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The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indi

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water-will-flow-only-in-india-vows-pm-modi-amid-tensions-with-pakistan-over-suspension-of-indus-waters-treaty/articleshow/120937628.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

alephnerd 1y ago
Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT. The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harvest in Northeast Punjab. I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's "Military Inc" to understand the Pakistani army (she was forced into exile because of the book), and "Army and Nation" by Steven Wilkinson to understand India's army.
- MichaelMoser123 1y ago
  I hope you are right, however: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension Following the suspension of the treaty, India significantly reduced the flow of water through the Chenab River, which crosses into Pakistan. Pakistani authorities claimed a 90% drop in water supply and accused India of choking the river’s flow. India also initiated new hydroelectric projects and began constructing dams on the western rivers, actions previously constrained under the treaty.[125][126][127] Pakistan has reportedly warned that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers could be considered an act of war, and would attack India with nuclear weapons.[128]
  - dmix 1y ago
    Just sounds like a good deterrence for Pakistan to not go to war to me. It really is in their hands right now. India just wants to save face over the terror attacks, a very easy game to play diplomatically. This missile strike was even smaller and more symbolic than even the Israeli Iranian ones. And those two are much more inclined (and far more prepared) to do something stupid.
    - arjun1296 1y ago
      [dead]
- mayama 1y ago
  > Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT. India could build water channel, in style of China's South North water transfer project in less than half decade. Huge dams aren't really needed for just diversion, if India is really serious about it.
alganet 1y ago
Fury Road could be seen as a reverse adaptation sequel of "Lolita" though. The end of Lolita (old guy on a road, frustrated, goes off path) fits with the Furiosa taking a detour. The roles are reversed. The young girl leaves in triumph (opposed to: the old guy leaves in frustration) and the old guy goes after her (opposed to: the young girl doesn't care about him leaving). It could be just the skeleton of the story though. Water is unobtanium of their scenic universe. In that movie perspective, it's related to healthy reproduction (healthy babies!), most likely cultural and not genetic. As any work of art, it is subject to many interpretations. Not everything is a cue. But some cues exist in fact. Contrary to the meme swarm, you can't turn those ideas so quickly into what you want, otherwise it fails to connect to a sense of cultural continuity.
- alganet 1y ago
  If you saw the cultural continuity, you can them jump to "Man On The High Castle" where the former Minister of Culture of Japan travels universes temporarily, revealing a drawer with banned books. Amongst them, Lolita. The old Minister represents an aged cultural interpretation of a nation (not exactly Japan, but what is perceived to be the form of Imperial Japan if it has won WWII). After seeing it, the character is called out by his son, before quickly returning back to the war universe.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict. And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace. > partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict Zero chance. The problem is China.
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      > Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries. In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc. Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment. And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China. > But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir. Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan. India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.
niemandhier 1y ago
This is probably the only real dangerous point at the moment. Neither side gains to win much from a conflict, but should India really tamper with the water supply I hope they consult their economists first. Otherwise Pakistan has little choice but instantly commit to a full war. The reason: A significant amount of the food produced in Pakistan directly depends on the water from the river Indus. Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest. That does not sound like much, BUT economically food is a commodity with low 'elasticity', meaning demand does not really go down with reduced supply. The result would therefore be a doubling of food prices. In a country where people have little dispensable income, that means wide spread famine. By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.
- Tade0 1y ago
  Ukraine was desperate in 2014, when the Green Men arrived. In 2022 they were already anticipating an invasion, just didn't know when exactly it would occur. By 2020 they already had Bayraktars and Javelins: https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5-more-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-drones-in-2021 https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5...
- roncesvalles 1y ago
  >Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest. If that's the case then the die is already cast. Early in the conflict, India released too much water on the Chenub too early for the season as a way to punish Pakistan. The quantity of water was such that Pakistan had no choice but to let it run off to the sea. This now means that the upstream Indian reservoir will not have enough water to release during regular season where coordinated releases ensure farmers have an uninterrupted supply during certain critical time periods.
- sdsd 1y ago
  >By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage. The question is whether China would prop up Pakistan like NATO did for Ukraine

alephnerd 1y ago

Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT. The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harvest in Northeast Punjab. I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's "Military Inc" to understand the Pakistani army (she was forced into exile because of the book), and "Army and Nation" by Steven Wilkinson to understand India's army.

MichaelMoser123 1y ago
I hope you are right, however: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension Following the suspension of the treaty, India significantly reduced the flow of water through the Chenab River, which crosses into Pakistan. Pakistani authorities claimed a 90% drop in water supply and accused India of choking the river’s flow. India also initiated new hydroelectric projects and began constructing dams on the western rivers, actions previously constrained under the treaty.[125][126][127] Pakistan has reportedly warned that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers could be considered an act of war, and would attack India with nuclear weapons.[128]
- dmix 1y ago
  Just sounds like a good deterrence for Pakistan to not go to war to me. It really is in their hands right now. India just wants to save face over the terror attacks, a very easy game to play diplomatically. This missile strike was even smaller and more symbolic than even the Israeli Iranian ones. And those two are much more inclined (and far more prepared) to do something stupid.
  - arjun1296 1y ago
    [dead]
mayama 1y ago
> Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT. India could build water channel, in style of China's South North water transfer project in less than half decade. Huge dams aren't really needed for just diversion, if India is really serious about it.

alganet 1y ago

Fury Road could be seen as a reverse adaptation sequel of "Lolita" though. The end of Lolita (old guy on a road, frustrated, goes off path) fits with the Furiosa taking a detour. The roles are reversed. The young girl leaves in triumph (opposed to: the old guy leaves in frustration) and the old guy goes after her (opposed to: the young girl doesn't care about him leaving). It could be just the skeleton of the story though. Water is unobtanium of their scenic universe. In that movie perspective, it's related to healthy reproduction (healthy babies!), most likely cultural and not genetic. As any work of art, it is subject to many interpretations. Not everything is a cue. But some cues exist in fact. Contrary to the meme swarm, you can't turn those ideas so quickly into what you want, otherwise it fails to connect to a sense of cultural continuity.

alganet 1y ago
If you saw the cultural continuity, you can them jump to "Man On The High Castle" where the former Minister of Culture of Japan travels universes temporarily, revealing a drawer with banned books. Amongst them, Lolita. The old Minister represents an aged cultural interpretation of a nation (not exactly Japan, but what is perceived to be the form of Imperial Japan if it has won WWII). After seeing it, the character is called out by his son, before quickly returning back to the war universe.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

alephnerd 1y ago
Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict. And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace. > partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict Zero chance. The problem is China.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    > Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries. In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc. Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment. And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China. > But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir. Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan. India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.

niemandhier 1y ago

This is probably the only real dangerous point at the moment. Neither side gains to win much from a conflict, but should India really tamper with the water supply I hope they consult their economists first. Otherwise Pakistan has little choice but instantly commit to a full war. The reason: A significant amount of the food produced in Pakistan directly depends on the water from the river Indus. Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest. That does not sound like much, BUT economically food is a commodity with low 'elasticity', meaning demand does not really go down with reduced supply. The result would therefore be a doubling of food prices. In a country where people have little dispensable income, that means wide spread famine. By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.

Tade0 1y ago
Ukraine was desperate in 2014, when the Green Men arrived. In 2022 they were already anticipating an invasion, just didn't know when exactly it would occur. By 2020 they already had Bayraktars and Javelins: https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5-more-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-drones-in-2021 https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5...
roncesvalles 1y ago
>Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest. If that's the case then the die is already cast. Early in the conflict, India released too much water on the Chenub too early for the season as a way to punish Pakistan. The quantity of water was such that Pakistan had no choice but to let it run off to the sea. This now means that the upstream Indian reservoir will not have enough water to release during regular season where coordinated releases ensure farmers have an uninterrupted supply during certain critical time periods.
sdsd 1y ago
>By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage. The question is whether China would prop up Pakistan like NATO did for Ukraine