4 ms·

See also "The Global Collapse of Coupling and Fertility" https://www.ggd.world/p/the-global-collapse-of-coupling-and https://www.ggd.world/p/the-global-collaps

See also "The Global Collapse of Coupling and Fertility" https://www.ggd.world/p/the-global-collapse-of-coupling-and https://www.ggd.world/p/the-global-collapse-of-coupling-and I wonder if the ultimate cost (in lives never born) of technologies like smartphones and Tinder will be. If a significant part of the entire youth cohort never learns to interact with the other sex in the real world, we might be looking at a pandemics of loneliness - and at subsequent global birth deficits in eight to nine figures.

pfdietz 2y ago
I've come to a conclusion that the solution may be somewhat radical. If coupling is reduced, it should become the norm for women to have and raise children alone, or at least without a male partner. This increases the burden on women, so at the same time the number of children they must support would have to decrease. This could be achieved technologically, by filtering sperm to remove Y chromosome carrying gametes. As a result, the female/male ratio of newborns would dramatically increase. At the US TFR of 1.66, a 2:1 female to male ratio would be more than enough to maintain the population. Even higher ratios could be imagined, leading to an almost entirely female population. Social engineering to reach this state is left as an exercise to the science fiction writer.
- edg5000 2y ago
  Interesting point. Probably there are many historical case studies of populations with unbalanced sex-ratios. There are many reasons for it to go out of balance. Recent/currently China and Russia are examples. According to wikipedia; the ratio of boys to girls is 1.3:1 in some rural areas in China.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    Which makes the situation in China even worse than the TFR would indicate.
- trollbridge 2y ago
  You don’t need science fiction to imagine this; simply look at societies that just got through a brutal war that cost them a lot of their young men, although I suppose you could watch Dr. Strangelove for some inspiration. Raising children is a lot of work. It’s twice as much work without a partner, not to mention not having the extra income. (I don’t imagine men in a 2:1 society will be interested in paying much child support.) The number of children in advanced societies (particularly in cities) has already plummeted. And I don’t think many women are going to want to sign up to be single mums. As far as sperm selection goes… that’s already an option popular in China and India, along with sex selective abortions. The preference is for males, though, for various reasons. I am not convinced the end result of this is wholesome.
- siffl 2y ago
  Perhaps even more interesting in the near-future is the prospect of creating sperm, through technological means, from female cells. The research to do this seems to be close to succeeding - see e.g. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11601-bone-stem-cells-turned-into-primitive-sperm-cells https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11601-bone-stem-cells... When researchers perfect this technique for humans, which they almost certainly will eventually, there will be no need for men at all. Women will be able to obtain lab-grown sperm from other women, and use this for fertilization. All of these female-originating sperms will be X-chromosomed, and so in the much longer term we will see the eradication of the Y chromosome - and all the problems that arise from it.
  - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
    > so in the much longer term we will see the eradication of the Y chromosome - and all the problems that arise from it. Jeez what did my chromies ever do to you?
    - ben_w 2y ago
      Colour blindness, famously. I'd have to google for any other Y-specific issues, don't know them off the top of my head.
  - justonenote 2y ago
    gawd this is so misogynistic, some women like having men around, for whatever reason. perhaps we can keep a few around for women into that.
  - anal_reactor 2y ago
    It's amazing that we'd rather consider eugenics than change our social norms
    - inglor_cz 2y ago
      Not the OP, but biology may be more amenable to change than social norms. There is an interesting old article on Slate Star Codex touching this: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/10/society-is-fixed-biology-is-mutable/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/10/society-is-fixed-biolo...
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  But like… why?
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    I don't want the human population to asymptotically go to zero.
    - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
      That assumes our behaviors don’t shift in response to our environment though. The main issue with birthrates is the very real incoming demographic collapse, not a complete population collapse.
      - pfdietz 2y ago
        "We shouldn't consider your solution because there may be other solutions."
        BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        I want the other solutions that will inevitably arise, likely as the sum total of many individuals’ organic actions, because I believe they render your solution unnecessary and would have less unpredictable negative externalities.
- justonenote 2y ago
  cool idea. once we have mandated ivf as the only way of conception we can probably start selecting sperm from populations with higher than average iq too.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    A mandate would be only one way to reach that state, and I don't think it would be a good way. Better would be a situation where female children become desired over male children, for example because they have better career prospects. In a female dominated society, discrimination against men could be a thing. Today, already, female students on average outperform male students in school and university.
    - justonenote 2y ago
      my comment was tounge-in-cheek, pointing out that its essentially eugenics which is a controversial topic. although apparently less so when its applied to "Y chromosome holders" as you can see in a sibling reply where this particular group of people are deemed problematic and something that should be got rid of.
      - pfdietz 2y ago
        In a mostly-female world where women reproduce by artificial insemination I could see the sperm being marketed with focus on the qualities of the source. This is positive eugenics, albeit being driven by individual decisions, and could include genetic screening. Indeed, selection by women of desirable mates is already a kind of eugenics.

pfdietz 2y ago

I've come to a conclusion that the solution may be somewhat radical. If coupling is reduced, it should become the norm for women to have and raise children alone, or at least without a male partner. This increases the burden on women, so at the same time the number of children they must support would have to decrease. This could be achieved technologically, by filtering sperm to remove Y chromosome carrying gametes. As a result, the female/male ratio of newborns would dramatically increase. At the US TFR of 1.66, a 2:1 female to male ratio would be more than enough to maintain the population. Even higher ratios could be imagined, leading to an almost entirely female population. Social engineering to reach this state is left as an exercise to the science fiction writer.

edg5000 2y ago
Interesting point. Probably there are many historical case studies of populations with unbalanced sex-ratios. There are many reasons for it to go out of balance. Recent/currently China and Russia are examples. According to wikipedia; the ratio of boys to girls is 1.3:1 in some rural areas in China.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  Which makes the situation in China even worse than the TFR would indicate.
trollbridge 2y ago
You don’t need science fiction to imagine this; simply look at societies that just got through a brutal war that cost them a lot of their young men, although I suppose you could watch Dr. Strangelove for some inspiration. Raising children is a lot of work. It’s twice as much work without a partner, not to mention not having the extra income. (I don’t imagine men in a 2:1 society will be interested in paying much child support.) The number of children in advanced societies (particularly in cities) has already plummeted. And I don’t think many women are going to want to sign up to be single mums. As far as sperm selection goes… that’s already an option popular in China and India, along with sex selective abortions. The preference is for males, though, for various reasons. I am not convinced the end result of this is wholesome.
siffl 2y ago
Perhaps even more interesting in the near-future is the prospect of creating sperm, through technological means, from female cells. The research to do this seems to be close to succeeding - see e.g. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11601-bone-stem-cells-turned-into-primitive-sperm-cells https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11601-bone-stem-cells... When researchers perfect this technique for humans, which they almost certainly will eventually, there will be no need for men at all. Women will be able to obtain lab-grown sperm from other women, and use this for fertilization. All of these female-originating sperms will be X-chromosomed, and so in the much longer term we will see the eradication of the Y chromosome - and all the problems that arise from it.
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  > so in the much longer term we will see the eradication of the Y chromosome - and all the problems that arise from it. Jeez what did my chromies ever do to you?
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Colour blindness, famously. I'd have to google for any other Y-specific issues, don't know them off the top of my head.
- justonenote 2y ago
  gawd this is so misogynistic, some women like having men around, for whatever reason. perhaps we can keep a few around for women into that.
- anal_reactor 2y ago
  It's amazing that we'd rather consider eugenics than change our social norms
  - inglor_cz 2y ago
    Not the OP, but biology may be more amenable to change than social norms. There is an interesting old article on Slate Star Codex touching this: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/10/society-is-fixed-biology-is-mutable/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/10/society-is-fixed-biolo...
BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
But like… why?
- pfdietz 2y ago
  I don't want the human population to asymptotically go to zero.
  - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
    That assumes our behaviors don’t shift in response to our environment though. The main issue with birthrates is the very real incoming demographic collapse, not a complete population collapse.
    - pfdietz 2y ago
      "We shouldn't consider your solution because there may be other solutions."
      - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        I want the other solutions that will inevitably arise, likely as the sum total of many individuals’ organic actions, because I believe they render your solution unnecessary and would have less unpredictable negative externalities.
justonenote 2y ago
cool idea. once we have mandated ivf as the only way of conception we can probably start selecting sperm from populations with higher than average iq too.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  A mandate would be only one way to reach that state, and I don't think it would be a good way. Better would be a situation where female children become desired over male children, for example because they have better career prospects. In a female dominated society, discrimination against men could be a thing. Today, already, female students on average outperform male students in school and university.
  - justonenote 2y ago
    my comment was tounge-in-cheek, pointing out that its essentially eugenics which is a controversial topic. although apparently less so when its applied to "Y chromosome holders" as you can see in a sibling reply where this particular group of people are deemed problematic and something that should be got rid of.
    - pfdietz 2y ago
      In a mostly-female world where women reproduce by artificial insemination I could see the sperm being marketed with focus on the qualities of the source. This is positive eugenics, albeit being driven by individual decisions, and could include genetic screening. Indeed, selection by women of desirable mates is already a kind of eugenics.