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We are seeing an interesting limit in the food case though. We increased production and needed fewer farmers, but we now have so few farmers that most people h

We are seeing an interesting limit in the food case though. We increased production and needed fewer farmers, but we now have so few farmers that most people have very little idea of what food really is, where it comes from, or what it takes to run our food system. Higher productivity is good to a point, but eventually it risks becoming too fragile.

master_crab 2y ago
100%. In fact, this exact scenario is playing out in the cattle industry. Screwworm, a parasite that kills cattle in days is making a comeback. And we are less prepared for it this time because previously (the 1950s-1970s) we had a lot more labor in the industry to manually check each head of cattle. Bloomberg even called it out specifically. Ranchers also said the screwworm would be much deadlier if it were to return, because of a lack of labor. “We can’t fight it like we did in the ’60s, we can’t go out and rope every head of cattle and put a smear on every open wound,” Schumann said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-02/deadly-screwworm-parasite-s-comeback-threatens-texas-cattle-us-beef-supply?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-02/deadly-sc...
- senordevnyc 2y ago
  This sounds like the kind of labor problem that could quickly be solved by hiring more people. So really the worst case here is that beef will cost a little more for a little while. Hardly an existential threat.
  - _heimdall 2y ago
    Who will they hire though? Cattle operations are often in very rural areas, and we are putting up huge blockers for immigrants and migrant workers.
    - chii 2y ago
      you're conflating a political issue with a problem having zero possible solutions. A stroke of the pen will fix any and all political issues, if/when the political desire comes about. Vs a problem with no solution - no pen will fix any of it, regardless of political will.
      - _heimdall 2y ago
        Its not just a problem needing a signature. We have the policies we have today because a lot of people want them, or at least agree with the general direction. If the right person signs a change that magically fixes a labor shortage in a rural area we're right back to where we were, and much of the public would be up in arms about it. (This doesn't actually reflect my opinion on immigration laws to be clear, just my view on where we are today in the US)
        senordevnyc 2y ago
        If beef doubles or triples in price, the political incentives will change rapidly. I’m not saying this parasite isn’t a potential problem, but it’s not existential by any stretch. There are a thousand more intractable and consequential problems facing us right now.
safety1st 2y ago
This doesn't sound like an accurate description of US agriculture. Just off the top of my head * The US is not producing enough food - it's now a net food importer * The increasing problems we are seeing in the food supply chain are usually tied to producers cutting costs and padding margins Matt Stoller has gone into this at length - https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/is-america-losing-the-ability-to https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/is-america-losing-the-abi... So I mean it could depend on your definition of productivity, if anything that increases shareholder returns at the expense of a good product or robust supply chain is considered more "productivity," sure. Just as monopolies are the most "productive" businesses ever for their shareholders, but generally awful for everyone else, and are not what most people would think of as productive. The human definition of productivity is - less inputs producing more and better outputs. The cartel doublespeak definition is - the product got worse and the margins improved, which seems to describe US Big Ag at present
- _heimdall 2y ago
  At least in US agriculture, when they speak of productivity they generally refer to pounds per acre for crops. For livestock it's a bit less clear, they sometimes refer to pounds of feed to final live weight. You generally have to schedule a slaughter day months out and you estimate the final weight, you don't get paid as well if you are too far off the weight in either direction. Its less common generally, but in the cattle industry I've heard the accuracy of hitting that targets talked about as productivity. I agree with you on the double speak though, really I think its just a lack of the public really understanding the meaning given to "productive" in the industry though. The industry doesn't hide what it means by the word, most just don't care about any version of productive that measures things like nutrient value, sustainability, soil health, animal welfare, etc.
- Retric 2y ago
  In case you are concerned that’s wildly misleading. The US exports lots of cheap food and imports expensive foods like wine, beer, high end cheese, candies. In terms of calories / nutrition the US is a huge net food exporter but we like our luxury chocolates etc. American companies love to setup cheap factories overseas even if they use US corn syrup to make a beverage the trade balance is based on corn syrup not the value of the manufactured soda. Meanwhile in the other direction we’re importing cans of soda manufactured in other countries.

master_crab 2y ago

100%. In fact, this exact scenario is playing out in the cattle industry. Screwworm, a parasite that kills cattle in days is making a comeback. And we are less prepared for it this time because previously (the 1950s-1970s) we had a lot more labor in the industry to manually check each head of cattle. Bloomberg even called it out specifically. Ranchers also said the screwworm would be much deadlier if it were to return, because of a lack of labor. “We can’t fight it like we did in the ’60s, we can’t go out and rope every head of cattle and put a smear on every open wound,” Schumann said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-02/deadly-screwworm-parasite-s-comeback-threatens-texas-cattle-us-beef-supply?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-02/deadly-sc...

senordevnyc 2y ago
This sounds like the kind of labor problem that could quickly be solved by hiring more people. So really the worst case here is that beef will cost a little more for a little while. Hardly an existential threat.
- _heimdall 2y ago
  Who will they hire though? Cattle operations are often in very rural areas, and we are putting up huge blockers for immigrants and migrant workers.
  - chii 2y ago
    you're conflating a political issue with a problem having zero possible solutions. A stroke of the pen will fix any and all political issues, if/when the political desire comes about. Vs a problem with no solution - no pen will fix any of it, regardless of political will.
    - _heimdall 2y ago
      Its not just a problem needing a signature. We have the policies we have today because a lot of people want them, or at least agree with the general direction. If the right person signs a change that magically fixes a labor shortage in a rural area we're right back to where we were, and much of the public would be up in arms about it. (This doesn't actually reflect my opinion on immigration laws to be clear, just my view on where we are today in the US)
      - senordevnyc 2y ago
        If beef doubles or triples in price, the political incentives will change rapidly. I’m not saying this parasite isn’t a potential problem, but it’s not existential by any stretch. There are a thousand more intractable and consequential problems facing us right now.

safety1st 2y ago

This doesn't sound like an accurate description of US agriculture. Just off the top of my head * The US is not producing enough food - it's now a net food importer * The increasing problems we are seeing in the food supply chain are usually tied to producers cutting costs and padding margins Matt Stoller has gone into this at length - https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/is-america-losing-the-ability-to https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/is-america-losing-the-abi... So I mean it could depend on your definition of productivity, if anything that increases shareholder returns at the expense of a good product or robust supply chain is considered more "productivity," sure. Just as monopolies are the most "productive" businesses ever for their shareholders, but generally awful for everyone else, and are not what most people would think of as productive. The human definition of productivity is - less inputs producing more and better outputs. The cartel doublespeak definition is - the product got worse and the margins improved, which seems to describe US Big Ag at present

_heimdall 2y ago
At least in US agriculture, when they speak of productivity they generally refer to pounds per acre for crops. For livestock it's a bit less clear, they sometimes refer to pounds of feed to final live weight. You generally have to schedule a slaughter day months out and you estimate the final weight, you don't get paid as well if you are too far off the weight in either direction. Its less common generally, but in the cattle industry I've heard the accuracy of hitting that targets talked about as productivity. I agree with you on the double speak though, really I think its just a lack of the public really understanding the meaning given to "productive" in the industry though. The industry doesn't hide what it means by the word, most just don't care about any version of productive that measures things like nutrient value, sustainability, soil health, animal welfare, etc.
Retric 2y ago
In case you are concerned that’s wildly misleading. The US exports lots of cheap food and imports expensive foods like wine, beer, high end cheese, candies. In terms of calories / nutrition the US is a huge net food exporter but we like our luxury chocolates etc. American companies love to setup cheap factories overseas even if they use US corn syrup to make a beverage the trade balance is based on corn syrup not the value of the manufactured soda. Meanwhile in the other direction we’re importing cans of soda manufactured in other countries.