4 ms·

Almost without fail, every fall of a government is caused by external invasion or lack of food/water. All other issues people will complain about, but never ac

Almost without fail, every fall of a government is caused by external invasion or lack of food/water. All other issues people will complain about, but never act on en-mass.

sigwinch 2y ago
Syria 2006-2011, Ukraine next year
- londons_explore 2y ago
  > The unrest coincided with the most intense drought ever recorded in Syria, which lasted from 2006 to 2011 and resulted in widespread crop failure, [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war
  - JSteph22 2y ago
    The fall of the government only occurred 14 years after the end of that drought though...
    - plasmatix 2y ago
      Depends which part of Syria we're talking about.
- przemub 2y ago
  > Ukraine next year Next three days, you mean?
hollerith 2y ago
Counterexamples: fall of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Fourth Republic in France in 1954, English Civil War and the English royal restoration a few decades later.
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  Well, I guess the GP should have added "the government stupidly mass-murdering its citizens at random" to the other 3 causes. About the fall of the Soviet Union, a lot of it was caused by each one of the GP's factors and the mass-murdering. You seem to want a clear case with a well defined "fall", but theirs wasn't it (like any supranacional empire).
  - wqaatwt 2y ago
    > and the mass-murdering Right, yet mass murdering in the USSR stopped 30 years before its collapse. Of course it was still an oppressive totalitarian state but nowhere close to Stalin’s day. It kind of the opposite. USSR collapsed a few years after the party loosened its grip and began liberalizing. Freedom of the press (to a limited extent) fair elections began a cascade. On the other hand during the great purge in the 30s and later the 40s there was very little and effectively no organized opposition (outside of a few recently occupied peripheral states)
    - spinytree21 2y ago
      afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too. you do make a point that nobody revolted during the purges, fear and killing opposition can be stabilizing. Removing fear (by say liberalization) can embolden opposition to act fast and get rid of perceived tyrants / avenge past transgressions.
      - wqaatwt 2y ago
        > embolden opposition If there even is one. In the USSR most reformists or people who achieved real power after the collapse were opportunistic party insiders who were at the right place at the right time. There were some exceptions of course. > afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too. Not that many in relative terms. Even according to independent estimates it was ~26k over 10 years (compared to 1-3 million Afghans..). That was of course much more than what NATO/etc. lost in their war but several times less than what Russia is losing now in Ukraine every single year. And of course there was no famine in the USSR in the late 80s (and as for general shortages the worst came when the collapse was effectively inevitable).

Almost without fail, every fall of a government is caused by external invasion or lack of food/water. All other issues people will complain about, but never act on en-mass.

sigwinch 2y ago

Syria 2006-2011, Ukraine next year

londons_explore 2y ago
> The unrest coincided with the most intense drought ever recorded in Syria, which lasted from 2006 to 2011 and resulted in widespread crop failure, [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war
- JSteph22 2y ago
  The fall of the government only occurred 14 years after the end of that drought though...
  - plasmatix 2y ago
    Depends which part of Syria we're talking about.
przemub 2y ago
> Ukraine next year Next three days, you mean?

hollerith 2y ago

Counterexamples: fall of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Fourth Republic in France in 1954, English Civil War and the English royal restoration a few decades later.

marcosdumay 2y ago
Well, I guess the GP should have added "the government stupidly mass-murdering its citizens at random" to the other 3 causes. About the fall of the Soviet Union, a lot of it was caused by each one of the GP's factors and the mass-murdering. You seem to want a clear case with a well defined "fall", but theirs wasn't it (like any supranacional empire).
- wqaatwt 2y ago
  > and the mass-murdering Right, yet mass murdering in the USSR stopped 30 years before its collapse. Of course it was still an oppressive totalitarian state but nowhere close to Stalin’s day. It kind of the opposite. USSR collapsed a few years after the party loosened its grip and began liberalizing. Freedom of the press (to a limited extent) fair elections began a cascade. On the other hand during the great purge in the 30s and later the 40s there was very little and effectively no organized opposition (outside of a few recently occupied peripheral states)
  - spinytree21 2y ago
    afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too. you do make a point that nobody revolted during the purges, fear and killing opposition can be stabilizing. Removing fear (by say liberalization) can embolden opposition to act fast and get rid of perceived tyrants / avenge past transgressions.
    - wqaatwt 2y ago
      > embolden opposition If there even is one. In the USSR most reformists or people who achieved real power after the collapse were opportunistic party insiders who were at the right place at the right time. There were some exceptions of course. > afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too. Not that many in relative terms. Even according to independent estimates it was ~26k over 10 years (compared to 1-3 million Afghans..). That was of course much more than what NATO/etc. lost in their war but several times less than what Russia is losing now in Ukraine every single year. And of course there was no famine in the USSR in the late 80s (and as for general shortages the worst came when the collapse was effectively inevitable).