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Exporting business ownership when seen on a national level is just another form of debt. You're trading future production for stuff now. The fundamental probl

by treis 1y ago

Exporting business ownership when seen on a national level is just another form of debt. You're trading future production for stuff now. The fundamental problem is that the balance of goods flows into the US today. If debts and profits are going to be paid out eventually that will have to reverse. But it's going to be politically impossible for the US to ever send out 5-10% of its GDP in goods. That's the fundamental problem.

Anon1096 1y ago
You've fallen into the exact zero sum thinking trap that the parent comment mentioned. If investment causes the overall pie to be bigger, then both sides win with no tradeoff. > If debts and profits are going to be paid out eventually that will have to reverse. No it absolutely won't. The US exports financialization and technology services which don't show up on a trade deficit chart but do materially make the US and the world richer.
- treis 1y ago
  (1) Perception is reality. The pie might be bigger and the US might be better off but that's not what people will act on. (2) Foreign debt is growing faster than the pie. It's an unsustainable situation. Debt as a percent of GDP has gone from 10% in 2000 to 30% today.
- chessgecko 1y ago
  Or maybe a lot of it can't deliver returns in line with the current price. The world realizes that and stops sending us stuff for those investments. Then we're stuck with limited manufacturing, high inflation and relatively low ownership of our existing high value exports. If the pie gets bigger too slowly then I think we still lose.
- cryptonector 1y ago
  > You've fallen into the exact zero sum thinking trap that the parent comment mentioned. If investment causes the overall pie to be bigger, then both sides win with no tradeoff. The economy is _not_ a zero-sum game. The world economy is _not_ a zero-sum game. Trade very much _is_ a zero-sum game because all the exports of all the countries have to be equal imports in the others -- worldwide imports and exports must net to zero. GP's point, if I understood it -and idk if it's correct-, is that to pay off our debt we'll have to export more than we import, but that the rest of the world will not allow that. The part of GP's argument that sounds like "zero-sum games" is about world trade, and world trade is zero-sum even though the world economy is not zero-sum.
  - hiddencost 1y ago
    ? Trade is zero sum over what time with what metric? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
    - cryptonector 1y ago
      I explained. Exports and imports must net to zero. It's very simple. It's very obvious. Start with a one-country world: no exports, no imports, zero. Then add a country, so now A's exports have to equal B's imports. Add a third, and keep doing this until you're convinced.
ikiris 1y ago
If I buy an apple from an orchard with money, I haven’t indebted myself an apple man. I got a real product for effectively an iou that everyone pretends has value and that orchard can trade to someone else for fertilizer. You have the entire concept backwards.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]

by treis 1y ago

Anon1096 1y ago

You've fallen into the exact zero sum thinking trap that the parent comment mentioned. If investment causes the overall pie to be bigger, then both sides win with no tradeoff. > If debts and profits are going to be paid out eventually that will have to reverse. No it absolutely won't. The US exports financialization and technology services which don't show up on a trade deficit chart but do materially make the US and the world richer.

treis 1y ago
(1) Perception is reality. The pie might be bigger and the US might be better off but that's not what people will act on. (2) Foreign debt is growing faster than the pie. It's an unsustainable situation. Debt as a percent of GDP has gone from 10% in 2000 to 30% today.
chessgecko 1y ago
Or maybe a lot of it can't deliver returns in line with the current price. The world realizes that and stops sending us stuff for those investments. Then we're stuck with limited manufacturing, high inflation and relatively low ownership of our existing high value exports. If the pie gets bigger too slowly then I think we still lose.
cryptonector 1y ago
> You've fallen into the exact zero sum thinking trap that the parent comment mentioned. If investment causes the overall pie to be bigger, then both sides win with no tradeoff. The economy is _not_ a zero-sum game. The world economy is _not_ a zero-sum game. Trade very much _is_ a zero-sum game because all the exports of all the countries have to be equal imports in the others -- worldwide imports and exports must net to zero. GP's point, if I understood it -and idk if it's correct-, is that to pay off our debt we'll have to export more than we import, but that the rest of the world will not allow that. The part of GP's argument that sounds like "zero-sum games" is about world trade, and world trade is zero-sum even though the world economy is not zero-sum.
- hiddencost 1y ago
  ? Trade is zero sum over what time with what metric? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
  - cryptonector 1y ago
    I explained. Exports and imports must net to zero. It's very simple. It's very obvious. Start with a one-country world: no exports, no imports, zero. Then add a country, so now A's exports have to equal B's imports. Add a third, and keep doing this until you're convinced.

ikiris 1y ago

If I buy an apple from an orchard with money, I haven’t indebted myself an apple man. I got a real product for effectively an iou that everyone pretends has value and that orchard can trade to someone else for fertilizer. You have the entire concept backwards.

deleted 1y ago
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