8 ms·

U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough

22 points by prng2021 1y ago

incomingpain 1y ago
Futures are up ~3% on this news. admittedly I was shocked china and usa even went to the table.
- belter 1y ago
  Here are my predictions, since it's only fun when we make them before time: - This will not survive for more than 8 days, until the next unhinged tweets from you know who. - Scott Bessent will resign within the next 90 days. - Massive insider trading, prior to this announcement, will be discovered by journalists worth their name. - China realized that delay tactics would work in its favor.. The worst the economic impact on the US the better deal they will get.
  - watwut 1y ago
    No way Bessent will resign. He will be a praised genius hero regardless of results. Until someone manages to convince Trump that Bessent is not loyat. Then he will go, again, regardless of results.
    - belter 1y ago
      He almost did it before but is trying to save his career. This initiative was probably an ultimatum on his part. From the 4 of April: "Top Trump Official So Freaked Out by Tariffs, He Wants to Quit" - https://newrepublic.com/post/193634/donald-trump-treasury-scott-bessent-tariffs-quit https://newrepublic.com/post/193634/donald-trump-treasury-sc...
      - watwut 1y ago
        In the meantime, he defended Trump policies publicly. These leaks are just about Bessent, just like all the others, wanting to avoid public blame while also keeping the benefits of working for this particular government. Like, common.
        belter 1y ago
        Looks like he can't take it anymore: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CODFD3j623E https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CODFD3j623E
      - Animats 1y ago
        Bessent doesn't need to "save his career". He has a net worth somewhere above half a billion dollars, from his hedge fund days. He's 62. He has lots of options. He's taught economics, so he could get an academic appointment if he wanted one. Stanford and the Ivy League often get people like that in their later years. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, was chief of staff for a previous USTR, as well as being an international trade lawyer. So he actually knows what he's doing. He's only 45. Trump may fire him, but he goes down in history as the guy who fixed the China trade mess, at least temporarily. He now has a good shot at a Cabinet position in the next administration. If there's any sense left in the White House, those two will be allowed to do their job. These are the adults in the room. Not the 23 people the Trump Administration has hired from Fox News.[1] That's a big "if". [1] https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-fox-news-personalities-serving-donald-trump-administration-2070560 https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-fox-news-personalities-se...
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- mindslight 1y ago
  I'm surprised too. Given the bargaining positions, the question is what of ours did Trump give away to get China to agree. Or maybe long-term China is just happy to go back to things being calmer after Trump showed exactly how much they have us by the balls? I thought this guy was prepared to just ride his bomb all the way down to the ground. In retrospect that was a bit foolish because he actually can't sit still, despite being such low energy in general (lol, another typical old person behavior pattern). Is "the deal" entirely just market manipulation and flooding the zone with shit then? Or maybe Trump got more resistance than he planned to from the Fed, so now the goal is to try again in a few months? After he's figured out how to destroy that institution too, so he can mash the inflation button to paper over the markets again. (sheesh I would have never thought I'd be thankful for the Fed, strange times indeed)
  - aaronbaugher 1y ago
    It's not that surprising if you understand that Trump has never been anti-trade. The goal of the tariffs has always been "balanced trade": getting other countries to renegotiate the imbalanced trade deals setup by previous administrations of both parties for the benefit of their friends who made bank on the imbalance. Whether or not we agree that "balanced trade" is a good idea or his methods are a good way of getting it, that's been the stated goal from the start, contra the media hysteria. Other countries aren't stupid, so they know that, and while they're naturally reluctant to give up the sweet deals they've had with the US consumer market, they don't want to give up access to that market. That gives that market a lot of power in the discussion, power which simply hasn't been exercised before now because the people at the top liked the status quo.
    - mindslight 1y ago
      "Balanced trade" is still just a concept from the Trump fictional universe though, alongside other nonsense like needing physical goods making for a strong bargaining position. Outside of the fictional universe "balanced trade" means very little, because it doesn't take into account services, imaginary property, or our special ability to trade away long-term IOUs in a currency that we can arbitrarily devalue when need be. I do completely agree with the foundation of the argument that our privileged position as the world reserve currency has been used to hollow out our industrial base, put the screws to labor, and gut the distributed main street economy. But if you want to right the ship you have to get "up" correct first, and the Trump fictional universe definition of "up" is very obviously not correct. Actually achieving this specious metric of "balanced trade" would mean basically destroying the economy we do have. So this administration claiming this as their metric of success means it's very hard to tell if/when they will/would abandon it to pull out of a death spiral.
- thomassmith65 1y ago
  Trump constantly touts his own business genius. It may be the largest pillar supporting his self esteem. The tariffs could lead to a stock market crash. This prospect likely has haunted Trump relentlessly for the past few weeks, even if he puts on a brave face. No president, let alone a self-described business genius, wants a Great Depression named after them. If to avoid another stock market crash it took eating a bag of worms and handing Alaska to China, Trump would probably do it.
palata 1y ago
Doesn't that mean that Trump lost his bet (again)?
- watwut 1y ago
  No, it means art of the deal worked as intended, all economy problems are due to Biden. Trump, Bessent, Vance, Navarro, they are still all strong geniuses who made China to back down. Reality does not matter.
  - IAmGraydon 1y ago
    I'm pretty sure Trump was the one who was forced to back down, as China said they wouldn't negotiate unless the US rolls back to pre-April tariff levels. The US appears to have done exactly what China told them to.
    - watwut 1y ago
      I was being ironic. I agree with you.
inverted_flag 1y ago
So still nothing substantial yet, just more chaos.
mensetmanusman 1y ago
The deflation in China has forced their hand. America has such a stronger hand here.
- belter 1y ago
  They both raised tariffs approximately the same on each other, and lowered by the same exact amount on each other. Nothing changed other than a promise there might be another meeting in the future. Situation looks almost the same as before.
- watwut 1y ago
  What forced hand? America imposed tariffs, China retaliated. America insulted China and the said they want China to offer deal, China said they won't offer anything until America lowers tariffs. America lowered tariffs and China responded by lowering tariffs too. They are both still very high, just not insane hard. What exact strong hand are you talking about?
  - mensetmanusman 1y ago
    The strong hand has to do with the reason China is censoring all its relevant economic data.
suraci 1y ago
[flagged]

22 points by prng2021 1y ago

incomingpain 1y ago

Futures are up ~3% on this news. admittedly I was shocked china and usa even went to the table.

belter 1y ago
Here are my predictions, since it's only fun when we make them before time: - This will not survive for more than 8 days, until the next unhinged tweets from you know who. - Scott Bessent will resign within the next 90 days. - Massive insider trading, prior to this announcement, will be discovered by journalists worth their name. - China realized that delay tactics would work in its favor.. The worst the economic impact on the US the better deal they will get.
- watwut 1y ago
  No way Bessent will resign. He will be a praised genius hero regardless of results. Until someone manages to convince Trump that Bessent is not loyat. Then he will go, again, regardless of results.
  - belter 1y ago
    He almost did it before but is trying to save his career. This initiative was probably an ultimatum on his part. From the 4 of April: "Top Trump Official So Freaked Out by Tariffs, He Wants to Quit" - https://newrepublic.com/post/193634/donald-trump-treasury-scott-bessent-tariffs-quit https://newrepublic.com/post/193634/donald-trump-treasury-sc...
    - watwut 1y ago
      In the meantime, he defended Trump policies publicly. These leaks are just about Bessent, just like all the others, wanting to avoid public blame while also keeping the benefits of working for this particular government. Like, common.
      - belter 1y ago
        Looks like he can't take it anymore: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CODFD3j623E https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CODFD3j623E
    - Animats 1y ago
      Bessent doesn't need to "save his career". He has a net worth somewhere above half a billion dollars, from his hedge fund days. He's 62. He has lots of options. He's taught economics, so he could get an academic appointment if he wanted one. Stanford and the Ivy League often get people like that in their later years. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, was chief of staff for a previous USTR, as well as being an international trade lawyer. So he actually knows what he's doing. He's only 45. Trump may fire him, but he goes down in history as the guy who fixed the China trade mess, at least temporarily. He now has a good shot at a Cabinet position in the next administration. If there's any sense left in the White House, those two will be allowed to do their job. These are the adults in the room. Not the 23 people the Trump Administration has hired from Fox News.[1] That's a big "if". [1] https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-fox-news-personalities-serving-donald-trump-administration-2070560 https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-fox-news-personalities-se...
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
mindslight 1y ago
I'm surprised too. Given the bargaining positions, the question is what of ours did Trump give away to get China to agree. Or maybe long-term China is just happy to go back to things being calmer after Trump showed exactly how much they have us by the balls? I thought this guy was prepared to just ride his bomb all the way down to the ground. In retrospect that was a bit foolish because he actually can't sit still, despite being such low energy in general (lol, another typical old person behavior pattern). Is "the deal" entirely just market manipulation and flooding the zone with shit then? Or maybe Trump got more resistance than he planned to from the Fed, so now the goal is to try again in a few months? After he's figured out how to destroy that institution too, so he can mash the inflation button to paper over the markets again. (sheesh I would have never thought I'd be thankful for the Fed, strange times indeed)
- aaronbaugher 1y ago
  It's not that surprising if you understand that Trump has never been anti-trade. The goal of the tariffs has always been "balanced trade": getting other countries to renegotiate the imbalanced trade deals setup by previous administrations of both parties for the benefit of their friends who made bank on the imbalance. Whether or not we agree that "balanced trade" is a good idea or his methods are a good way of getting it, that's been the stated goal from the start, contra the media hysteria. Other countries aren't stupid, so they know that, and while they're naturally reluctant to give up the sweet deals they've had with the US consumer market, they don't want to give up access to that market. That gives that market a lot of power in the discussion, power which simply hasn't been exercised before now because the people at the top liked the status quo.
  - mindslight 1y ago
    "Balanced trade" is still just a concept from the Trump fictional universe though, alongside other nonsense like needing physical goods making for a strong bargaining position. Outside of the fictional universe "balanced trade" means very little, because it doesn't take into account services, imaginary property, or our special ability to trade away long-term IOUs in a currency that we can arbitrarily devalue when need be. I do completely agree with the foundation of the argument that our privileged position as the world reserve currency has been used to hollow out our industrial base, put the screws to labor, and gut the distributed main street economy. But if you want to right the ship you have to get "up" correct first, and the Trump fictional universe definition of "up" is very obviously not correct. Actually achieving this specious metric of "balanced trade" would mean basically destroying the economy we do have. So this administration claiming this as their metric of success means it's very hard to tell if/when they will/would abandon it to pull out of a death spiral.
thomassmith65 1y ago
Trump constantly touts his own business genius. It may be the largest pillar supporting his self esteem. The tariffs could lead to a stock market crash. This prospect likely has haunted Trump relentlessly for the past few weeks, even if he puts on a brave face. No president, let alone a self-described business genius, wants a Great Depression named after them. If to avoid another stock market crash it took eating a bag of worms and handing Alaska to China, Trump would probably do it.

palata 1y ago

Doesn't that mean that Trump lost his bet (again)?

watwut 1y ago
No, it means art of the deal worked as intended, all economy problems are due to Biden. Trump, Bessent, Vance, Navarro, they are still all strong geniuses who made China to back down. Reality does not matter.
- IAmGraydon 1y ago
  I'm pretty sure Trump was the one who was forced to back down, as China said they wouldn't negotiate unless the US rolls back to pre-April tariff levels. The US appears to have done exactly what China told them to.
  - watwut 1y ago
    I was being ironic. I agree with you.

inverted_flag 1y ago

So still nothing substantial yet, just more chaos.

mensetmanusman 1y ago

The deflation in China has forced their hand. America has such a stronger hand here.

belter 1y ago
They both raised tariffs approximately the same on each other, and lowered by the same exact amount on each other. Nothing changed other than a promise there might be another meeting in the future. Situation looks almost the same as before.
watwut 1y ago
What forced hand? America imposed tariffs, China retaliated. America insulted China and the said they want China to offer deal, China said they won't offer anything until America lowers tariffs. America lowered tariffs and China responded by lowering tariffs too. They are both still very high, just not insane hard. What exact strong hand are you talking about?
- mensetmanusman 1y ago
  The strong hand has to do with the reason China is censoring all its relevant economic data.

suraci 1y ago

[flagged]