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Ya, multiple failed predictions is an indicator of systemically bad predictors imo. That said, Scott Alexander usually does serious analysis instead of handwave
by pinkmuffinere 1y ago
Ya, multiple failed predictions is an indicator of systemically bad predictors imo. That said, Scott Alexander usually does serious analysis instead of handwavey hype, so I tend to believe him more than many others in the space.
My somewhat native take is that we’re still close to peak hype, AI will under deliver on the inflated expectations, and we’ll head into another “winter”. This pattern has repeated multiple times, so I think it’s fairly likely based on that alone. Real progress is made during each cycle, i think humans are just bad at containing excitement
- sigmaisaletter 1y agoI think you mean "somewhat naive" instead of "somewhat native". :) But, yes, this, in my mind the peak[1] bubble times ended with the DeepSeek shock earlier this year, and we are slowly on the downward trajectory now. It won't be slow for long, once people start realizing Sama was telling them a fairy tale, and AGI/ASI/singularity isn't "right around the corner", but (if achievable at all) at least two more technology triggers away. We got reasonably useful tools out of it, and thanks to Zuck, mostly for free (if you are an "investor", terms and conditions apply). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle