4 ms·

Objectively, the Q1 numbers probably actually reflect the Q3/Q4 2024 state of things, just like the Q2/Q3 numbers will more represent the actual Q1 2025 numbers

by dgfitz 1y ago

Objectively, the Q1 numbers probably actually reflect the Q3/Q4 2024 state of things, just like the Q2/Q3 numbers will more represent the actual Q1 2025 numbers. It feels like this was the natural progression of stuffing trillions of dollars into the economy, along with ZIRP, and the free ride has ended. Tariffs will magnify the problem. The whole bullwhip effect never occurred, prices never returned to pre-covid levels, as everyone claimed they would. So now we have years of stacking inflation that happened because of bloating the money supply, then ZIRP goes away, throw the tariff fears/uncertainty on top, and here we are. I have very little to no faith this administration will help the situation. Playing a game of chicken with the other global superpower is a losing proposition. This problem has been years in the making, big ships don't turn on a dime.

FollowingTheDao 1y ago
> big ships don't turn on a dime No, but Trump is trying to turn the US ship in a dime, and like this aircraft carrier, we are about to drop a ton of money into the ocean... https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million-fighter-jet-sea-fell-aircraft-carrier-rcna203444 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million...
- NikkiA 1y ago
  Ironically, replacing multi-million dollar aircraft that 'fell into the sea' is part of what keeps the american GDP so high.
  - nxm 1y ago
    and keeps world trade safe and economy rolling, without the world paying for it.
Retric 1y ago
The lag you describe assumes the underlying conditions haven’t changed. Taken to the absolute extreme, a nuclear war doesn’t care about the last quarter as even a giant ship halts when running into an island. Trump’s been unusually active, so you’d expect to see direct impact in Q1 numbers.
- dgfitz 1y ago
  Objectively, it hasn't. The market went nuts right after the election, and tariff day was less than a month ago. I don't have any fait in the current economic policy, but the Q1 numbers don't reflect Q1 as much as they do '24 Q3/Q4.
  - Retric 1y ago
    You’re assuming that rather than looking at the facts. > tariff day was less than a month ago. Even desiring the current economic policy doesn’t mean uncertainty is beneficial. My mother for example was confused about when the tariffs took effect and therefore delayed a major purchase. The economy is simply the aggregate of many such choices.
    - dgfitz 1y ago
      I hear you, and that's a fair point. I just can't reconcile how trillions of dollars came into the economy and over the past few years there were mostly massive layoffs, poor-to-mediocre hiring, stagnant wages, and massive inflation. Where is all that money? I really think this is a huge elephant in the room that seems to be ignored.
      - Retric 1y ago
        To get consistent inflation you need to consistently create money. The inflation rate fell all the way down to 3% at the end of 2024. All that created money had already been sucked up by prior inflation and current higher prices. The velocity of money is informative here, basically a dollar can only be part of so many transactions over a year. If rent is 1000$ and you get paid 4 days before rent is due you need to set aside 1000$. Bump that by 30% and now you need to set aside 1300$ and for those 4 days + however long it takes for the transaction to finish that extra 300$ isn’t part of the economy. Bank lending is a multiplier, but that runs into similar issues.
        fuzzfactor 1y ago
tokai 1y ago
A torpedo to the bow can sink a big ship in minutes though.
senordevnyc 1y ago
prices never returned to pre-covid levels, as everyone claimed they would No one who knows anything about economics or inflation claimed that prices would return to their pre-covid levels. However, inflation has gone way down from its peak.
- dgfitz 1y ago
  Didn't basically everything go up but wages? So we inflated the cost of things by what, 15% or more over the past few years, wages didn't follow. All the savings and free money people had are gone now, it took a while. I don't care if we blame the current economic policy, I don't like the current economic policy at all. I think the problem is much bigger than that. I still would like to know where all that money went. I can't figure that out.
  - arrrg 1y ago
    US post pandemic economic recovery has been astonishingly great measured against other major economies. Obviously (real) wages did take a hit like everywhere but have been recovering, too. My working theory is that noticeable inflations makes people go crazy and trumps anything else. Completely closes people off to rational thought and that’s what sunk Biden. Despite awesome economic recovery given the circumstances.
    - dgfitz 1y ago
      My working theory is that this is a gigantic misnomer: > US post pandemic economic recovery has been astonishingly great measured against other major economies.
  - dfxm12 1y ago
    You almost answered your own question. The price of things went up, and they went up along with profits. The money went back to the firms who raised prices. It's greedflation. https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2025/04/25/why-corporate-profits-have-rocketed-upward-since-the-covid-19-pandemic/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2025/04/25/why-corp...

by dgfitz 1y ago

FollowingTheDao 1y ago

> big ships don't turn on a dime No, but Trump is trying to turn the US ship in a dime, and like this aircraft carrier, we are about to drop a ton of money into the ocean... https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million-fighter-jet-sea-fell-aircraft-carrier-rcna203444 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million...

NikkiA 1y ago
Ironically, replacing multi-million dollar aircraft that 'fell into the sea' is part of what keeps the american GDP so high.
- nxm 1y ago
  and keeps world trade safe and economy rolling, without the world paying for it.

Retric 1y ago

The lag you describe assumes the underlying conditions haven’t changed. Taken to the absolute extreme, a nuclear war doesn’t care about the last quarter as even a giant ship halts when running into an island. Trump’s been unusually active, so you’d expect to see direct impact in Q1 numbers.

dgfitz 1y ago
Objectively, it hasn't. The market went nuts right after the election, and tariff day was less than a month ago. I don't have any fait in the current economic policy, but the Q1 numbers don't reflect Q1 as much as they do '24 Q3/Q4.
- Retric 1y ago
  You’re assuming that rather than looking at the facts. > tariff day was less than a month ago. Even desiring the current economic policy doesn’t mean uncertainty is beneficial. My mother for example was confused about when the tariffs took effect and therefore delayed a major purchase. The economy is simply the aggregate of many such choices.
  - dgfitz 1y ago
    I hear you, and that's a fair point. I just can't reconcile how trillions of dollars came into the economy and over the past few years there were mostly massive layoffs, poor-to-mediocre hiring, stagnant wages, and massive inflation. Where is all that money? I really think this is a huge elephant in the room that seems to be ignored.
    - Retric 1y ago
      To get consistent inflation you need to consistently create money. The inflation rate fell all the way down to 3% at the end of 2024. All that created money had already been sucked up by prior inflation and current higher prices. The velocity of money is informative here, basically a dollar can only be part of so many transactions over a year. If rent is 1000$ and you get paid 4 days before rent is due you need to set aside 1000$. Bump that by 30% and now you need to set aside 1300$ and for those 4 days + however long it takes for the transaction to finish that extra 300$ isn’t part of the economy. Bank lending is a multiplier, but that runs into similar issues.
      - fuzzfactor 1y ago

tokai 1y ago

A torpedo to the bow can sink a big ship in minutes though.

senordevnyc 1y ago

prices never returned to pre-covid levels, as everyone claimed they would No one who knows anything about economics or inflation claimed that prices would return to their pre-covid levels. However, inflation has gone way down from its peak.

dgfitz 1y ago
Didn't basically everything go up but wages? So we inflated the cost of things by what, 15% or more over the past few years, wages didn't follow. All the savings and free money people had are gone now, it took a while. I don't care if we blame the current economic policy, I don't like the current economic policy at all. I think the problem is much bigger than that. I still would like to know where all that money went. I can't figure that out.
- arrrg 1y ago
  US post pandemic economic recovery has been astonishingly great measured against other major economies. Obviously (real) wages did take a hit like everywhere but have been recovering, too. My working theory is that noticeable inflations makes people go crazy and trumps anything else. Completely closes people off to rational thought and that’s what sunk Biden. Despite awesome economic recovery given the circumstances.
  - dgfitz 1y ago
    My working theory is that this is a gigantic misnomer: > US post pandemic economic recovery has been astonishingly great measured against other major economies.
- dfxm12 1y ago
  You almost answered your own question. The price of things went up, and they went up along with profits. The money went back to the firms who raised prices. It's greedflation. https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2025/04/25/why-corporate-profits-have-rocketed-upward-since-the-covid-19-pandemic/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2025/04/25/why-corp...