4 ms·

The world would be a lot better off if Tesla and Uber get smoked on this. Tesla's public testing of beta quality industrial control software and Uber's attempt

The world would be a lot better off if Tesla and Uber get smoked on this. Tesla's public testing of beta quality industrial control software and Uber's attempt to lilypad jump across the backs of financially unsophisticated drivers are contemptible. I'd be very glad to see neither strategy actually work in the end.

quickslowdown 2y ago
Hear hear
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
Isn't waymo already partnering with Uber on offering rideshares in different markets?
- sorcerer-mar 2y ago
  Sure. Can you describe what leverage Uber actually has in those partnerships? That's a deal of convenience for Waymo, trading a bit of margin for some velocity. It (or similar deals) are downright existential to Uber.
  - chipgap98 2y ago
    Uber is acting as an aggregator for all types of rides. Customers have the direct relationship with Uber. Unless Waymo completely runs away with autonomous driving then I think Uber has a lot of leverage.
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      It's been a few years and so far no one but waymo is offering public rides. If there are fast followers they need to launch soon.
    - wbl 2y ago
      Waymo already has an app.
    - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
      I would bet it takes literally one ride in a Waymo for 90%+ of users to be ready to download a different app to access that service again, if Waymo and Uber were to part ways. Uber is buying time, Waymo is buying velocity
      - chipgap98 2y ago
        I think it is likely that people order Waymo's through Uber in the future
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        That's exactly what we're talking about... that's already happening and probably will continue to happen for as long as it's convenient for Waymo. Margin will never accrue to Uber in that relationship because they have no leverage.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      Waymo has shown itself more than capable of going D2C [1]. It’s actually the one case where Google’s customer service beats the competition’s. Waymo customer service is still somewhat trash. But you need it so infrequently compared with Uber, and Uber and Lyft somehow manage to make Google look like a people company, that I find myself almost exclusively taking Waymo when I’m in a city where it is an option. (Via the Waymo app.) [1] https://x.com/aleximm/status/1867257473671082356 https://x.com/aleximm/status/1867257473671082356
      - scarface_74 2y ago
        Wow one whole city of tech bros? I was able to get an Uber in Manuel Antonio Costa Rica coming from an airport whose terminal is literally a hut (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport). There is a reason even taxi companies are now partnering with Uber in places like DC. I travel a lot between business (not as much now) and personally. I know I can land in any airport domestically and most airports internationally and can get a ride on Uber and with surge pricing someone will usually pick me up. It isn’t financially viable to have enough Waymo cars on the road that will be able to handle peak demand and just sit there during low demand.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > It isn’t financially viable to have enough Waymo cars on the road that will be able to handle peak demand and just sit there during low demand Sure. Waymo can absorb the usual base load. Uber and Lyft can be peakers. This is how it works in Phoenix, LA and Miami, cities one can’t dismiss as cities “of tech bros,” I assume, given during peak hours the wait time surges to 30+ minutes.
  - n_ary 2y ago
    Uber probably has legal framework of operation, ability to quickly obtain permits for autonomous testing, local political connections, special ability to gather roads, traffic, mapping data and overall support with rapid deployment. For waymo to get into a new location/country, establish their presence, navigate the political and regulatory landscape etc will take very long and many difficult hurdles.
    - delfinom 2y ago
      Waymo has papa Google, Google Maps already has location and traffic data in excess of Uber. They don't just randomly color traffic lines in Google maps.
    - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
      I doubt it. Uber is a 1000x more toxic brand to regulators than Waymo is. And I don't think Uber's maps mean anything to Waymo, though would be curious if someone else has direct insight into why they would.
  - scarface_74 2y ago
    Customers???
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  Its just an advertising relationship.
jayd16 2y ago
Pretty sure they already worked but its a nice sentiment.
- sorcerer-mar 2y ago
  When full self-driving actually goes mainstream, today's "it worked" will look pretty identical to not working at all. Granted, plenty of douchebags will have made their money and scrammed, but founders would prefer to emulate the biggest winners which is what matters. Nobody is out here emulating the business practices of John Studebaker though I'm sure he died plenty rich.
enahs-sf 2y ago
Tesla has minted a fortune on broken promises and vaporware. As someone who purchased FSD, would be glad to see them lose their shirts on this one.
- porphyra 2y ago
  As someone who also purchased FSD, I was able to drive hundreds of kilometers without any disengagements even though my car is an older HW3 with 12.6. I fully believe that with some Waymo-like conservative route planning and teleoperator backup, they will be able to achieve their robotaxi goals this year.
  - dyauspitr 2y ago
    Tesla is going nowhere without LiDAR.
    - porphyra 2y ago
      O3 can now play geoguessr better than master level human players. It can also beat master level Codeforces competitive programmers. I wouldn't discount the ability of AI to make sense of images far better than humans possibly could, all the while beating them at logical thinking, especially in a restricted domain like driving.
      - scarface_74 2y ago
        It also has the help of being able to do web searches and when o3 fails, it doesn’t kill people.
      - smt88 2y ago
        AI can't make cameras see in the dark. LIDAR produces light, so it doesn't matter if there isn't enough of it in a particular environment.
        porphyra 2y ago
tjbiddle 2y ago
Seems like a mixed bag. Parents, eldest sister and eldest all have Teslas and have done cross-country road trips with no problems, and use FSD very regularly. Brother, also the most cynical (and probably on HN), swears it's out to kill him and claims it nearly put him under a truck had he not taken over.
- sorcerer-mar 2y ago
  “A mixed bag” for a safety critical system is a synonym for “dangerous” or “dogshit”
  - tjbiddle 2y ago
    No it's not. I've heard both "This has done things more intelligently than me and prevented errors I would've made" and also "This made errors" Statistically, it's better than human drivers. But of course, if a machine makes an error - it's going to get more headlines.
    - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
      > Statistically, it's better than human drivers. Tesla has never published the data required to substantiate this claim. Next what you'll post is Tesla's press release where they look at accidents per mile with no segregation by driving type (city, freeway, age of car, weather conditions, etc) Then the next step after that should be for you to say, "huh, it actually is odd that they publish something that purports to show it's safer than human drivers, but they consistently decline to publish the data necessary to actually evaluate whether it's safer than human drivers." That should make you raise your eyebrows a bit.
      - tjbiddle 1y ago
        Fair play - I'll check.
whytaka 2y ago
I am now convinced that Uber/ride-sharing is responsible for the deterioration in our high-trust societies. Uber made it ok for regular drivers commit road violations with impunity.
- pavel_lishin 2y ago
  > Uber made it ok for regular drivers commit road violations with impunity. Can you say more about this?
  - whytaka 1y ago
    My conjecture is that when people started to see non-taxi branded cars just idle on streets without parking, forcing people to cross over lanes around them, it broke a social barrier.
- roywiggins 2y ago
  > Uber made it ok for regular drivers commit road violations with impunity. It was probably because cops stopped enforcing traffic laws during COVID and never started again: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/29/upshot/traffic-enforcement-dwindled.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/29/upshot/traffi...
- mensetmanusman 2y ago
  It was actually Vietnam according to historians.

quickslowdown 2y ago

Hear hear

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

Isn't waymo already partnering with Uber on offering rideshares in different markets?

sorcerer-mar 2y ago
Sure. Can you describe what leverage Uber actually has in those partnerships? That's a deal of convenience for Waymo, trading a bit of margin for some velocity. It (or similar deals) are downright existential to Uber.
- chipgap98 2y ago
  Uber is acting as an aggregator for all types of rides. Customers have the direct relationship with Uber. Unless Waymo completely runs away with autonomous driving then I think Uber has a lot of leverage.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    It's been a few years and so far no one but waymo is offering public rides. If there are fast followers they need to launch soon.
  - wbl 2y ago
    Waymo already has an app.
  - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
    I would bet it takes literally one ride in a Waymo for 90%+ of users to be ready to download a different app to access that service again, if Waymo and Uber were to part ways. Uber is buying time, Waymo is buying velocity
    - chipgap98 2y ago
      I think it is likely that people order Waymo's through Uber in the future
      - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        That's exactly what we're talking about... that's already happening and probably will continue to happen for as long as it's convenient for Waymo. Margin will never accrue to Uber in that relationship because they have no leverage.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    Waymo has shown itself more than capable of going D2C [1]. It’s actually the one case where Google’s customer service beats the competition’s. Waymo customer service is still somewhat trash. But you need it so infrequently compared with Uber, and Uber and Lyft somehow manage to make Google look like a people company, that I find myself almost exclusively taking Waymo when I’m in a city where it is an option. (Via the Waymo app.) [1] https://x.com/aleximm/status/1867257473671082356 https://x.com/aleximm/status/1867257473671082356
    - scarface_74 2y ago
      Wow one whole city of tech bros? I was able to get an Uber in Manuel Antonio Costa Rica coming from an airport whose terminal is literally a hut (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport). There is a reason even taxi companies are now partnering with Uber in places like DC. I travel a lot between business (not as much now) and personally. I know I can land in any airport domestically and most airports internationally and can get a ride on Uber and with surge pricing someone will usually pick me up. It isn’t financially viable to have enough Waymo cars on the road that will be able to handle peak demand and just sit there during low demand.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > It isn’t financially viable to have enough Waymo cars on the road that will be able to handle peak demand and just sit there during low demand Sure. Waymo can absorb the usual base load. Uber and Lyft can be peakers. This is how it works in Phoenix, LA and Miami, cities one can’t dismiss as cities “of tech bros,” I assume, given during peak hours the wait time surges to 30+ minutes.
- n_ary 2y ago
  Uber probably has legal framework of operation, ability to quickly obtain permits for autonomous testing, local political connections, special ability to gather roads, traffic, mapping data and overall support with rapid deployment. For waymo to get into a new location/country, establish their presence, navigate the political and regulatory landscape etc will take very long and many difficult hurdles.
  - delfinom 2y ago
    Waymo has papa Google, Google Maps already has location and traffic data in excess of Uber. They don't just randomly color traffic lines in Google maps.
  - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
    I doubt it. Uber is a 1000x more toxic brand to regulators than Waymo is. And I don't think Uber's maps mean anything to Waymo, though would be curious if someone else has direct insight into why they would.
- scarface_74 2y ago
  Customers???
throwaway48476 2y ago
Its just an advertising relationship.

jayd16 2y ago

Pretty sure they already worked but its a nice sentiment.

sorcerer-mar 2y ago
When full self-driving actually goes mainstream, today's "it worked" will look pretty identical to not working at all. Granted, plenty of douchebags will have made their money and scrammed, but founders would prefer to emulate the biggest winners which is what matters. Nobody is out here emulating the business practices of John Studebaker though I'm sure he died plenty rich.

enahs-sf 2y ago

Tesla has minted a fortune on broken promises and vaporware. As someone who purchased FSD, would be glad to see them lose their shirts on this one.

porphyra 2y ago
As someone who also purchased FSD, I was able to drive hundreds of kilometers without any disengagements even though my car is an older HW3 with 12.6. I fully believe that with some Waymo-like conservative route planning and teleoperator backup, they will be able to achieve their robotaxi goals this year.
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  Tesla is going nowhere without LiDAR.
  - porphyra 2y ago
    O3 can now play geoguessr better than master level human players. It can also beat master level Codeforces competitive programmers. I wouldn't discount the ability of AI to make sense of images far better than humans possibly could, all the while beating them at logical thinking, especially in a restricted domain like driving.
    - scarface_74 2y ago
      It also has the help of being able to do web searches and when o3 fails, it doesn’t kill people.
    - smt88 2y ago
      AI can't make cameras see in the dark. LIDAR produces light, so it doesn't matter if there isn't enough of it in a particular environment.
      - porphyra 2y ago

tjbiddle 2y ago

Seems like a mixed bag. Parents, eldest sister and eldest all have Teslas and have done cross-country road trips with no problems, and use FSD very regularly. Brother, also the most cynical (and probably on HN), swears it's out to kill him and claims it nearly put him under a truck had he not taken over.

sorcerer-mar 2y ago
“A mixed bag” for a safety critical system is a synonym for “dangerous” or “dogshit”
- tjbiddle 2y ago
  No it's not. I've heard both "This has done things more intelligently than me and prevented errors I would've made" and also "This made errors" Statistically, it's better than human drivers. But of course, if a machine makes an error - it's going to get more headlines.
  - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
    > Statistically, it's better than human drivers. Tesla has never published the data required to substantiate this claim. Next what you'll post is Tesla's press release where they look at accidents per mile with no segregation by driving type (city, freeway, age of car, weather conditions, etc) Then the next step after that should be for you to say, "huh, it actually is odd that they publish something that purports to show it's safer than human drivers, but they consistently decline to publish the data necessary to actually evaluate whether it's safer than human drivers." That should make you raise your eyebrows a bit.
    - tjbiddle 1y ago
      Fair play - I'll check.

whytaka 2y ago

I am now convinced that Uber/ride-sharing is responsible for the deterioration in our high-trust societies. Uber made it ok for regular drivers commit road violations with impunity.

pavel_lishin 2y ago
> Uber made it ok for regular drivers commit road violations with impunity. Can you say more about this?
- whytaka 1y ago
  My conjecture is that when people started to see non-taxi branded cars just idle on streets without parking, forcing people to cross over lanes around them, it broke a social barrier.
roywiggins 2y ago
> Uber made it ok for regular drivers commit road violations with impunity. It was probably because cops stopped enforcing traffic laws during COVID and never started again: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/29/upshot/traffic-enforcement-dwindled.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/29/upshot/traffi...
mensetmanusman 2y ago
It was actually Vietnam according to historians.