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The title almost implies that CA had some unnatural acceleration to put it past japan. I think it's more that japan has been declining. This won't last once th

The title almost implies that CA had some unnatural acceleration to put it past japan. I think it's more that japan has been declining. This won't last once the US population starts declining. We've been held afloat by immigration but even that's running out. Japan was ahead of the curve in terms of modernity. Looking at them is almost like looking at our own future.

throwaway473825 2y ago
In 2023, Germany overtook Japan as the world's third largest economy. This year, India is projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth largest economy. I wonder if the article has taken India into account.
Axsuul 2y ago
The US has immigration
- platevoltage 2y ago
  Japan might want to consider it soon too.
  - remarkEon 2y ago
    Why?
    - abenga 2y ago
      Because the country will die soon (in civilization time scale)?
      - Jensson 2y ago
        With that argument the world will die soon, migration is just a temporary measure in civilization time scale. So better fix it now than push it to the next generation.
      - remarkEon 2y ago
        Eh, this seems dubious. If there's something structural within a nation that is leading to lower birth rates, importing excess humans from other countries doesn't actually address the root problem.
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    Japan already is. Going to Japan today you’ll see that it’s an extremely multicultural country loaded with tourists and immigrants.
- remarkEon 2y ago
  Magically, immigration is the _one_ supply shock that has zero impact on wages. Or, the _one_ demand shock that has zero impact on housing prices. The only impact it apparently does have is to make the GDP number go up.
  - tw_wankette 2y ago
    Anything sounds wonderful if you ignore the problems.
Aeolun 2y ago
Japan’s population will start declining faster than the US though xD we have maybe 10 years before basically the entirety rural population starts dying from old age.
rsynnott 2y ago
It's not even really that, I think; given that it's nominal GDP, it's likely mostly currency fluctuations, likely taken at end of 2024. If so, the nominal GDP situation has likely reverted, as the dollar has fallen about 9% vs the yen since the start of the year. This is one of the reasons that nominal GDP isn't all that useful a metric.
Ylpertnodi 2y ago
>We've been held afloat by immigration but even that's running out. 'Running out' - cute euphemism for 'you're not welcome', and very much worser: 'deportation'.
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  No I seriously did not mean that. Basically global birth rates are declining. You can offset this decline in local microcosms via immigration but if global birth rates are declining inevitably the external sources will dry up. Lots of immigrants from say China coming to the US right? This props the US population up, but logically speaking Chinese birth rates are declining... So that means immigration won't last. In fact, when immigration begins drying up, the US will become much much more open to it.

throwaway473825 2y ago

In 2023, Germany overtook Japan as the world's third largest economy. This year, India is projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth largest economy. I wonder if the article has taken India into account.

Axsuul 2y ago

The US has immigration

platevoltage 2y ago
Japan might want to consider it soon too.
- remarkEon 2y ago
  Why?
  - abenga 2y ago
    Because the country will die soon (in civilization time scale)?
    - Jensson 2y ago
      With that argument the world will die soon, migration is just a temporary measure in civilization time scale. So better fix it now than push it to the next generation.
    - remarkEon 2y ago
      Eh, this seems dubious. If there's something structural within a nation that is leading to lower birth rates, importing excess humans from other countries doesn't actually address the root problem.
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  Japan already is. Going to Japan today you’ll see that it’s an extremely multicultural country loaded with tourists and immigrants.
remarkEon 2y ago
Magically, immigration is the _one_ supply shock that has zero impact on wages. Or, the _one_ demand shock that has zero impact on housing prices. The only impact it apparently does have is to make the GDP number go up.
- tw_wankette 2y ago
  Anything sounds wonderful if you ignore the problems.

Aeolun 2y ago

Japan’s population will start declining faster than the US though xD we have maybe 10 years before basically the entirety rural population starts dying from old age.

rsynnott 2y ago

It's not even really that, I think; given that it's nominal GDP, it's likely mostly currency fluctuations, likely taken at end of 2024. If so, the nominal GDP situation has likely reverted, as the dollar has fallen about 9% vs the yen since the start of the year. This is one of the reasons that nominal GDP isn't all that useful a metric.

Ylpertnodi 2y ago

>We've been held afloat by immigration but even that's running out. 'Running out' - cute euphemism for 'you're not welcome', and very much worser: 'deportation'.

ninetyninenine 2y ago
No I seriously did not mean that. Basically global birth rates are declining. You can offset this decline in local microcosms via immigration but if global birth rates are declining inevitably the external sources will dry up. Lots of immigrants from say China coming to the US right? This props the US population up, but logically speaking Chinese birth rates are declining... So that means immigration won't last. In fact, when immigration begins drying up, the US will become much much more open to it.