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Since we haven’t had a war against a peer in like 80 years, we have basically no idea what it’d look like, right? I mean, everybody has a bunch of satellites up

Since we haven’t had a war against a peer in like 80 years, we have basically no idea what it’d look like, right? I mean, everybody has a bunch of satellites up there right now, and nobody wants to kick off Kessler syndrome. But if two sides with serious navies started fighting and everybody’s carriers were getting spotted by satellite, is it obvious that nobody would start running that calculation?

dmd 1y ago
> nobody wants to kick off Kessler syndrome Except the Trump administration, you mean. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/07/space-pollution-elon-musk https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/07/space-pollut...
nradov 1y ago
In any major near peer conflict the satellites will obviously be among the first casualties. The USA and China have been quietly engaging in an ASAT arms race for several years.
pjc50 1y ago
At some point the ICBM nuke exchange happens, as well.
- bee_rider 1y ago
  This adds a sort of weird bit because, of course, it isn’t really clear why we’d care about carrier performance against China, if we assume it would be an ICBM war anyway. Maybe a proxy war or some sort of limited thing could be envisioned… but it seems really risky. I hope we don’t do it obviously.
- credit_guy 1y ago
  Nuclear war may happen. I am giving more than a 50% chance that some form of nuclear weapon use in war will happen in my lifetime. But there are so many ways this could happen, from just a resumption of underground testing, to atmospheric testing, to dropping a bomb on an uninhabited island of the adversary, to detonating a bomb in space, to detonating a bomb inside your own territory while it's being overrun by the adversary, to detonating a bomb undersea with plausible deniability, and all the way to wiping out one city, or lots of cities. Nuclear war does not mean automatically end of civilization. Russia would like you to believe so, so they can prepare for all contingencies, but we don't.
timewizard 1y ago
Satellites require uplinks. You don't have to destroy anything in orbit if you can destroy the control station on the ground. Plus if we can hack into it and force it into graveyard while expending all it's fuel that's obviously the opening move.

dmd 1y ago

> nobody wants to kick off Kessler syndrome Except the Trump administration, you mean. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/07/space-pollution-elon-musk https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/07/space-pollut...

nradov 1y ago

In any major near peer conflict the satellites will obviously be among the first casualties. The USA and China have been quietly engaging in an ASAT arms race for several years.

pjc50 1y ago

At some point the ICBM nuke exchange happens, as well.

bee_rider 1y ago
This adds a sort of weird bit because, of course, it isn’t really clear why we’d care about carrier performance against China, if we assume it would be an ICBM war anyway. Maybe a proxy war or some sort of limited thing could be envisioned… but it seems really risky. I hope we don’t do it obviously.
credit_guy 1y ago
Nuclear war may happen. I am giving more than a 50% chance that some form of nuclear weapon use in war will happen in my lifetime. But there are so many ways this could happen, from just a resumption of underground testing, to atmospheric testing, to dropping a bomb on an uninhabited island of the adversary, to detonating a bomb in space, to detonating a bomb inside your own territory while it's being overrun by the adversary, to detonating a bomb undersea with plausible deniability, and all the way to wiping out one city, or lots of cities. Nuclear war does not mean automatically end of civilization. Russia would like you to believe so, so they can prepare for all contingencies, but we don't.

timewizard 1y ago

Satellites require uplinks. You don't have to destroy anything in orbit if you can destroy the control station on the ground. Plus if we can hack into it and force it into graveyard while expending all it's fuel that's obviously the opening move.