bachelor degree and those who have a PhD are over-educated to the point that they've lost their sense of pragmatism. It doesn't allow anyone to stand out. Education feels like some scheme, disconnected from value-creation.

Amezarak 1y ago

At least in the US, the SSA projects current 30 year old men to live another 48 years, putting them dead around 78. 30 year old women are expected to die around 82. [1] A quick Google shows life expectancy is about three years higher in Denmark, not an extraordinary difference, and some of that number is probably lower infant mortality. Barring some revolutionary technological breakthrough, we aren't going to be living, on average, into our 90s. [1] https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_10.html https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_10.html