3 ms·

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not p

by jmyeet 2y ago

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by existing strategies to avoid China tariffs eg selling through Vietnam. Certain businesses will be hit hard. And that's really the biggest problem: cascading effects leading to an inevitable recession. Already, truckers who ship goods from ports are sitting around idle. We've cut tens of thousands from the government. More layoffs are to come.

jghn 2y ago
I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive. As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's supplies, electronics, etc. Sure, I'll buy them once in a while but not with any regularity. My understanding is that the classic paper products famous from COVID shortages are made in the US. So with that in mind what you say is 100% true, at least for me. But I'm not so sure. Who makes the containers that my local milk is put into? Who makes the cans that my canned goods are using? What meta-products are being consumed by the local industries, such as the ones making my TP? I have a feeling the answer is scarier than it'd seem on the surface. But I don't know.
- Teever 2y ago
  Where do the farmers that grow your food get their fertilizer and fuel from? Or the electronics and hydraulics in their tractors?
  - jghn 2y ago
    That's exactly my point. In other words, the threat model people should be worrying about isn't "bare shelves due to no goods from China to stock them" but rather "bare shelves because the entities who make the goods to stock them are missing critical components". And that's much harder for someone to predict what impact it'll have. I imagine that my daily life is very skewed away from direct impact from a Chinese embargo relative to other US citizens. And even still, I'm pretty sure it's going to be a problem.
    - TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
      Daily life is very skewed away from understanding how everything works. Supply chains, power grids, the Internet, large-scale farming - these are all complete mysteries to most people. They see the results but they have no idea how the sausage is made. (Or shipped.) It's one reason why this is happening at all. People not only don't know what makes a lightbulb turn on, they can't imagine the complexity of a power grid and how it's stabilised. They don't have the first idea how a phone works, or how much science, engineering, and fundamental research went into making it work. When they don't know any of this, they can't imagine any of it having a serious problem.
  - nradov 2y ago
    Most fertilizer and fuel used in US agriculture is domestically produced. We do import some fertilizer from China. For fertilizers manufactured using natural gas as a feed stock, the US is well positioned to expand production because we have cheaper and more abundant supplies.
- FollowingTheDao 2y ago
  If people can’t buy Chinese tomatoes, what kind of tomatoes do you think they’re going to buy m? the same ones that you do! That means the prices of your tomatoes are going to go up! No one is going to be immune from these pricing increases from the tariffs.
  - parineum 2y ago
    Where do I buy Chinese tomatoes?
    - nartho 2y ago
      My best guess would be China
  - jghn 2y ago
    You're largely making the point I was raising. For your specific example though, I'm not so sure. As a counterexample, I buy my eggs direct from a local farm, not in a store. Neither the ease of availability nor the price of the eggs I buy have changed one iota over the last several months. And yet I see local friends posting pictures of empty egg shelves here and there on Facebook. My takeaway has been that the average person has no idea they can buy goods outside of a grocery store. So back to your point, I buy most of my tomatoes direct from local farmers. Unless people start buying from *them* it is fine. HOWEVER, if those local farmers can't get parts for their farm equipment or something like that, I'm just as screwed.
    - andsoitis 2y ago
      > My takeaway has been that the average person has no idea they can buy goods outside of a grocery store. I’m sorry, but most people live in cities or towns with their only reasonable access to food being via stores. It is one of the wonderful things that civilization has produced and I’m here for it.
      - jghn 2y ago
        I live in a city. Yet what I said is true.
SoftTalker 2y ago
Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.
- jmyeet 2y ago
  China is holding pretty much all the cards here. First, it has a command economy. It's much more equipped to handle this in keeping factories afloat and people employed and housed. Second, the US is ~15% of China's exports and a lot of those exports will continue even with tariffs. Some by diversified supply chains (eg "laundering" Chinese made goods through Vietnam) or the Chinese goods are so low cost that the tariffs will be paid (eg a milk carton represents a small percentage of the cost of a carton of milk). Third, the US will feel the inflationary effects. China will not. Fourth, if China needs to raise funds they can and will sell US treasuries, spiking yields, hitting the ability of the US to issue further debt as well as borrowing costs for homeowners and businesses. Lastly, the rest of the world is on China's side. This whole tariff fiasco may be the largest self-own in American history. Additionally, it's undoing generations of American soft power globally.
  - dgfitz 2y ago
    My only two thoughts there are, China needs to fill that 15% gap, and I don’t know where they’ll do it. China also doesn’t want to sell too many treasuries least it upset their own financial stability in terms of purchasing power for their own citizens. The economic outlook in China isn’t great right now. The US and China are playing a game a chicken, not sure who blinks first.
    - kergonath 2y ago
      That 15% is not going to go away overnight. Some of won’t be sent to the US will be sold to the rest of the world instead. Possibly at a discount, so it is not ideal from the point of view of the Chinese government, but they are still well equipped to weather a temporary dip of 7% in their foreign trade. Nobody said that it would be painless for China. Just that 1- it will be less painful for China than the US 2- China is more resilient against this particular kind of stress because they have a command economy and have more control on the population. If the US blinks and caves, it does not matter whether China got a scratch, it’s still going to win the war. And Covid taught us that something would need to be quite dire for China to blink. Also, it got lost in the noise, but right now there is still a blanket 10% tariff on anything that enters the US, and presumably these 10% can turn to much more when Trumps feels like it. It’s not the US against China, it’s the US against the world.
parineum 2y ago
I haven't seen anyone saying that there's going to be no food. All reporting I've seen is that Walmart/Target shelves are going to be empty because of the glut of consumer goods they sell that are manufacture in China, ie, clothing, toys, electronics, etc.
- consp 2y ago
  Isn't most clothing made all over asia? As in: some brands will be affected and others will not?
  - parineum 2y ago
    That's certainly true.
andsoitis 2y ago
Consider that even for food that is produced locally, there are inputs (tin for cans, electricity, etc.) that is being negatively impacted by the tariff circus, unnecessarily.
gosub100 2y ago
I'd be fine if cheaply made plastic junk is gone from the shelves. Where are the environmentalists now? The ones who warned us to stop overconsuming? Their tribe conflicts with Trump so their refrain goes mute until a more convenient time.
adamc 2y ago
I buy dish soap on a regular basis. Not sure where the soap is produced, but I would guess the bottles might be from China -- a lot of packaging is. Sure, there are some US companies that make bottles, but can they expand their capacity? Probably not quickly. I think there will be a lot of unintuitive effects from things like packaging.

by jmyeet 2y ago

jghn 2y ago

I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive. As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's supplies, electronics, etc. Sure, I'll buy them once in a while but not with any regularity. My understanding is that the classic paper products famous from COVID shortages are made in the US. So with that in mind what you say is 100% true, at least for me. But I'm not so sure. Who makes the containers that my local milk is put into? Who makes the cans that my canned goods are using? What meta-products are being consumed by the local industries, such as the ones making my TP? I have a feeling the answer is scarier than it'd seem on the surface. But I don't know.

Teever 2y ago
Where do the farmers that grow your food get their fertilizer and fuel from? Or the electronics and hydraulics in their tractors?
- jghn 2y ago
  That's exactly my point. In other words, the threat model people should be worrying about isn't "bare shelves due to no goods from China to stock them" but rather "bare shelves because the entities who make the goods to stock them are missing critical components". And that's much harder for someone to predict what impact it'll have. I imagine that my daily life is very skewed away from direct impact from a Chinese embargo relative to other US citizens. And even still, I'm pretty sure it's going to be a problem.
  - TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
    Daily life is very skewed away from understanding how everything works. Supply chains, power grids, the Internet, large-scale farming - these are all complete mysteries to most people. They see the results but they have no idea how the sausage is made. (Or shipped.) It's one reason why this is happening at all. People not only don't know what makes a lightbulb turn on, they can't imagine the complexity of a power grid and how it's stabilised. They don't have the first idea how a phone works, or how much science, engineering, and fundamental research went into making it work. When they don't know any of this, they can't imagine any of it having a serious problem.
- nradov 2y ago
  Most fertilizer and fuel used in US agriculture is domestically produced. We do import some fertilizer from China. For fertilizers manufactured using natural gas as a feed stock, the US is well positioned to expand production because we have cheaper and more abundant supplies.
FollowingTheDao 2y ago
If people can’t buy Chinese tomatoes, what kind of tomatoes do you think they’re going to buy m? the same ones that you do! That means the prices of your tomatoes are going to go up! No one is going to be immune from these pricing increases from the tariffs.
- parineum 2y ago
  Where do I buy Chinese tomatoes?
  - nartho 2y ago
    My best guess would be China
- jghn 2y ago
  You're largely making the point I was raising. For your specific example though, I'm not so sure. As a counterexample, I buy my eggs direct from a local farm, not in a store. Neither the ease of availability nor the price of the eggs I buy have changed one iota over the last several months. And yet I see local friends posting pictures of empty egg shelves here and there on Facebook. My takeaway has been that the average person has no idea they can buy goods outside of a grocery store. So back to your point, I buy most of my tomatoes direct from local farmers. Unless people start buying from *them* it is fine. HOWEVER, if those local farmers can't get parts for their farm equipment or something like that, I'm just as screwed.
  - andsoitis 2y ago
    > My takeaway has been that the average person has no idea they can buy goods outside of a grocery store. I’m sorry, but most people live in cities or towns with their only reasonable access to food being via stores. It is one of the wonderful things that civilization has produced and I’m here for it.
    - jghn 2y ago
      I live in a city. Yet what I said is true.

SoftTalker 2y ago

Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.

jmyeet 2y ago
China is holding pretty much all the cards here. First, it has a command economy. It's much more equipped to handle this in keeping factories afloat and people employed and housed. Second, the US is ~15% of China's exports and a lot of those exports will continue even with tariffs. Some by diversified supply chains (eg "laundering" Chinese made goods through Vietnam) or the Chinese goods are so low cost that the tariffs will be paid (eg a milk carton represents a small percentage of the cost of a carton of milk). Third, the US will feel the inflationary effects. China will not. Fourth, if China needs to raise funds they can and will sell US treasuries, spiking yields, hitting the ability of the US to issue further debt as well as borrowing costs for homeowners and businesses. Lastly, the rest of the world is on China's side. This whole tariff fiasco may be the largest self-own in American history. Additionally, it's undoing generations of American soft power globally.
- dgfitz 2y ago
  My only two thoughts there are, China needs to fill that 15% gap, and I don’t know where they’ll do it. China also doesn’t want to sell too many treasuries least it upset their own financial stability in terms of purchasing power for their own citizens. The economic outlook in China isn’t great right now. The US and China are playing a game a chicken, not sure who blinks first.
  - kergonath 2y ago
    That 15% is not going to go away overnight. Some of won’t be sent to the US will be sold to the rest of the world instead. Possibly at a discount, so it is not ideal from the point of view of the Chinese government, but they are still well equipped to weather a temporary dip of 7% in their foreign trade. Nobody said that it would be painless for China. Just that 1- it will be less painful for China than the US 2- China is more resilient against this particular kind of stress because they have a command economy and have more control on the population. If the US blinks and caves, it does not matter whether China got a scratch, it’s still going to win the war. And Covid taught us that something would need to be quite dire for China to blink. Also, it got lost in the noise, but right now there is still a blanket 10% tariff on anything that enters the US, and presumably these 10% can turn to much more when Trumps feels like it. It’s not the US against China, it’s the US against the world.

parineum 2y ago

I haven't seen anyone saying that there's going to be no food. All reporting I've seen is that Walmart/Target shelves are going to be empty because of the glut of consumer goods they sell that are manufacture in China, ie, clothing, toys, electronics, etc.

consp 2y ago
Isn't most clothing made all over asia? As in: some brands will be affected and others will not?
- parineum 2y ago
  That's certainly true.

andsoitis 2y ago

Consider that even for food that is produced locally, there are inputs (tin for cans, electricity, etc.) that is being negatively impacted by the tariff circus, unnecessarily.

gosub100 2y ago

I'd be fine if cheaply made plastic junk is gone from the shelves. Where are the environmentalists now? The ones who warned us to stop overconsuming? Their tribe conflicts with Trump so their refrain goes mute until a more convenient time.

adamc 2y ago

I buy dish soap on a regular basis. Not sure where the soap is produced, but I would guess the bottles might be from China -- a lot of packaging is. Sure, there are some US companies that make bottles, but can they expand their capacity? Probably not quickly. I think there will be a lot of unintuitive effects from things like packaging.