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> In an age where all your significant opponents have nuclear ICBMs, anything which could look like a nuclear strike will be interpreted as such by your opponen

> In an age where all your significant opponents have nuclear ICBMs, anything which could look like a nuclear strike will be interpreted as such by your opponent in an open conflict and generate direct retaliation. This has happened before, and we're all alive because it doesn't really look like a nuclear strike: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident A single rocket heading your way is not the massive salvo of missiles that you would expect for a counter-force attack, and a counter-value attack means that you still have the option to retaliate.

Aeolun 1y ago
Oh, thanks. You said exactly what I was going to say. All the evidence points to people really not wanting to assume anything is a nuclear strike.
jltsiren 1y ago
In that specific case, Russians needed 8 minutes out of the 10-minute decision window to rule out a nuclear attack. And the key factor was that the rocket was not headed towards Russia. Now imagine that this is not a random peacetime incident but something that happens when both parties are expecting a war. This time the rocket is actually heading towards the capital or another strategic target. It's not a single rocket but a fleet of tens or even hundreds of rockets. And it's not a one-off incident but something that repeats a hundred times over the course of multiple wars. What are the chances that the target never misinterprets it as a nuclear attack? And what are the chances that the attacker never chooses to use nuclear weapons, after everyone has learned that an attack like this is not a nuclear attack?
StopDisinfo910 1y ago
> A single rocket heading your way is not the massive salvo of missiles The article actually talks about moving a whole army on dozens of large rockets preferably near your enemy capital city. The discussion never was about a single rocket which logistically has very little capacity. > This has happened before This hasn’t happen before. That’s in 1995, after the end of the Cold War in a peaceful era with a rocket from a country which doesn’t host ICBM. This incident has very little in common with what is being discussed and yet it still nearly gave way to retaliation. That’s actually nicely making my point about how out of touch what is being proposed is.

Aeolun 1y ago

Oh, thanks. You said exactly what I was going to say. All the evidence points to people really not wanting to assume anything is a nuclear strike.

jltsiren 1y ago

In that specific case, Russians needed 8 minutes out of the 10-minute decision window to rule out a nuclear attack. And the key factor was that the rocket was not headed towards Russia. Now imagine that this is not a random peacetime incident but something that happens when both parties are expecting a war. This time the rocket is actually heading towards the capital or another strategic target. It's not a single rocket but a fleet of tens or even hundreds of rockets. And it's not a one-off incident but something that repeats a hundred times over the course of multiple wars. What are the chances that the target never misinterprets it as a nuclear attack? And what are the chances that the attacker never chooses to use nuclear weapons, after everyone has learned that an attack like this is not a nuclear attack?

StopDisinfo910 1y ago

> A single rocket heading your way is not the massive salvo of missiles The article actually talks about moving a whole army on dozens of large rockets preferably near your enemy capital city. The discussion never was about a single rocket which logistically has very little capacity. > This has happened before This hasn’t happen before. That’s in 1995, after the end of the Cold War in a peaceful era with a rocket from a country which doesn’t host ICBM. This incident has very little in common with what is being discussed and yet it still nearly gave way to retaliation. That’s actually nicely making my point about how out of touch what is being proposed is.