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Americans can raise more cash. They are still pretty unbeatable on that front. So until that changes they will always be ahead no matter what happens on the tec

by lwo32k 1y ago

Americans can raise more cash. They are still pretty unbeatable on that front. So until that changes they will always be ahead no matter what happens on the tech front.

jrvarela56 1y ago
Not if the Chinese govt is interested.
- chii 1y ago
  at the level of chinese gov't, the "cash" is going to pay for hardware. And it's american hardware currently leading the frontier, and the sanctions on it have made it hard to officially procure large amounts of compute from nvidia. So the chinese gov't will need to also invest in hardware production - and surely they are furiously doing so (and getting limited success, but success none the less). The american chip sanctions is, in my view, an own-goal. In the short term, it might cause some pain, but in the medium to long term, it is the kick that the chinese market would need to adapt. Necessity is the mother of all inventions after all. It might take 10 years, but i have no doubts that china can reach a level equal to that of TSMC. If the US administrations (both current and previous) had any brains, they should've seen this. They should've put subsidies into chips so that chinese production will not be competitive, and chinese firms will lose money if they go domestic. And the export of such hardware would balance the trade deficits.
  - peterlada 1y ago
    The "American" chips sanctions is outsourced. It is a single Dutch company (ASML) in EU which machines are installed in Taiwan. The EU which Humpty-Trumpy is working very hard to completely alienate...
  - jrvarela56 1y ago
    The assumption is that AGI could be near so all you need is a 5 year lead. In that sense, short term blocking despite giving them long term incentive to build manufacturing capacity is worth it.
JSR_FDED 1y ago
I think that’s too simple. You might find this paper from the Hoover Institution interesting, it w goes into some depth analyzing the implications of DeepSeek on US innovation: https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/Zegart_DeepSeekAI_Talent_FINAL_4-21.pdf https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/Zeg... Similarly, withholding funding for research, meddling in how universities are supposed to conduct their affairs, the reduced appeal of studying in the US for foreign students, putting wrestling promoter Linda McMahon in charge of dept of Education… these are all going to impact America’s research and innovation abilities.
coliveira 1y ago
The big resource in technology is not cash. It is human effort in engineering and science. Putting more cash into finite resources can only result in inflation, which makes additional cash useless.

by lwo32k 1y ago

Americans can raise more cash. They are still pretty unbeatable on that front. So until that changes they will always be ahead no matter what happens on the tech front.

jrvarela56 1y ago

Not if the Chinese govt is interested.

chii 1y ago
at the level of chinese gov't, the "cash" is going to pay for hardware. And it's american hardware currently leading the frontier, and the sanctions on it have made it hard to officially procure large amounts of compute from nvidia. So the chinese gov't will need to also invest in hardware production - and surely they are furiously doing so (and getting limited success, but success none the less). The american chip sanctions is, in my view, an own-goal. In the short term, it might cause some pain, but in the medium to long term, it is the kick that the chinese market would need to adapt. Necessity is the mother of all inventions after all. It might take 10 years, but i have no doubts that china can reach a level equal to that of TSMC. If the US administrations (both current and previous) had any brains, they should've seen this. They should've put subsidies into chips so that chinese production will not be competitive, and chinese firms will lose money if they go domestic. And the export of such hardware would balance the trade deficits.
- peterlada 1y ago
  The "American" chips sanctions is outsourced. It is a single Dutch company (ASML) in EU which machines are installed in Taiwan. The EU which Humpty-Trumpy is working very hard to completely alienate...
- jrvarela56 1y ago
  The assumption is that AGI could be near so all you need is a 5 year lead. In that sense, short term blocking despite giving them long term incentive to build manufacturing capacity is worth it.

JSR_FDED 1y ago

I think that’s too simple. You might find this paper from the Hoover Institution interesting, it w goes into some depth analyzing the implications of DeepSeek on US innovation: https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/Zegart_DeepSeekAI_Talent_FINAL_4-21.pdf https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/Zeg... Similarly, withholding funding for research, meddling in how universities are supposed to conduct their affairs, the reduced appeal of studying in the US for foreign students, putting wrestling promoter Linda McMahon in charge of dept of Education… these are all going to impact America’s research and innovation abilities.

coliveira 1y ago

The big resource in technology is not cash. It is human effort in engineering and science. Putting more cash into finite resources can only result in inflation, which makes additional cash useless.