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This pretty much mirrors what a friend of mine said (he is a recently-retired Co-CEO of a medium-sized manufacturing business). He's been telling me this, for

This pretty much mirrors what a friend of mine said (he is a recently-retired Co-CEO of a medium-sized manufacturing business). He's been telling me this, for years. It's not a secret. The information has been out there, for ages. I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this.

nine_zeros 2y ago
> I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this. Curious why you are surprised at incompetence being unable to understand complexity.
- ChrisMarshallNY 2y ago
  Fair point. :/ My friend is watching his business get ready to die. His wife is still the CEO, and she's losing her shit. They're not alone. There's thousands and thousands of similar operations, all over the US, that will have to shut down, if something doesn't give. I guess the mega-rich oligarchs think this is great, but they don't employ the majority of Americans.
  - skyyler 2y ago
    The majority of Americans simply are not going to benefit from this administration, it seems.
  - pjc50 2y ago
    > They're not alone. There's thousands and thousands of similar operations, all over the US, that will have to shut down, if something doesn't give. I wonder where they were on election day, when they had a choice. The record of business owners voting D is .. not great.
    - bluGill 2y ago
      D has not been a good choice for small business either.
      - pjc50 2y ago
        The electoral Monty Hall problem offered people a choice of two boxes, and we can all see what's in the one they picked.
- smcl 2y ago
  The thing is the US already experienced Trump 1.0, so it was presumably easy for many to assume that Trump 2.0 would follow broadly the same pattern and that there'd be an "adult in the room" somewhere to say "this will crash the world economy and do three consecutive 9/11s worth of damage to the stock market". So even though there are some very silly people in very high places saying some very wild things, the assumption for many is that there's someone there to manage the chaos and minimise the stupidity. This has been a pretty sobering reminder to anyone that, in fact, there is no such thing.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    The amazing things to me is people still are not asking why people are so mad about the state of things they voted for Trump in the first place. Trump is the only one promising to make some changes to make life better for those who don't want to go to college. "Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but everyone else is ignoring us" is what I keep hearing when I listen to those people. Fix health care - socialism isn't the only answer despite what many hear will say. Fix school - it shouldn't be all sit at your desk but that is what we get. Bring back gym class. Make kids get practical experience building the things they designed (that is shop class). Math could be fun - but most teachers don't believe it themselves, and so they haven't a hope of passing that on to students.
    - smcl 2y ago
      Do you think Trump has some ideas on fixing healthcare or school? Is there even a consensus on what needs fixed? You've said re healthcare that "socialism isn't the answer" - assuming you mean "I don't want a single-payer or free-at-the-point-of-use system" then I'm not sure what is the answer then. They've currently got some of the worst health outcomes on the planet despite spending amongst the most per-capita. They can either try more privatisation or maybe give something like Medicare For All a shot... And re "fix school" you seem to suggest that shop class needs to be more widespread and maths teachers just need to be more enthusiastic? If the idea is to give kids more options then things like making sure that there are widely available apprenticeship programs and technical colleges to develop these skills, as well as strong (dare I say, union) jobs waiting for them when they complete their training. And re maths teachers, if it's anything like the UK I suspect that teachers are being expected to do more with less at every stage of schooling. They handle more kids per class with fewer teaching assistants available. They need to handle more diverse lessons than before because there are insufficient PE teachers, Music teachers, Drama teachers etc). They're having a tougher time with kids behaviourally due to the rise of social media and a broader economic decline that causes a whole host of social issues that end up being schools' problem. Having poor school system is a symptom of greater societal problems, you don't fix schools without solving those (sidenote: you also don't solve those by pointing the finger at vulnerable communities like immigrants and LGBTQ+). Telling maths teachers to be a bit more enthusiastic doesn't fix any of that, it just makes the maths teachers hate their job a bit more.
npiano 2y ago
A genuine question, presuming no correct answer: what is to be done about it? China is reportedly on track to run more than 50% of global manufacturing by 2030, if the World Bank is correct. What would you do to act against this? Is doing nothing acceptable?
- ChrisMarshallNY 2y ago
  Yeah, there's no painless answer. China is not a democracy. They can force millions of people to endure terrible working conditions, pollution, corruption, and abuse, and take a very long view. The US can't do this.
  - themaninthedark 2y ago
    Why do the working conditions need to be terrible? Why does there need to be corruption and abuse? Why do they have to expose their workers to pollution? As far as I know, none of those things are required for manufacturing.
    - ChrisMarshallNY 2y ago
      No, but like so much in life, doing it correctly is always more difficult and expensive, so people that “shortcut” the process, often win. That’s why strong regulations are actually important (not something that businesses want to hear -until a “shortcutter” starts to eat their lunch).
- bluGill 2y ago
  I would act against China - because China is making political moves that I do not like. (they are supporting Russia in Ukraine, they are building up to invade Taiwan, they are supporting terror in the middle east...) By acting against China that means I applaud moving manufacturing to Vietnam. I want to help Botswana grow - and I wish there were more countries in Africa I could name that seem to be on a good path (I cannot name the majority of countries in Africa, the ones I can are because they are in the news for bad things happening. I'm not even sure Botswana - I mostly know about them because last time I brought up Africa someone from there said their country was an exception). Overall the world is better off with a lot of trade. Comparative advantage is real. There are things I can do that I don't want to become good at. However we also need to be aware that not everyone in the world is the friend of freedom and some must be cut off lest they grow. Nobody is perfect though, so you can't cut off everyone.
idle_zealot 2y ago
> I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this. Why would you assume they don't understand? Every time they're questioned about the tariffs the narrative shifts. We have a trade deficit, we're getting ripped off, we want to bring back domestic manufacturing jobs, we'll automate them with robotics and AI, we're playing hardball to negotiate a better trade deal and get rid of fentanyl, it's a matter of national security, an economic emergency, the dollar is overvalued. You cannot trust a word from them. If you want to understand why they're doing something you must look only at incentives and outcomes. My current analysis is that there's some internal conflict, but the overall push for tariffs comes from a desire to crash the economy and use the downturn to consolidate wealth and power.
- nmeofthestate 2y ago
  I genuinely don't believe there's five-dimensional chess happening here. The problem is simply that the US president is a repugnant, stupid, erratic egotist who's surrounded himself with nasty people of varying levels of intelligence, with stupid ideas about how to run the country, and this is the policy result.
  - idle_zealot 2y ago
    To be clear, I don't think it's chess either. I think Trump likes tariffs and wants to appear strong by slapping them around. I think some, but not all of his hangers-on are using this to push for a recession. There are multiple hands on the levers of power here, but there's a common interest in transforming the US into a Russia-style oligarchy.
fullshark 2y ago
Some did understand it I think (maybe not Trump), but were tired of hearing it couldn't be done and decided to try. A large % of Americans are happy at least someone is trying, and at the very least perhaps some lessons will be learned, and the parties will recalibrate their policy platforms to actually accomplish reshoring. That's the optimistic POV at least imo.

nine_zeros 2y ago

> I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this. Curious why you are surprised at incompetence being unable to understand complexity.

ChrisMarshallNY 2y ago
Fair point. :/ My friend is watching his business get ready to die. His wife is still the CEO, and she's losing her shit. They're not alone. There's thousands and thousands of similar operations, all over the US, that will have to shut down, if something doesn't give. I guess the mega-rich oligarchs think this is great, but they don't employ the majority of Americans.
- skyyler 2y ago
  The majority of Americans simply are not going to benefit from this administration, it seems.
- pjc50 2y ago
  > They're not alone. There's thousands and thousands of similar operations, all over the US, that will have to shut down, if something doesn't give. I wonder where they were on election day, when they had a choice. The record of business owners voting D is .. not great.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    D has not been a good choice for small business either.
    - pjc50 2y ago
      The electoral Monty Hall problem offered people a choice of two boxes, and we can all see what's in the one they picked.
smcl 2y ago
The thing is the US already experienced Trump 1.0, so it was presumably easy for many to assume that Trump 2.0 would follow broadly the same pattern and that there'd be an "adult in the room" somewhere to say "this will crash the world economy and do three consecutive 9/11s worth of damage to the stock market". So even though there are some very silly people in very high places saying some very wild things, the assumption for many is that there's someone there to manage the chaos and minimise the stupidity. This has been a pretty sobering reminder to anyone that, in fact, there is no such thing.
- bluGill 2y ago
  The amazing things to me is people still are not asking why people are so mad about the state of things they voted for Trump in the first place. Trump is the only one promising to make some changes to make life better for those who don't want to go to college. "Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but everyone else is ignoring us" is what I keep hearing when I listen to those people. Fix health care - socialism isn't the only answer despite what many hear will say. Fix school - it shouldn't be all sit at your desk but that is what we get. Bring back gym class. Make kids get practical experience building the things they designed (that is shop class). Math could be fun - but most teachers don't believe it themselves, and so they haven't a hope of passing that on to students.
  - smcl 2y ago
    Do you think Trump has some ideas on fixing healthcare or school? Is there even a consensus on what needs fixed? You've said re healthcare that "socialism isn't the answer" - assuming you mean "I don't want a single-payer or free-at-the-point-of-use system" then I'm not sure what is the answer then. They've currently got some of the worst health outcomes on the planet despite spending amongst the most per-capita. They can either try more privatisation or maybe give something like Medicare For All a shot... And re "fix school" you seem to suggest that shop class needs to be more widespread and maths teachers just need to be more enthusiastic? If the idea is to give kids more options then things like making sure that there are widely available apprenticeship programs and technical colleges to develop these skills, as well as strong (dare I say, union) jobs waiting for them when they complete their training. And re maths teachers, if it's anything like the UK I suspect that teachers are being expected to do more with less at every stage of schooling. They handle more kids per class with fewer teaching assistants available. They need to handle more diverse lessons than before because there are insufficient PE teachers, Music teachers, Drama teachers etc). They're having a tougher time with kids behaviourally due to the rise of social media and a broader economic decline that causes a whole host of social issues that end up being schools' problem. Having poor school system is a symptom of greater societal problems, you don't fix schools without solving those (sidenote: you also don't solve those by pointing the finger at vulnerable communities like immigrants and LGBTQ+). Telling maths teachers to be a bit more enthusiastic doesn't fix any of that, it just makes the maths teachers hate their job a bit more.

npiano 2y ago

A genuine question, presuming no correct answer: what is to be done about it? China is reportedly on track to run more than 50% of global manufacturing by 2030, if the World Bank is correct. What would you do to act against this? Is doing nothing acceptable?

ChrisMarshallNY 2y ago
Yeah, there's no painless answer. China is not a democracy. They can force millions of people to endure terrible working conditions, pollution, corruption, and abuse, and take a very long view. The US can't do this.
- themaninthedark 2y ago
  Why do the working conditions need to be terrible? Why does there need to be corruption and abuse? Why do they have to expose their workers to pollution? As far as I know, none of those things are required for manufacturing.
  - ChrisMarshallNY 2y ago
    No, but like so much in life, doing it correctly is always more difficult and expensive, so people that “shortcut” the process, often win. That’s why strong regulations are actually important (not something that businesses want to hear -until a “shortcutter” starts to eat their lunch).
bluGill 2y ago
I would act against China - because China is making political moves that I do not like. (they are supporting Russia in Ukraine, they are building up to invade Taiwan, they are supporting terror in the middle east...) By acting against China that means I applaud moving manufacturing to Vietnam. I want to help Botswana grow - and I wish there were more countries in Africa I could name that seem to be on a good path (I cannot name the majority of countries in Africa, the ones I can are because they are in the news for bad things happening. I'm not even sure Botswana - I mostly know about them because last time I brought up Africa someone from there said their country was an exception). Overall the world is better off with a lot of trade. Comparative advantage is real. There are things I can do that I don't want to become good at. However we also need to be aware that not everyone in the world is the friend of freedom and some must be cut off lest they grow. Nobody is perfect though, so you can't cut off everyone.

idle_zealot 2y ago

> I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this. Why would you assume they don't understand? Every time they're questioned about the tariffs the narrative shifts. We have a trade deficit, we're getting ripped off, we want to bring back domestic manufacturing jobs, we'll automate them with robotics and AI, we're playing hardball to negotiate a better trade deal and get rid of fentanyl, it's a matter of national security, an economic emergency, the dollar is overvalued. You cannot trust a word from them. If you want to understand why they're doing something you must look only at incentives and outcomes. My current analysis is that there's some internal conflict, but the overall push for tariffs comes from a desire to crash the economy and use the downturn to consolidate wealth and power.

nmeofthestate 2y ago
I genuinely don't believe there's five-dimensional chess happening here. The problem is simply that the US president is a repugnant, stupid, erratic egotist who's surrounded himself with nasty people of varying levels of intelligence, with stupid ideas about how to run the country, and this is the policy result.
- idle_zealot 2y ago
  To be clear, I don't think it's chess either. I think Trump likes tariffs and wants to appear strong by slapping them around. I think some, but not all of his hangers-on are using this to push for a recession. There are multiple hands on the levers of power here, but there's a common interest in transforming the US into a Russia-style oligarchy.

fullshark 2y ago

Some did understand it I think (maybe not Trump), but were tired of hearing it couldn't be done and decided to try. A large % of Americans are happy at least someone is trying, and at the very least perhaps some lessons will be learned, and the parties will recalibrate their policy platforms to actually accomplish reshoring. That's the optimistic POV at least imo.