3 ms·

> Probably nigh-impossible for some OEMs. Impossible meaning the parts aren't yet manufactured in the US, or that they can't be for some reason?

matheusmoreira 1y ago
There's no doubt that they could be. Just not as cheaply.
- _heimdall 1y ago
  Access to raw materials may be a fundamental blocker there. I had seen stats putting China's control of certain rare earth minerals as high as 80% and products like lithium batteries as high as 97%. I don't know the industry well enough to validate that, but I couldn't find anything refuting or disproving those numbers either. If true, we very well may not be able to make them here if China were to cut off those resources long term.
  - lazide 1y ago
    These all have potential mines in the US. They’re currently shuttered however, because of cost, because China is cheaper and has been for a long time.
    - _heimdall 1y ago
      That will be a rude awakening for a lot of people if we have to start mining that heavily here. We were able to have our cake and eat it too as long as we could talk green while outsourcing our environmental damage due to mining overseas.
      - lazide 1y ago
        Yup. It’s already going to be a rude awakening once tariffs work their way out to retail prices.
  - wordofx 1y ago
    No one can do anything in the west because you can’t mine or process anything. Countries like China have no regulations preventing the processing of raw materials.
    - Attrecomet 1y ago
      Oh, you can, generally, it's just not fine to poison the whole region's water supply doing it, which less rich countries care less about, and which makes it expensive.
- Incipient 1y ago
  Once a skillset and supply chain is lost, manufacturing a specific item absolutely may not be possible "now". You'd need to rebuild a supply chain and import skilled workers to get it happening.
  - jajko 1y ago
    Goo luck importing external highly skilled immigrants into current super-hostile US environment to undermine their own countries. Proper patriots would even sabotage such effort. Sure you can massively overpay them, exacerbating the effect of massively rising prices for US domestic product.
- anonymousab 1y ago
  Though to be clear, "not as cheaply" can mean a difference of several orders of magnitude and many years of effort.
  - pca006132 1y ago
    It probably also means that companies will not do it: It seems impossible to keep the tariff this high for years, and Trump will only stay in office for a few years...
    - lazide 1y ago
      Trump has been replacing anyone who would realistically force him out with flunkies as his first order of business. No one is getting rid of him in a few years.
      - close04 1y ago
        His term ends in a few years. At that point he’s either replaced, maybe with the same kind of person (the US people have showed their hand with these elections), or he stays in place somehow. Are you hinting at the second scenario? Then we’ll get to see what US democracy is about, or if those people hoarding guns to fight an undemocratic or abusive government were just overcompensating, as it looks like today.
        seanmcdirmid 1y ago
        Trump’s term ends with a high probability of a Democrat being elected to clean up his mess, as happened in 2020 and 2008. He will almost certainly lose congress in the midterm unless he can somehow suspend the election (all bets are off if the constitution falls).
        lazide 1y ago
        It’s like none of you saw Jan 6th, or his pardoning of folks at all. It’s seriously bizarre.
Qwertious 1y ago
Whether some parts could be manufactured in the US is irrelevant, when you give 3 days' notice instead of 3 years. You simply can't build a factory in 3 days, let alone train up the required personnel and set up an entire local supply chain.

matheusmoreira 1y ago

There's no doubt that they could be. Just not as cheaply.

_heimdall 1y ago
Access to raw materials may be a fundamental blocker there. I had seen stats putting China's control of certain rare earth minerals as high as 80% and products like lithium batteries as high as 97%. I don't know the industry well enough to validate that, but I couldn't find anything refuting or disproving those numbers either. If true, we very well may not be able to make them here if China were to cut off those resources long term.
- lazide 1y ago
  These all have potential mines in the US. They’re currently shuttered however, because of cost, because China is cheaper and has been for a long time.
  - _heimdall 1y ago
    That will be a rude awakening for a lot of people if we have to start mining that heavily here. We were able to have our cake and eat it too as long as we could talk green while outsourcing our environmental damage due to mining overseas.
    - lazide 1y ago
      Yup. It’s already going to be a rude awakening once tariffs work their way out to retail prices.
- wordofx 1y ago
  No one can do anything in the west because you can’t mine or process anything. Countries like China have no regulations preventing the processing of raw materials.
  - Attrecomet 1y ago
    Oh, you can, generally, it's just not fine to poison the whole region's water supply doing it, which less rich countries care less about, and which makes it expensive.
Incipient 1y ago
Once a skillset and supply chain is lost, manufacturing a specific item absolutely may not be possible "now". You'd need to rebuild a supply chain and import skilled workers to get it happening.
- jajko 1y ago
  Goo luck importing external highly skilled immigrants into current super-hostile US environment to undermine their own countries. Proper patriots would even sabotage such effort. Sure you can massively overpay them, exacerbating the effect of massively rising prices for US domestic product.
anonymousab 1y ago
Though to be clear, "not as cheaply" can mean a difference of several orders of magnitude and many years of effort.
- pca006132 1y ago
  It probably also means that companies will not do it: It seems impossible to keep the tariff this high for years, and Trump will only stay in office for a few years...
  - lazide 1y ago
    Trump has been replacing anyone who would realistically force him out with flunkies as his first order of business. No one is getting rid of him in a few years.
    - close04 1y ago
      His term ends in a few years. At that point he’s either replaced, maybe with the same kind of person (the US people have showed their hand with these elections), or he stays in place somehow. Are you hinting at the second scenario? Then we’ll get to see what US democracy is about, or if those people hoarding guns to fight an undemocratic or abusive government were just overcompensating, as it looks like today.
      - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
        Trump’s term ends with a high probability of a Democrat being elected to clean up his mess, as happened in 2020 and 2008. He will almost certainly lose congress in the midterm unless he can somehow suspend the election (all bets are off if the constitution falls).
        lazide 1y ago
        It’s like none of you saw Jan 6th, or his pardoning of folks at all. It’s seriously bizarre.

Qwertious 1y ago

Whether some parts could be manufactured in the US is irrelevant, when you give 3 days' notice instead of 3 years. You simply can't build a factory in 3 days, let alone train up the required personnel and set up an entire local supply chain.