3 ms·
The probability of impeachment succeeding at this time is effectively zero.
by dekhn 1y ago
The probability of impeachment succeeding at this time is effectively zero.
- patagurbon 1y agoImpeachment of Kristi Noem could be more likely to succeed though.
- scoofy 1y agoIt’s zero if nobody actually says anything. The legislature has the power to reign in the president. They only have to threaten a bipartisan impeachment.
- fzeroracer 1y agoUnfortunately I don't see a route where Republicans vote for impeachment, ever. They're already refusing to listen to constituents, hiding from their elected duties and letting Trump freely crash the economy on a whim.
- DrillShopper 1y agoRepublicans will not give up power unless doing so saves their fortunes or saves their lives.
- anigbrowl 1y agoAnything difficult is effectively impossible until you decide to begin working on it.
- ceejayoz 1y agoSure, but there are "get your kid to eat veggies" levels of "effectively impossible", and then there's "quantum teleport into the bank vault" levels of it. This is more like the latter. There aren't many signs of us hitting the bottom thus far.
- insane_dreamer 1y agoEven if it were possible for Dems to get control of the house and impeach the prez, there is no way that Senate will convict unless the GOP Senate goes back to becoming the GOP instead of the MAGA-GOP, which seems extremely unlikely.
- lesuorac 1y agoIts interesting, you don't have enough republicans united to pass any of the agenda as law instead of executive orders but you also don't have 3 republicans willing to break to impeach for doing stuff they don't want (otherwise they'd pass it as law).
- InitialLastName 1y agoa) You need 2/3 of senators to vote to convict, so you would need ~20 Republicans to get on board. b) Impeachment is a political action; plenty of politicians can disagree with portions of their party's legislature enough to vote against it without saying "I'd like to burn down my party's control of the government (and thereby my career) over this".
- dragonwriter 1y ago> Its interesting, you don't have enough republicans united to pass any of the agenda as law instead of executive orders No, the decision to use executive fiat to normalize dictatorship is not undertaken because of the absence of support for the policy, but because of presence of support for normalizing dictatorship and avoiding the public in-advance debate of the legislative process.
- insane_dreamer 1y agoImpeachment (in the senate its conviction, technically) requires 2/3 majority. So a few republicans breaking ranks isn't going to cut it. This is why impeachment over the Jan 6 coup attempt failed even though 7 "old guard" Republicans (i.e., Cheney) voted in favor.
- Slava_Propanei 1y ago
- CGMthrowaway 1y agoA few million to Fusion GPS would be a good start
- IAmBroom 1y agoThe ONLY time a sitting POTUS has been politically removed from power by the mechanism of impeachment, or even seriously handicapped by it, was after the GOP constituency began howling at their congresspeople about the egregious behavior of the POTUS. They resisted caring up until that moment, and that was 50 years ago. The current GOP doesn't flinch when their candidate is found guilty of SA, with a long history of fraud and embezzlement. If Trump approved a simple burglary of a Democrat's office, it would barely make the news at this point. Not all infinitessimals are equal, just as not all infinities are equal.
- msabalau 1y agoEven if impeachment is off the cards, is it impossible to imagine that there could be any sort of impact from Republican lawmakers hearing Republican voters that, or other things are not what they voted for or want?
- dekhn 1y agoNot at this time, and I don't see it changing enough in 3 years to make any difference. The fear of being attacked by MAGA is still very high, I think the (older) republican leadership has decided to just wait this out.
- more_corn 1y agoImpeachment is the wrong tactic at this moment. Eroding support of the less hardline members of the party is key. Call your reps and say I didn’t sign up for this: [specific list of things]