4 ms·

Well its quite unexpected to see this big of a change within only a three months period. I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the me

Well its quite unexpected to see this big of a change within only a three months period. I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer.

wiremine 1y ago
> I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer. Just curious why you would think this? Markets react fairly quickly to major events...
- bonzini 1y ago
  So called "Liberation Day" and consequent mini-crash was on April 2, so this is just based on perception (of stupidity) rather than an anything real. No matter how well-grounded that perception is, the actual reaction to the tariffs is bound to be worse.
- Retr0id 1y ago
  Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. That said, GDP responded to the pandemic fairly promptly too.
  - dragonwriter 1y ago
    > Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. The GDP is the result of what markets (not the stock market, but actual markets for goods and services) do, if markets react quickly so does the GDP. And markets were reacting to tariff threats and other issues early in the term, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection rapidly turned from strongly positive to negative in February, IIRC.
    - Retr0id 1y ago
      They both influence each other, yes. But GDP is largely a measure of consumer spending in the present, whereas stock markets are more forward-looking. Consumers, for the most part, respond to prices in the present. Savvy consumers have been stocking up in advance of anticipated price increases, and the less-savvy aren't really changing their spending yet because of stock buffers etc.
dgfitz 1y ago
Objectively, the Q1 numbers probably actually reflect the Q3/Q4 2024 state of things, just like the Q2/Q3 numbers will more represent the actual Q1 2025 numbers. It feels like this was the natural progression of stuffing trillions of dollars into the economy, along with ZIRP, and the free ride has ended. Tariffs will magnify the problem. The whole bullwhip effect never occurred, prices never returned to pre-covid levels, as everyone claimed they would. So now we have years of stacking inflation that happened because of bloating the money supply, then ZIRP goes away, throw the tariff fears/uncertainty on top, and here we are. I have very little to no faith this administration will help the situation. Playing a game of chicken with the other global superpower is a losing proposition. This problem has been years in the making, big ships don't turn on a dime.
- FollowingTheDao 1y ago
  > big ships don't turn on a dime No, but Trump is trying to turn the US ship in a dime, and like this aircraft carrier, we are about to drop a ton of money into the ocean... https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million-fighter-jet-sea-fell-aircraft-carrier-rcna203444 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million...
  - NikkiA 1y ago
    Ironically, replacing multi-million dollar aircraft that 'fell into the sea' is part of what keeps the american GDP so high.
    - nxm 1y ago
      and keeps world trade safe and economy rolling, without the world paying for it.
- Retric 1y ago
  The lag you describe assumes the underlying conditions haven’t changed. Taken to the absolute extreme, a nuclear war doesn’t care about the last quarter as even a giant ship halts when running into an island. Trump’s been unusually active, so you’d expect to see direct impact in Q1 numbers.

Well its quite unexpected to see this big of a change within only a three months period. I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer.

wiremine 1y ago

> I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer. Just curious why you would think this? Markets react fairly quickly to major events...

bonzini 1y ago
So called "Liberation Day" and consequent mini-crash was on April 2, so this is just based on perception (of stupidity) rather than an anything real. No matter how well-grounded that perception is, the actual reaction to the tariffs is bound to be worse.
Retr0id 1y ago
Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. That said, GDP responded to the pandemic fairly promptly too.
- dragonwriter 1y ago
  > Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. The GDP is the result of what markets (not the stock market, but actual markets for goods and services) do, if markets react quickly so does the GDP. And markets were reacting to tariff threats and other issues early in the term, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection rapidly turned from strongly positive to negative in February, IIRC.
  - Retr0id 1y ago
    They both influence each other, yes. But GDP is largely a measure of consumer spending in the present, whereas stock markets are more forward-looking. Consumers, for the most part, respond to prices in the present. Savvy consumers have been stocking up in advance of anticipated price increases, and the less-savvy aren't really changing their spending yet because of stock buffers etc.

dgfitz 1y ago

Objectively, the Q1 numbers probably actually reflect the Q3/Q4 2024 state of things, just like the Q2/Q3 numbers will more represent the actual Q1 2025 numbers. It feels like this was the natural progression of stuffing trillions of dollars into the economy, along with ZIRP, and the free ride has ended. Tariffs will magnify the problem. The whole bullwhip effect never occurred, prices never returned to pre-covid levels, as everyone claimed they would. So now we have years of stacking inflation that happened because of bloating the money supply, then ZIRP goes away, throw the tariff fears/uncertainty on top, and here we are. I have very little to no faith this administration will help the situation. Playing a game of chicken with the other global superpower is a losing proposition. This problem has been years in the making, big ships don't turn on a dime.

FollowingTheDao 1y ago
> big ships don't turn on a dime No, but Trump is trying to turn the US ship in a dime, and like this aircraft carrier, we are about to drop a ton of money into the ocean... https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million-fighter-jet-sea-fell-aircraft-carrier-rcna203444 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-navy-lost-67-million...
- NikkiA 1y ago
  Ironically, replacing multi-million dollar aircraft that 'fell into the sea' is part of what keeps the american GDP so high.
  - nxm 1y ago
    and keeps world trade safe and economy rolling, without the world paying for it.
Retric 1y ago
The lag you describe assumes the underlying conditions haven’t changed. Taken to the absolute extreme, a nuclear war doesn’t care about the last quarter as even a giant ship halts when running into an island. Trump’s been unusually active, so you’d expect to see direct impact in Q1 numbers.