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China’s GDP growth is great but they will face a huge pain now that they face an unsustainable population decline. They have more people aged over 52 than young

by jorts 1y ago

China’s GDP growth is great but they will face a huge pain now that they face an unsustainable population decline. They have more people aged over 52 than younger. I empathize with their youth.

NhanH 1y ago
You are claiming that the median age in China is 52 or did I read this wrong? That would be beyond fake news level of statement (for my reading of the meaning) The current median age of China is about 40, which is not great for their context, but a world apart from 52.
ReptileMan 1y ago
The good thing about being authoritarian is that you can easily solve the births issue. The same way there was one child policy, there could be 3 or 4 with penalties for non compliance.
- jampekka 1y ago
  Highly unlikely CCP would pursue coercive birth policy, or even could do it if it wanted. CCP is extremely powerful but it still has to rely on the consent of the governed. It has to frequently roll back policies due to public outcry. Current birth rate increase policies in China are based mostly on rewarding for births and subsidizing parenting costs.
aylmao 1y ago
China is automating at an impressive rate. Isn’t automation easier to face with population decline than with population increase? I’d imagine young people mind getting replaced by machines more than old people.
- Ray20 1y ago
  >Isn’t automation easier to face with population decline than with population increase? No? These things do not seem to be connected in any way.
  - gambiting 1y ago
    I mean, of course they are. If you have a population increase you have plenty of young people who will complain that automation is taking their jobs. But with a population decrease you eventually end up with just old people and not enough working people to sweep the streets or wash cars or whatever - so automation is welcome because it doesn't "steal" jobs.
    - germinalphrase 1y ago
      I do not think that labor sentiment has a strong impact on whether or not jobs are automated away. Go watch an old movie from the 40’s or 50’s that features a hotel. The number of small, niche jobs that existed are surprisingly numerous by modern standards: porters, elevator operators, switchboard attendants, and so on. Busy places employing a lot of people. This was undoubtably true across industries, and we have automated away almost all those jobs one way or another without much fanfare. Sure - someone might have complained in the moment, but it’s death by a thousand cuts.
      - cogman10 1y ago
        This sort of automation along with consolidation has been the death of small cities and towns in the US. It's basically what's mostly killed my own small town. My hometown, with a fairly consistent population of about 300 people, used to have a restaurant, bowling alley, full-service station, hardware store, bar, and grocery store. In my childhood, the restaurant, grocery store, and hardware store were still around. They died. And they died partially because gas got cheap and partly because goods producers increasingly jacked up their prices to small suppliers because they didn't want to deal with them. It was simply more lucrative and easier to see 1000 units to walmart than 10 to "Small town USA grocer". Near the EOL of the grocer, they'd literally buy their good from walmart because they couldn't get them anywhere else. The cheap gas led to people from my town traveling to nearby larger towns and cities to find cheaper goods. The restaurant went out of business because it depended heavily on the prices of the local grocer. Towards the end, you'd literally call ahead the owner so they could open the doors and start cooking for you. I can't say what the solution to all this is. The market is simply busted for small time business owners who want to move any sort of physical good. That has had knock on effects nationwide that haven't been positive, particularly for rural america.

by jorts 1y ago

China’s GDP growth is great but they will face a huge pain now that they face an unsustainable population decline. They have more people aged over 52 than younger. I empathize with their youth.

NhanH 1y ago

You are claiming that the median age in China is 52 or did I read this wrong? That would be beyond fake news level of statement (for my reading of the meaning) The current median age of China is about 40, which is not great for their context, but a world apart from 52.

ReptileMan 1y ago

The good thing about being authoritarian is that you can easily solve the births issue. The same way there was one child policy, there could be 3 or 4 with penalties for non compliance.

jampekka 1y ago
Highly unlikely CCP would pursue coercive birth policy, or even could do it if it wanted. CCP is extremely powerful but it still has to rely on the consent of the governed. It has to frequently roll back policies due to public outcry. Current birth rate increase policies in China are based mostly on rewarding for births and subsidizing parenting costs.

aylmao 1y ago

China is automating at an impressive rate. Isn’t automation easier to face with population decline than with population increase? I’d imagine young people mind getting replaced by machines more than old people.

Ray20 1y ago
>Isn’t automation easier to face with population decline than with population increase? No? These things do not seem to be connected in any way.
- gambiting 1y ago
  I mean, of course they are. If you have a population increase you have plenty of young people who will complain that automation is taking their jobs. But with a population decrease you eventually end up with just old people and not enough working people to sweep the streets or wash cars or whatever - so automation is welcome because it doesn't "steal" jobs.
  - germinalphrase 1y ago
    I do not think that labor sentiment has a strong impact on whether or not jobs are automated away. Go watch an old movie from the 40’s or 50’s that features a hotel. The number of small, niche jobs that existed are surprisingly numerous by modern standards: porters, elevator operators, switchboard attendants, and so on. Busy places employing a lot of people. This was undoubtably true across industries, and we have automated away almost all those jobs one way or another without much fanfare. Sure - someone might have complained in the moment, but it’s death by a thousand cuts.
    - cogman10 1y ago
      This sort of automation along with consolidation has been the death of small cities and towns in the US. It's basically what's mostly killed my own small town. My hometown, with a fairly consistent population of about 300 people, used to have a restaurant, bowling alley, full-service station, hardware store, bar, and grocery store. In my childhood, the restaurant, grocery store, and hardware store were still around. They died. And they died partially because gas got cheap and partly because goods producers increasingly jacked up their prices to small suppliers because they didn't want to deal with them. It was simply more lucrative and easier to see 1000 units to walmart than 10 to "Small town USA grocer". Near the EOL of the grocer, they'd literally buy their good from walmart because they couldn't get them anywhere else. The cheap gas led to people from my town traveling to nearby larger towns and cities to find cheaper goods. The restaurant went out of business because it depended heavily on the prices of the local grocer. Towards the end, you'd literally call ahead the owner so they could open the doors and start cooking for you. I can't say what the solution to all this is. The market is simply busted for small time business owners who want to move any sort of physical good. That has had knock on effects nationwide that haven't been positive, particularly for rural america.