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A million monkeys with a million typewrites will statistically have one lucky monkey who creates an extremely successful product which also looks very dumb and

A million monkeys with a million typewrites will statistically have one lucky monkey who creates an extremely successful product which also looks very dumb and very unconvincing ("Srsly? You want to make money from random people hosting strangers in their own rooms?" Bang, AirBnB) The problem is selection bias. A startup is 3 monkeys tops, so the chances of that are appropriately low and if the product looks dumb and unconvincing, it probably is ("...but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.")

ChuckMcM 1y ago
There should probably be an entire chapter written on "Okay, but what if the product was desirable but not 'technically' legal, hmmm?" :-)
- praptak 1y ago
  It would say "we all know how it went" :)
  - ChuckMcM 1y ago
    Had an interesting discussion this past weekend on whether or not Silkroad was a criminal enterprise or a very successful startup. It was an interesting look at the question of 'business first' versus 'lawful first' societies and their relative success through history.
- jimbokun 1y ago
  I would say good luck finding enough very successful companies NOT matching that description to fill a chapter.
throwaway13024 1y ago
I joined a startup after working for 10+ years in regular companies and there was an incredible mix of highly competent and experienced people who knew how to get things done and were willing to put their egos aside to grow the product. As a small group, we made a product that was easy to sell. It was our market's "Iphone" moment. Our competitors were shaken and concerned because of our momentum and modern approach (they used Windows software on a yearly update schedule, while we were based on ios/android/web and updated daily). I don't think the founder realised how lucky they were to have this combination of people, as this was their first startup after years in enterprise sales. There were other competitors that started around the same time as us, but they failed to deliver. I don't think we were necessarily better at developing, sales or marketing individually, but as a team we were able to work together really well. When the founder raised a significant amount of money, they decided it was time to scale up and become a "real" company with proper hierarchy, reporting lines and processes. They hired people from FAANG who had impressive resumes, but were more concerned with titles and proving themselves. Constant rewrites, re-orgs and workshops to improve working processes made sure that progress halted, and most of the original team left. Today, the product is still alive as a minor actor, but they lost a lot of momentum and the competitors had time to launch their own "cloud" products. It was painful at the time, but now I look back and I see it as an important lesson.

ChuckMcM 1y ago

There should probably be an entire chapter written on "Okay, but what if the product was desirable but not 'technically' legal, hmmm?" :-)

praptak 1y ago
It would say "we all know how it went" :)
- ChuckMcM 1y ago
  Had an interesting discussion this past weekend on whether or not Silkroad was a criminal enterprise or a very successful startup. It was an interesting look at the question of 'business first' versus 'lawful first' societies and their relative success through history.
jimbokun 1y ago
I would say good luck finding enough very successful companies NOT matching that description to fill a chapter.

throwaway13024 1y ago

I joined a startup after working for 10+ years in regular companies and there was an incredible mix of highly competent and experienced people who knew how to get things done and were willing to put their egos aside to grow the product. As a small group, we made a product that was easy to sell. It was our market's "Iphone" moment. Our competitors were shaken and concerned because of our momentum and modern approach (they used Windows software on a yearly update schedule, while we were based on ios/android/web and updated daily). I don't think the founder realised how lucky they were to have this combination of people, as this was their first startup after years in enterprise sales. There were other competitors that started around the same time as us, but they failed to deliver. I don't think we were necessarily better at developing, sales or marketing individually, but as a team we were able to work together really well. When the founder raised a significant amount of money, they decided it was time to scale up and become a "real" company with proper hierarchy, reporting lines and processes. They hired people from FAANG who had impressive resumes, but were more concerned with titles and proving themselves. Constant rewrites, re-orgs and workshops to improve working processes made sure that progress halted, and most of the original team left. Today, the product is still alive as a minor actor, but they lost a lot of momentum and the competitors had time to launch their own "cloud" products. It was painful at the time, but now I look back and I see it as an important lesson.