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I keep seeing these explanations of “4D chess”. It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing when it comes to economic policies. Unless you be

by prng2021 2y ago

I keep seeing these explanations of “4D chess”. It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing when it comes to economic policies. Unless you believe he can see into the future of how other world leaders would react and consistently outsmart everyone else, there’s no 4D chess being played.

aswanson 2y ago
Occams razor. It's Donald Trump, I've known he was a joke since the late 80s. In middle school. Baffling to see millions of people think reality TV is real and give him nuke codes.
- lttlrck 2y ago
  I knew he was a joke in the lates eighties at middle school - in the UK. Baffling indeed. I am US citizen now - equally baffling on some days...
  - stevenwoo 2y ago
    It's infuriating to rational thought but watching videos of Trump supporters talking about why they support Trump in spite of him hurting them makes it clear where his support comes from - it's a rainbow coalition of the discontented. Obviously the editors will pick the most provocative videos/sound bites but it's a pretty consistent picture.
rescripting 2y ago
This isn’t advanced negotiation tactics, it’s mafia style negotiation tactics, which are 100% in character. See the law firms now providing him with 100s of millions in pro bono work to avoid punitive executive orders.
- spwa4 2y ago
  They never mentioned if they are providing "him" - as in the US government, or "him" as in Donald Trump, 100s of millions in pro Bono work ...
  - pseudalopex 2y ago
    Articles said causes supported by Trump.
- enaaem 2y ago
  Imagine a mob trying to extort you while also stabbing himself and having a beef with the whole city at the same time.
  - imbnwa 2y ago
    Trump didn’t learn like he should’ve when he was under the thumb of Sammy the Bull
unclebucknasty 2y ago
No, it's not 4D chess, and neither is extorting companies with tariffs, extorting law firms with threats of executive orders, or hammering universities by withholding funds. It's all blunt-force checkers that any simpleton with power can easily understand.
hackernewds 2y ago
hard to attribute to competence what you can attribute to malice. just as law firms are being squeezed for $600 million of services through extortion, this is Mafia mentality as well where first something is held hostage and then negotiated for. given the parties involved, I would even assume that there is personal benefits staked in this, and lots of insider trading of course
netsharc 2y ago
I learned that "4D chess" just means, "I see the 3 dimensions, I can't explain what's happening, but I guess they can, because they have that extra dimension.". At this point it's something like 100D chess, because 99 levels of "Why?" have been explained by "because they're morons" but the defenders keep believing there's an extra dimension...
jonplackett 2y ago
Exactly but this is NOT economic policy
fundad 2y ago
Yeah he’s obviously in no state to decide on policy. We don’t know who is running things but it’s not him, a number of factions moving the direction a little bit in their favor whenever they get the opportunity. And of course there is massive insider trading going on too.
- kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 2y ago
  Genuinely curious what your take is on Biden's competency during his presidency.
  - watwut 2y ago
    Waay better.
    - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 2y ago
      Interesting. Even with Biden seemingly confused on stage so often and slurring his words? I'll have to look closer at Trump's public appearances.
  - fundad 2y ago
    My take is Biden sounds old. The sitting president sounds brain-damaged and unquestionably is in no condition to be making such impactful decisions. The wavering we see right now is because the different factions making the decisions are struggling against each other.
derefr 2y ago
What about believing that he's a particularly-easily-manipulated patse (esp. when it comes to things he doesn't care about), and so this is someone else playing 4D chess through him? For all the accusations of fascism, nobody seems to remember that a key feature of fascism is a corporate-cabal shadow government that legitimizes its activities/policies by puppeteering the "real" government to both execute and justify them.
- whatshisface 2y ago
  That's what German industrialists were hoping to achieve through Hitler, but they didn't end up with anything like it.
  - Terr_ 2y ago
    Such as Elon Musk repeating the path and mistakes of Alfred Hugenberg.
  - timeon 2y ago
    Apart from what happened after war, some of them did as they got lot of slave labor during holocaust.
- loudmax 2y ago
  That was more or less the case during Trump's first administration. I think a lot of normie Republicans were hoping for a repeat of that. The ones that aren't in denial are being gravely disappointed.
lo_zamoyski 2y ago
Trump is determined to be remembered by history for his bold moves and "greatness". There is no 4D chess here. There is no such thing as 4D chess. At best, he's using these tariffs as a temporary means to exert pressure and watching how others respond to them, almost like acting like the crazy man with a gun to make people a little more willing to negotiate terms more favorable for the gunman. At least as a matter of intent, anyway. The actual effect is another matter.
belter 2y ago
How can somebody even entertain the idea is able the hold the concept of Chess, much less 4D, while at the same time being aware he nominated Matt Gaetz for Attorney General...Let that sink in for a while... "In 2020, Gaetz was accused of child sex trafficking and statutory rape. After an investigation, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) decided not to charge him. In December 2024, the House Ethics Committee released a report which found evidence that Gaetz paid for sex—including with a 17-year-old—and abused illegal drugs during his tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives."
- goatlover 2y ago
  What matters is loyalty. The chess being played is for full unitary executive power, essentially making Trump an autocrat. Everyone bends the knee to him, or is too powerless or afraid to oppose. Like what has happened with Putin in Russia.
- furyofantares 2y ago
  The worse they are, the worse their other prospects are, and so the less power they have that wasn't granted by Donald Trump. It looks to me like this is about loyalty, which is about Donald Trump gaining more personal power.
  - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
    Classic supervillain mistake - hiring incompetent minions. Sure, they're loyal. But they don't work.
joak 2y ago
Completely agree no 4D chess here. Just a guy that wants to keep the attention on him, one day is kissing Russia's ass, the next day when "peace" is failing, it's tariffs, etc etc no strategy at all, just a show to stay on first page day after day.
- goatlover 2y ago
  It's more than that. What you say is true about his character, but there is also a playbook to keep power. The autocrats copy one another. And he has people like Steven Bannon who are strategizing how he can serve a third term.
spaceman_2020 2y ago
If I was charitable to Trump, I would think that he genuinely wants to move manufacturing back to the US, and is likely being supported by the military faction of the government. There is a decent chance of a hot war with China in the future, and you really can’t win wars if you can’t build stuff at home quickly. As things currently stand, China can vastly out produce America in the event of a war
- jliptzin 2y ago
  A war with China would be over in about 15 min with both sides utterly destroyed
1659447091 2y ago
> It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing He knows exactly what he is doing[0], and the rest is designed to distract voters from noticing [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43661680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43661680 [0] https://www.dataandpolitics.net/70-million-in-60-seconds-how-insider-information-helped-someone-28x-their-money/ https://www.dataandpolitics.net/70-million-in-60-seconds-how...
jpster 2y ago
What I don’t understand is why Scott Bessent is going along with these harebrained schemes. He supposedly was the big brain genius who devised the trading scheme that George Soros used to break the pound. Surely he anticipated the outcome of Trump’s plan. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

aswanson 2y ago

Occams razor. It's Donald Trump, I've known he was a joke since the late 80s. In middle school. Baffling to see millions of people think reality TV is real and give him nuke codes.

lttlrck 2y ago
I knew he was a joke in the lates eighties at middle school - in the UK. Baffling indeed. I am US citizen now - equally baffling on some days...
- stevenwoo 2y ago
  It's infuriating to rational thought but watching videos of Trump supporters talking about why they support Trump in spite of him hurting them makes it clear where his support comes from - it's a rainbow coalition of the discontented. Obviously the editors will pick the most provocative videos/sound bites but it's a pretty consistent picture.

rescripting 2y ago

This isn’t advanced negotiation tactics, it’s mafia style negotiation tactics, which are 100% in character. See the law firms now providing him with 100s of millions in pro bono work to avoid punitive executive orders.

spwa4 2y ago
They never mentioned if they are providing "him" - as in the US government, or "him" as in Donald Trump, 100s of millions in pro Bono work ...
- pseudalopex 2y ago
  Articles said causes supported by Trump.
enaaem 2y ago
Imagine a mob trying to extort you while also stabbing himself and having a beef with the whole city at the same time.
- imbnwa 2y ago
  Trump didn’t learn like he should’ve when he was under the thumb of Sammy the Bull

unclebucknasty 2y ago

No, it's not 4D chess, and neither is extorting companies with tariffs, extorting law firms with threats of executive orders, or hammering universities by withholding funds. It's all blunt-force checkers that any simpleton with power can easily understand.

hackernewds 2y ago

hard to attribute to competence what you can attribute to malice. just as law firms are being squeezed for $600 million of services through extortion, this is Mafia mentality as well where first something is held hostage and then negotiated for. given the parties involved, I would even assume that there is personal benefits staked in this, and lots of insider trading of course

netsharc 2y ago

I learned that "4D chess" just means, "I see the 3 dimensions, I can't explain what's happening, but I guess they can, because they have that extra dimension.". At this point it's something like 100D chess, because 99 levels of "Why?" have been explained by "because they're morons" but the defenders keep believing there's an extra dimension...

jonplackett 2y ago

Exactly but this is NOT economic policy

fundad 2y ago

Yeah he’s obviously in no state to decide on policy. We don’t know who is running things but it’s not him, a number of factions moving the direction a little bit in their favor whenever they get the opportunity. And of course there is massive insider trading going on too.

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 2y ago
Genuinely curious what your take is on Biden's competency during his presidency.
- watwut 2y ago
  Waay better.
  - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 2y ago
    Interesting. Even with Biden seemingly confused on stage so often and slurring his words? I'll have to look closer at Trump's public appearances.
- fundad 2y ago
  My take is Biden sounds old. The sitting president sounds brain-damaged and unquestionably is in no condition to be making such impactful decisions. The wavering we see right now is because the different factions making the decisions are struggling against each other.

derefr 2y ago

What about believing that he's a particularly-easily-manipulated patse (esp. when it comes to things he doesn't care about), and so this is someone else playing 4D chess through him? For all the accusations of fascism, nobody seems to remember that a key feature of fascism is a corporate-cabal shadow government that legitimizes its activities/policies by puppeteering the "real" government to both execute and justify them.

whatshisface 2y ago
That's what German industrialists were hoping to achieve through Hitler, but they didn't end up with anything like it.
- Terr_ 2y ago
  Such as Elon Musk repeating the path and mistakes of Alfred Hugenberg.
- timeon 2y ago
  Apart from what happened after war, some of them did as they got lot of slave labor during holocaust.
loudmax 2y ago
That was more or less the case during Trump's first administration. I think a lot of normie Republicans were hoping for a repeat of that. The ones that aren't in denial are being gravely disappointed.

lo_zamoyski 2y ago

Trump is determined to be remembered by history for his bold moves and "greatness". There is no 4D chess here. There is no such thing as 4D chess. At best, he's using these tariffs as a temporary means to exert pressure and watching how others respond to them, almost like acting like the crazy man with a gun to make people a little more willing to negotiate terms more favorable for the gunman. At least as a matter of intent, anyway. The actual effect is another matter.

belter 2y ago

How can somebody even entertain the idea is able the hold the concept of Chess, much less 4D, while at the same time being aware he nominated Matt Gaetz for Attorney General...Let that sink in for a while... "In 2020, Gaetz was accused of child sex trafficking and statutory rape. After an investigation, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) decided not to charge him. In December 2024, the House Ethics Committee released a report which found evidence that Gaetz paid for sex—including with a 17-year-old—and abused illegal drugs during his tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives."

goatlover 2y ago
What matters is loyalty. The chess being played is for full unitary executive power, essentially making Trump an autocrat. Everyone bends the knee to him, or is too powerless or afraid to oppose. Like what has happened with Putin in Russia.
furyofantares 2y ago
The worse they are, the worse their other prospects are, and so the less power they have that wasn't granted by Donald Trump. It looks to me like this is about loyalty, which is about Donald Trump gaining more personal power.
- AnimalMuppet 1y ago
  Classic supervillain mistake - hiring incompetent minions. Sure, they're loyal. But they don't work.

joak 2y ago

Completely agree no 4D chess here. Just a guy that wants to keep the attention on him, one day is kissing Russia's ass, the next day when "peace" is failing, it's tariffs, etc etc no strategy at all, just a show to stay on first page day after day.

goatlover 2y ago
It's more than that. What you say is true about his character, but there is also a playbook to keep power. The autocrats copy one another. And he has people like Steven Bannon who are strategizing how he can serve a third term.

spaceman_2020 2y ago

If I was charitable to Trump, I would think that he genuinely wants to move manufacturing back to the US, and is likely being supported by the military faction of the government. There is a decent chance of a hot war with China in the future, and you really can’t win wars if you can’t build stuff at home quickly. As things currently stand, China can vastly out produce America in the event of a war

jliptzin 2y ago
A war with China would be over in about 15 min with both sides utterly destroyed

1659447091 2y ago

> It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing He knows exactly what he is doing[0], and the rest is designed to distract voters from noticing [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43661680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43661680 [0] https://www.dataandpolitics.net/70-million-in-60-seconds-how-insider-information-helped-someone-28x-their-money/ https://www.dataandpolitics.net/70-million-in-60-seconds-how...

jpster 2y ago

What I don’t understand is why Scott Bessent is going along with these harebrained schemes. He supposedly was the big brain genius who devised the trading scheme that George Soros used to break the pound. Surely he anticipated the outcome of Trump’s plan. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday