4 ms·

Serious question: how did you envision "wide-scale deportations" playing out, prior to these events?

selimthegrim 1y ago
I’m sure they thought it was like the Boondocks Catcher Freeman master’s version of slavery where they were all in the fields playing games and hanging out with pre-packed picnic baskets, waiting for the expedition
chrisulloa 1y ago
seriously can't believe anyone thought it would happen any other way
eschaton 1y ago
Exactly—plenty of people said exactly what would happen. Why did you not believe them? Will you believe them in the future?
- slg 1y ago
  >Will you believe them in the future? An underdiscussed frustrating aspect of this whole era is that there is never any true retrospection. There is no adjustment in the credibility of the people who predicted exactly how things would play out or the people whose predictions ended up being incredibly wrong. If there is a lack of consequence for being wrong, it ends up meaning there won't be any consequences for maliciously lying in the moment knowing it's only a matter of time until they are proven wrong because when that day comes, they have already moved onto some other lie and the cycle continues.
  - stefap2 1y ago
    I think the retrospection should be why the massive influx was allowed to happen between 2020 to 2024. Because it did happened before, so it's not like we didn't know this will/can happen. There should be massive increase in processing of claims. Not extrajudciary deporting people. Why would somebody predict extrajudicial deporting if that hasn't happened before?
    - shadowgovt 1y ago
      It did happen before. The last time we made this guy president.
      - stefap2 1y ago
        Fair point. Although it seems more excessive this time arround.
- like_any_other 1y ago
  [flagged]
hayst4ck 1y ago
I think the most common of human mistakes is to think that because something is easy to say, it is easy to do. Once you actually dig in to how to accomplish something you find the devil in the details and complexity in places you didn't realized it exists. I would not believe someone is an experienced programmer unless they understand this idea in their bones. I think so many people here, with the benefit of hindsight, are accusatory, but they've committed this very same type of error themselves. I am vehemently against this administration, but feeling like something must be done about border violations is reasonable and thinking there is a way to do that is reasonable. I personally don't think it's the best use of resources, but I think it is reasonable to want some kind of border with meaningful enforcement. What is not reasonable is thinking this administration would do it in good faith, rather than as a means of power grabs against the legal system, but some people aren't capable of taking heed of warnings, and must experience consequences before they understand. Some people aren't able to think through "where is the public plan that explains this" and realize that if it's not there, if there is only the concept of a plan, then that's someone vying for power, not someone attempting to solve a problem. When people come back to reality and choose to be grounded in it, that should be celebrated rather than persecuted even if they materially caused damage by their ignorance and lack of thought. Game theory requires punishment/defection against those who don't cooperate, but it also requires forgiveness for those who repent.
- PoignardAzur 1y ago
  I strongly disagree with your framing. Yes, policies can have unintended consequences and immigration policy in particular is a minefield of obvious solutions having terrible results... But that's not what we're talking about. When OP says "I was for wide-scale deportations until I saw people I like being deported", it's not a case of unintended consequences, it's a case of "When I voted for the leopard party I didn't think the leopards would eat the faces of people I like!" Unintended consequences means things like "criminality increased because immigrant communities lost trust in the police". But come on. "Families swept into jails, plain-clothes officers ambushing people on their way to work or school" is how deportations work. Being surprised by that is like being surprised that the death penalty means people get executed. This isn't a failure of epistemology, it's a failure of empathy. OP just didn't think that the people getting deported would turn out to be people with moral value.
stefap2 1y ago
Good question. I still think it's unfair for these people to stay here, when legal refugees spent waiting years or decades for permission to enter often in bad conditions in refugee camps. The issue here is officials keep rounding up students on legal visas and parents who’ve lived here for years—exactly the people the article labels “families who had lived in the United States for years and had deep ties to their communities.” Where are the fresh arrivals?
- low_tech_love 1y ago
  So basically you came to the same conclusion as everyone else who is against this (and who I assume you would consider to be your political opponents): that even though it sounds good and reasonable on paper (as a populist concept), in practice it is invariably used for arbitrary exercise of power. Here is the thing: hard and complex problems require hard and complex solutions, but you chose to put in power the people who like easy solutions. I hope it’s never late to learn a lesson.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > hard and complex problems require hard and complex solutions There's actually a simple solution to illegal immigration: go after the employers. We don't because we want to have our cake and eat it too. (Same reason these raids aren't happening on farms in red states.)
    - low_tech_love 1y ago
      So, real story, I work in a university in Europe, and we’ve been told by the immigration explicitly that we need to increase at least 50% of rejections to applications from Pakistani students. Apparently they come with a student Visa to take a Master’s degree but after a month or two they get a job and disappear from the university. And this is not desirable. The fun part is that they are allowed to work with their student Visa, and they pay the tuition fees normally, which is spicy. So basically we have a huge gang problem right now, but instead of deporting gang criminals, we’re deporting honest Pakistani young people who are actually working legally for the country’s companies. But guess how many companies ever got in trouble for this?
like_any_other 1y ago
[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > could as well blame this as a necessary consequence of that prior neglect The endgame for this policy is a Democrat President detaining abroad--solely on executive authority--January 6th types, and other violent criminals on the right. (Or worse, nonviolent agitators.) Habeas corpus predates the Magna Carta [1] for a reason. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habeas_corpus#Origins_in_England https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habeas_corpus#Origins_in_Engla...
  - shadowgovt 1y ago
    I suspect you're being downvoted because your statement is interpreted as a both sides argument, but you are correct. The thing about up taking off guard rails is that they are taken off for whoever holds the power in the future. If this Trump administration policy is allowed to stand, there isn't anything stopping a future president, Democrat or Republican, from uncitizening political opponents and shuffling them off to a prison beyond the range of the press to observe or Congress to oversee. It's extremely dangerous, a viper striking at the heel of the checks and balances against tyranny soaking this government.
camgunz 1y ago
I'm pretty sympathetic to people who are hawkish on immigration: the right's been demagoguing it for... forever? You hear all kinds of total bullshit like they drive down wages or they eat fuckin dogs or whatever. The real tragedy is that immigration is probably the reason we've outpaced other OECD nations in economic growth recently, and more to the point, immigrants almost always drive wages up. TL;DR: immigration is practically all upside. The second part of this is that immigration and border enforcement is often pretty cruel, just by nature. You're talking about turning kids back into some Central/South American social system, breaking up families, etc. You only hear about it now because the Trump admin perversely rejoices in trumpeting the cruelty, but it's only slightly more gross now than it usually is. Until Trump, the right used to leave this part out. https://www.ucdavis.edu/magazine/how-does-immigration-affect-united-states https://www.ucdavis.edu/magazine/how-does-immigration-affect...
JeremyNT 1y ago
I too am curious. This isn't really a surprise [0] [0] https://www.thisamericanlife.org/846/this-is-the-cake-we-baked https://www.thisamericanlife.org/846/this-is-the-cake-we-bak...

I’m sure they thought it was like the Boondocks Catcher Freeman master’s version of slavery where they were all in the fields playing games and hanging out with pre-packed picnic baskets, waiting for the expedition

chrisulloa 1y ago

seriously can't believe anyone thought it would happen any other way

eschaton 1y ago

Exactly—plenty of people said exactly what would happen. Why did you not believe them? Will you believe them in the future?

slg 1y ago
>Will you believe them in the future? An underdiscussed frustrating aspect of this whole era is that there is never any true retrospection. There is no adjustment in the credibility of the people who predicted exactly how things would play out or the people whose predictions ended up being incredibly wrong. If there is a lack of consequence for being wrong, it ends up meaning there won't be any consequences for maliciously lying in the moment knowing it's only a matter of time until they are proven wrong because when that day comes, they have already moved onto some other lie and the cycle continues.
- stefap2 1y ago
  I think the retrospection should be why the massive influx was allowed to happen between 2020 to 2024. Because it did happened before, so it's not like we didn't know this will/can happen. There should be massive increase in processing of claims. Not extrajudciary deporting people. Why would somebody predict extrajudicial deporting if that hasn't happened before?
  - shadowgovt 1y ago
    It did happen before. The last time we made this guy president.
    - stefap2 1y ago
      Fair point. Although it seems more excessive this time arround.
like_any_other 1y ago
[flagged]

hayst4ck 1y ago

I think the most common of human mistakes is to think that because something is easy to say, it is easy to do. Once you actually dig in to how to accomplish something you find the devil in the details and complexity in places you didn't realized it exists. I would not believe someone is an experienced programmer unless they understand this idea in their bones. I think so many people here, with the benefit of hindsight, are accusatory, but they've committed this very same type of error themselves. I am vehemently against this administration, but feeling like something must be done about border violations is reasonable and thinking there is a way to do that is reasonable. I personally don't think it's the best use of resources, but I think it is reasonable to want some kind of border with meaningful enforcement. What is not reasonable is thinking this administration would do it in good faith, rather than as a means of power grabs against the legal system, but some people aren't capable of taking heed of warnings, and must experience consequences before they understand. Some people aren't able to think through "where is the public plan that explains this" and realize that if it's not there, if there is only the concept of a plan, then that's someone vying for power, not someone attempting to solve a problem. When people come back to reality and choose to be grounded in it, that should be celebrated rather than persecuted even if they materially caused damage by their ignorance and lack of thought. Game theory requires punishment/defection against those who don't cooperate, but it also requires forgiveness for those who repent.

PoignardAzur 1y ago
I strongly disagree with your framing. Yes, policies can have unintended consequences and immigration policy in particular is a minefield of obvious solutions having terrible results... But that's not what we're talking about. When OP says "I was for wide-scale deportations until I saw people I like being deported", it's not a case of unintended consequences, it's a case of "When I voted for the leopard party I didn't think the leopards would eat the faces of people I like!" Unintended consequences means things like "criminality increased because immigrant communities lost trust in the police". But come on. "Families swept into jails, plain-clothes officers ambushing people on their way to work or school" is how deportations work. Being surprised by that is like being surprised that the death penalty means people get executed. This isn't a failure of epistemology, it's a failure of empathy. OP just didn't think that the people getting deported would turn out to be people with moral value.

stefap2 1y ago

Good question. I still think it's unfair for these people to stay here, when legal refugees spent waiting years or decades for permission to enter often in bad conditions in refugee camps. The issue here is officials keep rounding up students on legal visas and parents who’ve lived here for years—exactly the people the article labels “families who had lived in the United States for years and had deep ties to their communities.” Where are the fresh arrivals?

low_tech_love 1y ago
So basically you came to the same conclusion as everyone else who is against this (and who I assume you would consider to be your political opponents): that even though it sounds good and reasonable on paper (as a populist concept), in practice it is invariably used for arbitrary exercise of power. Here is the thing: hard and complex problems require hard and complex solutions, but you chose to put in power the people who like easy solutions. I hope it’s never late to learn a lesson.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > hard and complex problems require hard and complex solutions There's actually a simple solution to illegal immigration: go after the employers. We don't because we want to have our cake and eat it too. (Same reason these raids aren't happening on farms in red states.)
  - low_tech_love 1y ago
    So, real story, I work in a university in Europe, and we’ve been told by the immigration explicitly that we need to increase at least 50% of rejections to applications from Pakistani students. Apparently they come with a student Visa to take a Master’s degree but after a month or two they get a job and disappear from the university. And this is not desirable. The fun part is that they are allowed to work with their student Visa, and they pay the tuition fees normally, which is spicy. So basically we have a huge gang problem right now, but instead of deporting gang criminals, we’re deporting honest Pakistani young people who are actually working legally for the country’s companies. But guess how many companies ever got in trouble for this?

like_any_other 1y ago

[flagged]

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> could as well blame this as a necessary consequence of that prior neglect The endgame for this policy is a Democrat President detaining abroad--solely on executive authority--January 6th types, and other violent criminals on the right. (Or worse, nonviolent agitators.) Habeas corpus predates the Magna Carta [1] for a reason. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habeas_corpus#Origins_in_England https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habeas_corpus#Origins_in_Engla...
- shadowgovt 1y ago
  I suspect you're being downvoted because your statement is interpreted as a both sides argument, but you are correct. The thing about up taking off guard rails is that they are taken off for whoever holds the power in the future. If this Trump administration policy is allowed to stand, there isn't anything stopping a future president, Democrat or Republican, from uncitizening political opponents and shuffling them off to a prison beyond the range of the press to observe or Congress to oversee. It's extremely dangerous, a viper striking at the heel of the checks and balances against tyranny soaking this government.

camgunz 1y ago

I'm pretty sympathetic to people who are hawkish on immigration: the right's been demagoguing it for... forever? You hear all kinds of total bullshit like they drive down wages or they eat fuckin dogs or whatever. The real tragedy is that immigration is probably the reason we've outpaced other OECD nations in economic growth recently, and more to the point, immigrants almost always drive wages up. TL;DR: immigration is practically all upside. The second part of this is that immigration and border enforcement is often pretty cruel, just by nature. You're talking about turning kids back into some Central/South American social system, breaking up families, etc. You only hear about it now because the Trump admin perversely rejoices in trumpeting the cruelty, but it's only slightly more gross now than it usually is. Until Trump, the right used to leave this part out. https://www.ucdavis.edu/magazine/how-does-immigration-affect-united-states https://www.ucdavis.edu/magazine/how-does-immigration-affect...

JeremyNT 1y ago

I too am curious. This isn't really a surprise [0] [0] https://www.thisamericanlife.org/846/this-is-the-cake-we-baked https://www.thisamericanlife.org/846/this-is-the-cake-we-bak...