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> Even in California, America’s EV market leader, sales are below the state’s own targets. Under the rule, in 2026, sales of zero-emissions vehicles should acco

> Even in California, America’s EV market leader, sales are below the state’s own targets. Under the rule, in 2026, sales of zero-emissions vehicles should account for 35% of all vehicle sales. Right now, they account for 20% of the state’s automobile market. Yikes. Sounds like if this mandate doesn’t get changed, Californians are staring down the barrel of a huge car buying crunch in ~7yrs, as people realize they only have a few more years to buy a gas vehicle. I’m a fan of EVs - I think every family should have one or two, but I’d also never want to be without a gas vehicle. Not having the option to buy one under any circumstances is pretty onerous.

SOLAR_FIELDS 1y ago
PHEV should be the intermediary solution IMO. It neatly solves 80% of the issues of owning either one or the other.
- MBCook 1y ago
  Should have been. 15 years ago. We’re long past that point. The automakers in the US mostly want to fight a war two wars ago. They’re careening towards international irrelevance fast with this crap. And we’ll either be dominated by the players that saw the truth, or stuck with overpriced protectionist crap.
  - Uvix 1y ago
    The US is certainly not "long past that point" in terms of charging infrastructure. So on their home turf, EV-only is a losing proposition. Which may drive them towards international irrelevance, but if they have to sacrifice one market or the other, that seems like the easier one to choose to lose.
    - MBCook 1y ago
      It’s long past the point hybrids were a good solution for the majority of cars. They were a good idea to start phasing in 20 years ago, when the Republicans decided that they were proof you were a tree hugger ivory palace stuck up asshole for even considering them. So we completely missed the entire thing. They were a never very big part of the market. And now people are saying we should transition to the thing that we should have been transitioning off of. California didn’t mandate EV only tomorrow. No sane person has mandated EV only in the US that soon. The chose 10 years from now. People vastly underestimate how much progress we can make in a relatively short time without massive individual improvements. People always think the future is much further out than it actually is, but when we look back it seems like things happened in a snap. Because we always underestimate ourselves. Every time infrastructure gets better, it enables more EVs. Every time battery technology gets better, it enables more EVs. It’s doable. Other countries are showing it can be done. If we get 5 or 7 years from now and find out we need to extend the deadlines some they can do that. Having the federal government come in and force a state to stick their head back in the sand until the political winds change doesn’t help anyone. Remember: states rights if we’re out of power, federalism if we’re not.
      - chneu 1y ago
        You can always count on Americans to do the right thing after they've tried everything else. I'm sorry MBCook but this is Murica. We're different. We don't have to do it that commie way because we can do it with the sturs and strips. /s
kjkjadksj 1y ago
This is why the automakers will win. People are turning on Tesla. And the rest of automakers offerings aren’t half as good. Automakers can put on the squeeze now by just continuing to let this market segment languish and then the legislature will have to do something in 2035 when not near enough people are switching to EV and there hasn’t been near enough infrastructure built due to the segment underperforming expectations and not getting sufficient infrastructure investment. It was one thing to mandate emissions when it was just a question of a cleaner gas car. We are retooling with evs effectively. I think the legislature bit off more than they can chew with this unless they start heavily subsidizing this industry themselves maybe even making a public ev company. Hard to do in times of austerity when everything that presently exists is in need of money let alone new expensive ideas.
- rangestransform 1y ago
  The fact that the existing automakers do not have competitive offerings when the model S came out in 2012 is entirely their own fault. For not figuring out where the wind is blowing and massively reorganizing their entire company, they deserve to die to Tesla, BYD, Xpeng, Nio, and everyone else who figured out how to build a usable EV. They could’ve also built charging infrastructure at their own expense, like Tesla did before the charging infrastructure tax credits.
  - kjkjadksj 1y ago
    Well this isn’t a nation that lets its automakers die. We bail them out and let their lobbyists craft almost all relevant legislation.
    - rangestransform 1y ago
      I hope they don’t get bailed out, UAW and manufacturers alike need a wake up call about their relationship with EVs and automation
- jkachmar 1y ago
  > And the rest of automakers offerings aren’t half as good. This was true maybe even as recently as 5 years ago, but it certainly isn’t true now. Tesla, at the top end, hasn’t been an attractive luxury proposition at least since the Hyundai Genesis & Mercedes EVs started rolling out. They had a shot at capturing the mid- to low-end market, but it looks like they’re in the process of blowing that as well. > Hard to do in times of austerity [..] The average American’s lifestyle is hardly austere — it _is_ precarious for very many (most?), but I don’t think that’s the same thing. You can now get refurb EVs (e.g. a Hyundai Ionia) with <50k miles for <$15k, and that’s in a not-inexpensive part of the US (northeast). Over the course of the next 10 years that used market is going to only grow, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect that a battery swap will be less costly than the sorts of overhauls high-mileage gasoline cars require so there _will_ be a solid used market.
Narkov 1y ago
> Californians are staring down the barrel of a huge car buying crunch in ~7yrs Yay the free market, hey?

SOLAR_FIELDS 1y ago

PHEV should be the intermediary solution IMO. It neatly solves 80% of the issues of owning either one or the other.

MBCook 1y ago
Should have been. 15 years ago. We’re long past that point. The automakers in the US mostly want to fight a war two wars ago. They’re careening towards international irrelevance fast with this crap. And we’ll either be dominated by the players that saw the truth, or stuck with overpriced protectionist crap.
- Uvix 1y ago
  The US is certainly not "long past that point" in terms of charging infrastructure. So on their home turf, EV-only is a losing proposition. Which may drive them towards international irrelevance, but if they have to sacrifice one market or the other, that seems like the easier one to choose to lose.
  - MBCook 1y ago
    It’s long past the point hybrids were a good solution for the majority of cars. They were a good idea to start phasing in 20 years ago, when the Republicans decided that they were proof you were a tree hugger ivory palace stuck up asshole for even considering them. So we completely missed the entire thing. They were a never very big part of the market. And now people are saying we should transition to the thing that we should have been transitioning off of. California didn’t mandate EV only tomorrow. No sane person has mandated EV only in the US that soon. The chose 10 years from now. People vastly underestimate how much progress we can make in a relatively short time without massive individual improvements. People always think the future is much further out than it actually is, but when we look back it seems like things happened in a snap. Because we always underestimate ourselves. Every time infrastructure gets better, it enables more EVs. Every time battery technology gets better, it enables more EVs. It’s doable. Other countries are showing it can be done. If we get 5 or 7 years from now and find out we need to extend the deadlines some they can do that. Having the federal government come in and force a state to stick their head back in the sand until the political winds change doesn’t help anyone. Remember: states rights if we’re out of power, federalism if we’re not.
    - chneu 1y ago
      You can always count on Americans to do the right thing after they've tried everything else. I'm sorry MBCook but this is Murica. We're different. We don't have to do it that commie way because we can do it with the sturs and strips. /s

kjkjadksj 1y ago

This is why the automakers will win. People are turning on Tesla. And the rest of automakers offerings aren’t half as good. Automakers can put on the squeeze now by just continuing to let this market segment languish and then the legislature will have to do something in 2035 when not near enough people are switching to EV and there hasn’t been near enough infrastructure built due to the segment underperforming expectations and not getting sufficient infrastructure investment. It was one thing to mandate emissions when it was just a question of a cleaner gas car. We are retooling with evs effectively. I think the legislature bit off more than they can chew with this unless they start heavily subsidizing this industry themselves maybe even making a public ev company. Hard to do in times of austerity when everything that presently exists is in need of money let alone new expensive ideas.

rangestransform 1y ago
The fact that the existing automakers do not have competitive offerings when the model S came out in 2012 is entirely their own fault. For not figuring out where the wind is blowing and massively reorganizing their entire company, they deserve to die to Tesla, BYD, Xpeng, Nio, and everyone else who figured out how to build a usable EV. They could’ve also built charging infrastructure at their own expense, like Tesla did before the charging infrastructure tax credits.
- kjkjadksj 1y ago
  Well this isn’t a nation that lets its automakers die. We bail them out and let their lobbyists craft almost all relevant legislation.
  - rangestransform 1y ago
    I hope they don’t get bailed out, UAW and manufacturers alike need a wake up call about their relationship with EVs and automation
jkachmar 1y ago
> And the rest of automakers offerings aren’t half as good. This was true maybe even as recently as 5 years ago, but it certainly isn’t true now. Tesla, at the top end, hasn’t been an attractive luxury proposition at least since the Hyundai Genesis & Mercedes EVs started rolling out. They had a shot at capturing the mid- to low-end market, but it looks like they’re in the process of blowing that as well. > Hard to do in times of austerity [..] The average American’s lifestyle is hardly austere — it _is_ precarious for very many (most?), but I don’t think that’s the same thing. You can now get refurb EVs (e.g. a Hyundai Ionia) with <50k miles for <$15k, and that’s in a not-inexpensive part of the US (northeast). Over the course of the next 10 years that used market is going to only grow, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect that a battery swap will be less costly than the sorts of overhauls high-mileage gasoline cars require so there _will_ be a solid used market.

Narkov 1y ago

> Californians are staring down the barrel of a huge car buying crunch in ~7yrs Yay the free market, hey?