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Was this published before the Pope was elected? The article byline indicates 08 May 2025 but response header shows Last-Modified: Fri, 09 May 2025 13:39:02 GMT

Was this published before the Pope was elected? The article byline indicates 08 May 2025 but response header shows Last-Modified: Fri, 09 May 2025 13:39:02 GMT and the earliest entry in the Internet Archive is Fri, 09 May 2025 12:28:01 GMT. The white smoke emerged from the Vatican Thu, 08 May 2025 16:07 GMT and Pope Leo XIV was announced shortly thereafter.

riedel 1y ago
It is not that unlikely that some model predicts the right outcome. The only question is: can it be reproduced?
- SamBam 1y ago
  Forcing the conditions to allow this to be reproduced quickly would probably be unethical.
  - BobaFloutist 1y ago
    I know (of) a guy...
schrodinger 1y ago
Interesting observation! One explanation: There’s a “Research” heading at the bottom that links to an article from today: “The Long Hand of Brussels on U.S. Businesses”, 09 May 2025 by Barbara Orlando. Maybe they have a static site generator or even dynamic with caching that piled this in?
croes 1y ago
And even if. Just publish multiple versions and keep the one that is right.
victorbjorklund 1y ago
Linkedin post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-to-read-the-papal-election-activity-7326160142171820032-Gpw4 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-... Posted at Thu, 08 May 2025 08:24:51 GMT according to https://trevorfox.com/linkedin-post-date-extractor.html https://trevorfox.com/linkedin-post-date-extractor.html
- rrherr 1y ago
  Thanks! Also, according to that LinkedIn post date extractor, this post by first author Giuseppe Soda was made on Thu, 08 May 2025 06:22:28 GMT: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/giuseppe-beppe-soda-414749b0_in-the-network-of-the-conclave-bocconi-activity-7326129343309484035-Xr-l/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/giuseppe-beppe-soda-414749b0_...
- losteric 1y ago
  Prevost was at the top of the "status" list. They also published guesses by "information control" and "coalition building".
  - victorbjorklund 1y ago
    Totally. I'm not super impressed.
- divbzero 1y ago
  Thank you! That answers my question definitively. It’s notable, of course, that Robert Prevost was highlighted in this post but left off of many other lists of papal candidates.
  - leoedin 1y ago
    We’re only reading this particular list because Robert Prevost was at the top of it!
rrherr 1y ago
Good question! Leonardo Rizzo, one of the researchers, claimed on X.com that they published before the Pope was elected. An X user commented: > “Guessed” after the fact. Interesting nonetheless and worth sharing before the event next time! Rizzo replied: > Thanks a lot! We shared it the 8th morning on linkedin, the university website and few other sources (italian press). Next time I’ll also share it on X https://x.com/LnrdRizzo/status/1920841806096343409 https://x.com/LnrdRizzo/status/1920841806096343409 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-to-read-the-papal-election-activity-7326160142171820032-Gpw4/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-...

riedel 1y ago

It is not that unlikely that some model predicts the right outcome. The only question is: can it be reproduced?

SamBam 1y ago
Forcing the conditions to allow this to be reproduced quickly would probably be unethical.
- BobaFloutist 1y ago
  I know (of) a guy...

schrodinger 1y ago

Interesting observation! One explanation: There’s a “Research” heading at the bottom that links to an article from today: “The Long Hand of Brussels on U.S. Businesses”, 09 May 2025 by Barbara Orlando. Maybe they have a static site generator or even dynamic with caching that piled this in?

croes 1y ago

And even if. Just publish multiple versions and keep the one that is right.

victorbjorklund 1y ago

Linkedin post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-to-read-the-papal-election-activity-7326160142171820032-Gpw4 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-... Posted at Thu, 08 May 2025 08:24:51 GMT according to https://trevorfox.com/linkedin-post-date-extractor.html https://trevorfox.com/linkedin-post-date-extractor.html

rrherr 1y ago
Thanks! Also, according to that LinkedIn post date extractor, this post by first author Giuseppe Soda was made on Thu, 08 May 2025 06:22:28 GMT: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/giuseppe-beppe-soda-414749b0_in-the-network-of-the-conclave-bocconi-activity-7326129343309484035-Xr-l/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/giuseppe-beppe-soda-414749b0_...
losteric 1y ago
Prevost was at the top of the "status" list. They also published guesses by "information control" and "coalition building".
- victorbjorklund 1y ago
  Totally. I'm not super impressed.
divbzero 1y ago
Thank you! That answers my question definitively. It’s notable, of course, that Robert Prevost was highlighted in this post but left off of many other lists of papal candidates.
- leoedin 1y ago
  We’re only reading this particular list because Robert Prevost was at the top of it!

rrherr 1y ago

Good question! Leonardo Rizzo, one of the researchers, claimed on X.com that they published before the Pope was elected. An X user commented: > “Guessed” after the fact. Interesting nonetheless and worth sharing before the event next time! Rizzo replied: > Thanks a lot! We shared it the 8th morning on linkedin, the university website and few other sources (italian press). Next time I’ll also share it on X https://x.com/LnrdRizzo/status/1920841806096343409 https://x.com/LnrdRizzo/status/1920841806096343409 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-to-read-the-papal-election-activity-7326160142171820032-Gpw4/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/universita-bocconi_a-new-way-...