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> do you commit millions to building something that doesn't pay off until 5 years from now? This is exactly the kind of short-termism that got us to where we a
by _1tem 1y ago
> do you commit millions to building something that doesn't pay off until 5 years from now?
This is exactly the kind of short-termism that got us to where we are now. Why is it so hard to think on a 5-10 year timeline? This is country-level ADHD. Anything worth building requires long term investments. People in the past used to spend their life building cathedrals that they knew would never be finished in their lifetime, and now you're questioning whether it's worth investing in something that has an expected ROI in 5 years!
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- hypeatei 1y agoThis isn't long term thinking industrial policy. Flip flopping and using ChatGPT to steer tariff policy isn't looking ahead. Pure delusion. Trump has control of all branches yet isn't passing any legislation. All he's doing is introducing uncertainty.
- zorked 1y agoYou are free to spend billions betting in an unstable government then. Show them how it's done! Oh, you meant other people's money.
- nemomarx 1y agoBut what if 2 years in all the tariffs are cancelled and you go bankrupt? if you want people to think long term you need long term stable policies that won't change the next time someone else sits in the oval office or Congress changes hands. you need to commit to a strategy.
- _1tem 1y ago[flagged]
- senordevnyc 1y agoBuilding a factory for billions isn't the same thing as opening a restaurant.
- bumby 1y agoI think this may be missing the difference in differential risk. If I live in a place with constant uncertainty, taking one uncertain bet over another makes little difference. If I instead live in a place of relative historic stability with (real or perceived) short-term uncertainty, it makes a lot of sense to wait until the relative stability has returned.
- _1tem 1y agoEntrepreneurs in Ukraine have other options. Instead of building a restaurant or factory they could sit on their money for a few years until the war ends.
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- bumby 1y agoAnd do you think that is an equal differential in risk compared to someone in the US doing the same? I can think of at least a handful of reasons why that may not be the case.
- georgeecollins 1y ago>> Not willing to take risks to build something great. 8 of the top 10 companies in the world we're started in America in the last fifty years. If you were try to guess where the next world beating companies are going to come from I am sure some will come from China, Europe, South America, but still most from the US. The US still puts the world to shame in putting capital at risk on new ideas.
- ActorNightly 1y agoIf you had a sane administration that actually had anything resembling of a plan to bring back US manufacturing, then it would be a different story. Betting on insanity is not "courageous risk taking"
- Sparkle-san 1y agoThe ROI isn't 5 years, it's more that it won't generate any returns for 5 years and those returns might not pan out depending on policy change. If you build an American factory and right as it's getting up and running, the next administration rolls back all tariffs, you're left with massive debt and everyone undercutting your prices.
- _1tem 1y agoRisk. It's called "doing business". Anyone who has built anything great took risks because they had a vision and believed in it. They weren't "rent seeking" and looking for guaranteed returns.
- senordevnyc 1y agoShow 'em how it's done then.
- sharemywin 1y agothe upside has to justify the risk or it isn't a good investment.
- BizarroLand 1y agoThere's a mousetrap down that hall and I don't smell any cheese
- Remnant44 1y agoYou're missing half the equation. It's Risk vs Reward. Anyone who built something great took huge risks, for a huge return. There is no return here. At best, you've sunk a ton of capital into a low-profit business that is propped up only by government subsidy.
- sharemywin 1y agoprobably why congress should be putting tariffs into laws.
- mcphage 1y ago> Why is it so hard to think on a 5-10 year timeline? Because the tariff plans have changed every few days. If the tariffs were stable over 5-10 years, businesses would adapt. > This is country-level ADHD. Yes, these tariffs are.
- Lendal 1y agoEven if all those factories were built instantaneously, it still results in made-in-usa prices for all Americans for everything coming out of those factories, along with protective tariffs forever. A factory can't be constructed or operate going forward in the US for the same price as in China. The moment any president drops tariffs, all those factories will shut down immediately.
- UncleMeat 1y agoWhat bank is going to finance a loan for a new factory whose profitability is predicated on this trade policy remaining stable for the next decade? Even if you as a business owner have appetite for this risk, the bank won't.