5 ms·

Hanlon's razor

fspoettel 1y ago
I would normally second this, but the Trump admin did order a suspension of offensive cyber operations against Russia in March. So not sure you can truly rule out malice in this case.
- sorcerer-mar 1y ago
  And also asked Russian intelligence services to hack his opponent in 2016, which they did the next day.
  - conartist6 1y ago
    you could not make this shit up, right!?
    - SauciestGNU 1y ago
      There was specifically the televised "Russia, if you're listening..." quip followed by the release of the DNC emails.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
  >a suspension of offensive cyber operations against Russia in March. uhhh... why are we commiting offensive cyber operations against a nuclear power? Somewhere in your line you seems to think that it's justified? And that biden was doing the right thing by provoking a major power? Some people just want the world to burn, and when someone puts out the fire, they think that's unamerican?
  - Rexxar 1y ago
    > why are we commiting offensive cyber operations against a nuclear power? Maybe because they are doing it too ?
    - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
      Such Biden logic that ended with us launching missiles into russia. A constant escalation with no real end in sight and always matching "tit-for-tat- instead of trying to solve the root issue. You don't think trump is actively involved in negotations with russia to stop all this madness? Don't you think that one of the first signs of good faith in negotations would be to stop attacking eachother?
      - psadauskas 1y ago
        You misspelled Reagan. (Though to be fair, every president since Truman has escalated things with Russia/USSR, except maybe Clinton. Reagan just did more than most.) > You don't think trump is actively involved in negotations[sic] with russia to stop all this madness? No, I think Trump is doing whatever Putin wants him to do.
        TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
        No other president has given explicit permission to launch american missles and use american guidance systems to launch missles into russian territory... Besides biden. What are you talking about? And you forgot... besides Trump. because trumps not a warmonger, people like to act like he's on the side of the russians. People have lost their minds.
        psadauskas 1y ago
        > trumps not a warmonger In the last 3 months, Trump has threatened to invade: - Greenland - Canada - Mexico - Panama - Cuba > people like to act like he's on the side of the russians Trump has said that Ukraine is the one that started the war, and the "deal" he negotiated to end the war excluded Ukraine from the discussion and would give Russia everything it asked for. > People have lost their minds. You're right on that point, but its probably not the people you're thinking of.
  - camel_Snake 1y ago
    Because when someone punches you in the face, you punch back? Also I don't know why we keep referring to Russia as a major power, their GDP is about the size of Italy's, their economy is on the rocks, their military stockpile is depleted from a failed invasion of their much, much smaller neighbor.
    - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
      failed operation? Have you seen the war map? After the whole world dumped all their stockpiles to ukraine for over $500B, the russians have still taken over a 3rd of the country. Biden logic was going to lead to a american troops on the ground, and a vietnam all over again. Russia didn't punch us in the face, they punched some dude that we barley knew in highschool half way across the world.
      - mopsi 1y ago
        Your numbers are way off. Ukraine has not received "over $500B". According to the Kiel institute tracker, as of February, the total military support for Ukraine from all all over the world combined stands at 132 billion EUR (~148bn USD). Nor does Russia control a third of the country. Russia controls 18.3%, of which 7.05% was occupied before 2022 and 11.25% since then. The total area held by Russia peaked in the first month of the war at 25.86%, was reduced to 18% with Ukrainian counteroffensives, and has stood there since the late 2022. Scroll to "Overall control of Ukraine": https://www.warmapper.org/stats https://www.warmapper.org/stats While looking at the chart, keep in mind that Russia currently loses around 30-45k people a month as dead and wounded and they have nothing to show for it. The last major territorial gains were during the first month of the war in March 2022. It's a total military disaster with no end in sight. And the person you replied to is absolutely right: Russia is not fighting for the potato fields of Ukraine, but to dismantle the entire international security system that the US built after the WWII to secure commerce and influence on the world. Ukraine is one of the stepping stones. Here's the full blueprint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Content https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...
foobahhhhh 1y ago
[flagged]
- poincaredisk 1y ago
  Yeah, sure. Seeing a conspiracy and 4d chess in everything is a proof of having an enlightened mind. I work in this space and many actors, including nation state actors, are just incompetent. You may not believe me, that's OK.
  - SkipperCat 1y ago
    This isn't an example of incompetence. DOGE staff broke laws when they connected their personal computers to classified system. They knew better, plenty of people told them not to do this and they still did it. They could have followed OpSec rules and still done their work. They chose not to do so. Their willful disobedience of the laws and OpSec might stem from multiple rationals, but it doesn't matter, because their actions are criminal and their negligence is beyond incompetence.
namaria 1y ago
The caveat is that intentional stupidity is indistinguishable from malice.
- sys_64738 1y ago
  In law we shouldn't be focused on ignorance and cluelessness. The outcome of what they have allowed is the crime. All the DOGE dudes need life without parole.
  - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
    Do you actually believe that? Do you not think that at least SOME OF THEM, are working their asses off to save american tax payer dollars? Can you point to any of the contracts in the wall of savings that have saved billions of dollars and disagree with any of them? https://doge.gov/savings https://doge.gov/savings
    - AlotOfReading 1y ago
      Did you look through that page before posting it? Currently, the default list of biggest savings is topped by things like eliminating a refugee intake facility, various HHS programs making sure public housing meets basic standards of habitability, and eradicating polio. Is the argument that government was so efficient before that eliminating these seemingly useful programs was the best and only way to save taxpayer dollars?
      - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
        I guess we just disagree on what's important. $2.9B for 3,000 children. That's 967K per child. What in the actual fuck? https://www.fpds.gov/common/jsp/LaunchWebPage.jsp?command=execute&requestid=278830486&version=1.5 https://www.fpds.gov/common/jsp/LaunchWebPage.jsp?command=ex... Edit: the contract was 3.3B, so that changes the calculus to 1,109,966.78 per child. Haven't seen the facility, but i highly doubt they are staying in million dollar condos, but if they are... there are better ways to do that. $1,136,436,294.65 for paying their legal services... Why are we paying a billion dollars for legal services of a program we have discontinued? 1,021,000,000 to eradicate polio... Of which that last case in the united states was in 2022... Polio is all but irradicated here in the united states. We just seem to disagree with what's important and what's wasteful. You could build a brand new city for those amounts in the private sector.
UncleMeat 1y ago
This is not an invincible decision making tool. It does not mean that literally every thing that can be explained by idiocy must be. We might start by leaning towards idiocy as an explanation but we are allowed to adjust our opinion as we see more and more information.
- watwut 1y ago
  Hanlon's razor was originally a joke. Not like, serious observation about how world works.
psadauskas 1y ago
¿Por qué no los dos? (Spanish for _Why not both?_)
watwut 1y ago
Hanlon's razor is overused and abused. Quite often, it is actually a malice and if you are willing to look at the situation dispassionately, it is quite visible. Hanlon's razor was originally a joke. Not a scientific observation how world works, but a funny sentence about there being a lot of incompetence in the world.
GuinansEyebrows 1y ago
Hanlon's razor has been weaponized against good-faith applications
threatofrain 1y ago
Hanlon's razor is for a peaceful heart, not for helping you win bets.
amelius 1y ago
Hanlon's razor can be taken advantage of.

Hanlon's razor

I would normally second this, but the Trump admin did order a suspension of offensive cyber operations against Russia in March. So not sure you can truly rule out malice in this case.

sorcerer-mar 1y ago
And also asked Russian intelligence services to hack his opponent in 2016, which they did the next day.
- conartist6 1y ago
  you could not make this shit up, right!?
  - SauciestGNU 1y ago
    There was specifically the televised "Russia, if you're listening..." quip followed by the release of the DNC emails.
TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
>a suspension of offensive cyber operations against Russia in March. uhhh... why are we commiting offensive cyber operations against a nuclear power? Somewhere in your line you seems to think that it's justified? And that biden was doing the right thing by provoking a major power? Some people just want the world to burn, and when someone puts out the fire, they think that's unamerican?
- Rexxar 1y ago
  > why are we commiting offensive cyber operations against a nuclear power? Maybe because they are doing it too ?
  - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
    Such Biden logic that ended with us launching missiles into russia. A constant escalation with no real end in sight and always matching "tit-for-tat- instead of trying to solve the root issue. You don't think trump is actively involved in negotations with russia to stop all this madness? Don't you think that one of the first signs of good faith in negotations would be to stop attacking eachother?
    - psadauskas 1y ago
      You misspelled Reagan. (Though to be fair, every president since Truman has escalated things with Russia/USSR, except maybe Clinton. Reagan just did more than most.) > You don't think trump is actively involved in negotations[sic] with russia to stop all this madness? No, I think Trump is doing whatever Putin wants him to do.
      - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
        No other president has given explicit permission to launch american missles and use american guidance systems to launch missles into russian territory... Besides biden. What are you talking about? And you forgot... besides Trump. because trumps not a warmonger, people like to act like he's on the side of the russians. People have lost their minds.
        psadauskas 1y ago
        > trumps not a warmonger In the last 3 months, Trump has threatened to invade: - Greenland - Canada - Mexico - Panama - Cuba > people like to act like he's on the side of the russians Trump has said that Ukraine is the one that started the war, and the "deal" he negotiated to end the war excluded Ukraine from the discussion and would give Russia everything it asked for. > People have lost their minds. You're right on that point, but its probably not the people you're thinking of.
- camel_Snake 1y ago
  Because when someone punches you in the face, you punch back? Also I don't know why we keep referring to Russia as a major power, their GDP is about the size of Italy's, their economy is on the rocks, their military stockpile is depleted from a failed invasion of their much, much smaller neighbor.
  - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
    failed operation? Have you seen the war map? After the whole world dumped all their stockpiles to ukraine for over $500B, the russians have still taken over a 3rd of the country. Biden logic was going to lead to a american troops on the ground, and a vietnam all over again. Russia didn't punch us in the face, they punched some dude that we barley knew in highschool half way across the world.
    - mopsi 1y ago
      Your numbers are way off. Ukraine has not received "over $500B". According to the Kiel institute tracker, as of February, the total military support for Ukraine from all all over the world combined stands at 132 billion EUR (~148bn USD). Nor does Russia control a third of the country. Russia controls 18.3%, of which 7.05% was occupied before 2022 and 11.25% since then. The total area held by Russia peaked in the first month of the war at 25.86%, was reduced to 18% with Ukrainian counteroffensives, and has stood there since the late 2022. Scroll to "Overall control of Ukraine": https://www.warmapper.org/stats https://www.warmapper.org/stats While looking at the chart, keep in mind that Russia currently loses around 30-45k people a month as dead and wounded and they have nothing to show for it. The last major territorial gains were during the first month of the war in March 2022. It's a total military disaster with no end in sight. And the person you replied to is absolutely right: Russia is not fighting for the potato fields of Ukraine, but to dismantle the entire international security system that the US built after the WWII to secure commerce and influence on the world. Ukraine is one of the stepping stones. Here's the full blueprint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Content https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...

foobahhhhh 1y ago

[flagged]

poincaredisk 1y ago
Yeah, sure. Seeing a conspiracy and 4d chess in everything is a proof of having an enlightened mind. I work in this space and many actors, including nation state actors, are just incompetent. You may not believe me, that's OK.
- SkipperCat 1y ago
  This isn't an example of incompetence. DOGE staff broke laws when they connected their personal computers to classified system. They knew better, plenty of people told them not to do this and they still did it. They could have followed OpSec rules and still done their work. They chose not to do so. Their willful disobedience of the laws and OpSec might stem from multiple rationals, but it doesn't matter, because their actions are criminal and their negligence is beyond incompetence.

namaria 1y ago

The caveat is that intentional stupidity is indistinguishable from malice.

sys_64738 1y ago
In law we shouldn't be focused on ignorance and cluelessness. The outcome of what they have allowed is the crime. All the DOGE dudes need life without parole.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
  Do you actually believe that? Do you not think that at least SOME OF THEM, are working their asses off to save american tax payer dollars? Can you point to any of the contracts in the wall of savings that have saved billions of dollars and disagree with any of them? https://doge.gov/savings https://doge.gov/savings
  - AlotOfReading 1y ago
    Did you look through that page before posting it? Currently, the default list of biggest savings is topped by things like eliminating a refugee intake facility, various HHS programs making sure public housing meets basic standards of habitability, and eradicating polio. Is the argument that government was so efficient before that eliminating these seemingly useful programs was the best and only way to save taxpayer dollars?
    - TrapLord_Rhodo 1y ago
      I guess we just disagree on what's important. $2.9B for 3,000 children. That's 967K per child. What in the actual fuck? https://www.fpds.gov/common/jsp/LaunchWebPage.jsp?command=execute&requestid=278830486&version=1.5 https://www.fpds.gov/common/jsp/LaunchWebPage.jsp?command=ex... Edit: the contract was 3.3B, so that changes the calculus to 1,109,966.78 per child. Haven't seen the facility, but i highly doubt they are staying in million dollar condos, but if they are... there are better ways to do that. $1,136,436,294.65 for paying their legal services... Why are we paying a billion dollars for legal services of a program we have discontinued? 1,021,000,000 to eradicate polio... Of which that last case in the united states was in 2022... Polio is all but irradicated here in the united states. We just seem to disagree with what's important and what's wasteful. You could build a brand new city for those amounts in the private sector.

UncleMeat 1y ago

This is not an invincible decision making tool. It does not mean that literally every thing that can be explained by idiocy must be. We might start by leaning towards idiocy as an explanation but we are allowed to adjust our opinion as we see more and more information.

watwut 1y ago
Hanlon's razor was originally a joke. Not like, serious observation about how world works.

psadauskas 1y ago

¿Por qué no los dos? (Spanish for _Why not both?_)

watwut 1y ago

Hanlon's razor is overused and abused. Quite often, it is actually a malice and if you are willing to look at the situation dispassionately, it is quite visible. Hanlon's razor was originally a joke. Not a scientific observation how world works, but a funny sentence about there being a lot of incompetence in the world.

GuinansEyebrows 1y ago

Hanlon's razor has been weaponized against good-faith applications

threatofrain 1y ago

Hanlon's razor is for a peaceful heart, not for helping you win bets.

amelius 1y ago

Hanlon's razor can be taken advantage of.