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The problem is that Waymos can't replace cars (or even Ubers!) since they depend on human oversight and problem-solving. Even at a 20:1 ratio it is not feasible

The problem is that Waymos can't replace cars (or even Ubers!) since they depend on human oversight and problem-solving. Even at a 20:1 ratio it is not feasible for autonomous vehicles to employ 10m people to account for every American on the road.

Scaevolus 1y ago
The human oversight is mostly to tell off people breaking rules in the cars, not to fix the driving, and is quite easy to automate as they scale.
- AIPedant 1y ago
  That might be what human overseers are mostly doing minute-to-minute but it's not why it's necessary. The problem is AI simply does not have the real-world problem solving ability to handle all the minor inconveniences and surprises on the road.
josefritzishere 1y ago
This does not sound scalable.
worldsayshi 1y ago
Why can't it replace Ubers?
ttoinou 1y ago
Those people dont have to be americans though
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
IrishTechie 1y ago
Americans only spend 3% of their time driving, so it's maybe closer to 300k than 10m. Still not scalable at that though so the key will be driving that 20:1 up, which seems very possible given enough time.
- wffurr 1y ago
  If they keep pushing the hours between requests down like I saw on https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Estimated-number-of-full-time-remote-operators-needed-to-manage-Uber-global-vehicle_tbl5_346415337 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Estimated-number-of-full..., that might be feasible.
- petra 1y ago
  What determines whether 300k is scalable ?
xnx 1y ago
This is a very confusing position. Every Uber has full-time 1:1 "oversight". Waymo has a support team that only directs actions (not remote driving) when the vehicle requests. I would be very surprised if the number of Waymo rides that need any intervention at all is greater than 1 in 20.
- AIPedant 1y ago
  My point is you're not going to get much more than half[1] of those Uber drivers into a Waymo control center, even if they're facing unemployment. The workers have to come from somewhere. And it has to be somewhat regular hours, surge oversight doesn't make sense. [1] Edit - I meant 5% not half, I was on the train and very frustrated with these comments. (not yours, though it seems bad faith to say "not remote driving" when I said "problem solving." The problem has always been the 1-5% of driving which truly requires sophisticated intelligence, that's why the oversight is there.) Every Lyft driver I've spoken to drives because a) they like driving b) they like choosing their own hours and c) they don't want a boss. Telling them to go into an office for an 8 hour shift with a manager is not gonna work, they will find something more appealing. It's a different kind of employee. (I would enjoy that line of work but I would hate to drive for Uber, way too stressful.)
  - xnx 1y ago
    I don't think Waymo needs a significant amount of vehicle support staff now, and will need even less (per vehicle) in the future. The ratio will probably be something like the number of elevator repair people to number of unattended elevators operating smoothly. I emphasized that Waymo staff does not drive vehicles remotely, because this persists as a common misconception.
bluGill 1y ago
How does oversight handle issue. They are not remote driving, but what are they doing. The more important question is can the car have me (who is already inside it) tell it what to do?
- AIPedant 1y ago
  Waymo doesn't say very much, but other self-driving services have been more open. It is things like "the fire truck is at a weird angle and the car didn't know what to do, draw a path where it pulls slightly into an oncoming lane so it can get around." A lot of common sense stuff which is far beyond the reach of AI in 2025.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
floxy 1y ago
Where does the 20:1 stat come from? Does anyone know how may human interventions Waymo has per trip or per mile? How much human time is needed per intervention? And are the intervention rate and human time increasing or decreasing over time?

Scaevolus 1y ago

The human oversight is mostly to tell off people breaking rules in the cars, not to fix the driving, and is quite easy to automate as they scale.

AIPedant 1y ago
That might be what human overseers are mostly doing minute-to-minute but it's not why it's necessary. The problem is AI simply does not have the real-world problem solving ability to handle all the minor inconveniences and surprises on the road.

josefritzishere 1y ago

This does not sound scalable.

worldsayshi 1y ago

Why can't it replace Ubers?

ttoinou 1y ago

Those people dont have to be americans though

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

IrishTechie 1y ago

Americans only spend 3% of their time driving, so it's maybe closer to 300k than 10m. Still not scalable at that though so the key will be driving that 20:1 up, which seems very possible given enough time.

wffurr 1y ago
If they keep pushing the hours between requests down like I saw on https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Estimated-number-of-full-time-remote-operators-needed-to-manage-Uber-global-vehicle_tbl5_346415337 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Estimated-number-of-full..., that might be feasible.
petra 1y ago
What determines whether 300k is scalable ?

xnx 1y ago

This is a very confusing position. Every Uber has full-time 1:1 "oversight". Waymo has a support team that only directs actions (not remote driving) when the vehicle requests. I would be very surprised if the number of Waymo rides that need any intervention at all is greater than 1 in 20.

AIPedant 1y ago
My point is you're not going to get much more than half[1] of those Uber drivers into a Waymo control center, even if they're facing unemployment. The workers have to come from somewhere. And it has to be somewhat regular hours, surge oversight doesn't make sense. [1] Edit - I meant 5% not half, I was on the train and very frustrated with these comments. (not yours, though it seems bad faith to say "not remote driving" when I said "problem solving." The problem has always been the 1-5% of driving which truly requires sophisticated intelligence, that's why the oversight is there.) Every Lyft driver I've spoken to drives because a) they like driving b) they like choosing their own hours and c) they don't want a boss. Telling them to go into an office for an 8 hour shift with a manager is not gonna work, they will find something more appealing. It's a different kind of employee. (I would enjoy that line of work but I would hate to drive for Uber, way too stressful.)
- xnx 1y ago
  I don't think Waymo needs a significant amount of vehicle support staff now, and will need even less (per vehicle) in the future. The ratio will probably be something like the number of elevator repair people to number of unattended elevators operating smoothly. I emphasized that Waymo staff does not drive vehicles remotely, because this persists as a common misconception.

bluGill 1y ago

How does oversight handle issue. They are not remote driving, but what are they doing. The more important question is can the car have me (who is already inside it) tell it what to do?

AIPedant 1y ago
Waymo doesn't say very much, but other self-driving services have been more open. It is things like "the fire truck is at a weird angle and the car didn't know what to do, draw a path where it pulls slightly into an oncoming lane so it can get around." A lot of common sense stuff which is far beyond the reach of AI in 2025.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]

floxy 1y ago

Where does the 20:1 stat come from? Does anyone know how may human interventions Waymo has per trip or per mile? How much human time is needed per intervention? And are the intervention rate and human time increasing or decreasing over time?