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Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?
by globalise83 1y ago
Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?
- jhickok 1y agoYeah I was wondering if those models try to smooth those bumps.
- thfuran 1y agoI think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.
- crote 1y agoShips can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 1y agoContainer ships did get rerouted when that ship got stuck in the Suez Canal.
- hnaccount_rng 1y agoBut that’s “same port, different route” rerouting right? Here you would have to have “different port” rerouting (or some really weird weather making the Pacific intransitable”
- immibis 1y agoThere was an interview with a shipping manager somewhere (probably the 3-hour documentary by Gamers Nexus?). They said absolutely have been rerouting container ships in transit.
- ijidak 1y agoBut these ships are carrying containers for many different companies, right? If some companies want the goods now and other companies need to hold off, how does that work? Just whoever's shipping the most goods wins?
- JohnHaugeland 1y agoMost container ships aren’t enormous behemoths The more reasonable sized ones and the specialized ones (especially the car ones) often service a single buyer at a time
- toast0 1y agoCruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility. Some of the tariff increases are so high that they effectively spoil the cargo; there's no point in bringing it through customs at those prices, and it typically won't make sense to ship it back, and it may not be possible to ship it elsewhere from the port either, so it is most likely to be destroyed at the port. Delaying to see if tariffs go down may be worthwhile for enough of the cargo that it makes sense to slow the whole boat. Additionally, if demand for shipping is up, going faster allows for more supply, and if demand has slowed, going slower reduces supply.
- TylerE 1y agoThe tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.
- adgjlsfhk1 1y agoThat's easy enough to fake. How is US customs going to know when a German company's ship registered in the Philippines left a Chinese port?
- pixl97 1y agoThere is a pretty huge amount of ship and satellite tracking these days
- JumpCrisscross 1y agoYou’d just lie about which ship it was on.
- thfuran 1y agoWhile it's still in the shipping container with a GPS tracker on it?
- LeChuck 1y agoIt happens all the time but it’s more useful to think in terms of container flows getting rerouted. Container ships sail in fixed loops so have containers on board for multiple ports. It often happens that the order in which the ports are called (the rotation) is changed, or a particular port gets skipped all together. Reasons can be congestion, delays in previous ports, etc. etc. The line can choose to transship the cargo, so pick it up with a second ship to carry it to destination, have the customer pick it up in the new location (possibly with a rebate) or truck/rail it to the final destination themselves.