6 ms·
"Shoving content into the faces of an indiscriminating userbase" maximizes eyeball time which maximizes ad dollars. Netflix's financials are a bit more opaque b
by setgree 1y ago
"Shoving content into the faces of an indiscriminating userbase" maximizes eyeball time which maximizes ad dollars. Netflix's financials are a bit more opaque but I think that's the key driver of the carcinisation story here, the thing for which "what the median user wants" is ultimately a proxy.
Likewise, all social media converges on one model. Strava, which started out a weirder platform for serious athletes, is now is just an infinity scroll with DMs [0]
I do however think that this is an important insight:
> This isn't to say that most people are tasteless blobs; I think everyone is a connoisseur of something, it's just that for any given individual, that something probably isn't your product.
A lot of these companies probably were founded by people who wanted to cater to connoisseurs, but something about the financials of SaaS companies makes scaling to the ad-maximizing format a kind of destiny.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/style/strava-messaging.htm https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/style/strava-messaging.ht...
- donatj 1y ago> "Shoving content into the faces of an indiscriminating userbase" maximizes eyeball time which maximizes ad dollars I mean that's not really the case for paid services without ads like Netflix. They lose money the more you watch. Ideally you'd continue to pay for the subscription but never watch anything.
- mattnewton 1y agoThe marginal cost to serve you more videos is real, but it’s negligible compared to the fixed costs or cost of people not re-subscribing. So I assume that people at Netflix were optimizing for usage/engagement just like the ad driven services as a proxy for subscribe rate.
- agent281 1y agoI wonder how much the workforce plays into it. If you have a bunch of people who work at companies that are trying to maximize eyeballs then they shuffle around to different companies, are they going to adopt the goals of the new company? Or is their existing perspective and skills going to shape the new company? I imagine it's a bit of both. Given how big Google and Meta are and how much talent circulates among big tech companies, this might cause companies to lean a bit more heavily into the attention economy than they might otherwise need to. Also, attention is just easier to measure than satisfaction. Makes it easier to fall down that path.
- swiftcoder 1y ago> Also, attention is just easier to measure than satisfaction This is a big part of it. Measuring how long someone stares at the screen is easy. It is in many cases a reasonable proxy for satisfaction - provided you mostly only care about the user as a source of revenue. The social medias have demonstrated fairly concretely that it's a poor proxy if you care about the user's wellbeing. But they already got their bag, so they are hardly incentivised to fix that now.
- lovich 1y agoI wouldn’t say they are hardly incentivized now. They were never incentivized. What company cares about a users well being? The only companies that might care are ones where the population growth rate of humanity is the bottleneck on their new user acquisition and those companies are slowly morphing into sovereign nations already
- swiftcoder 1y agoIndeed. It was however expedient to pay lip service to the idea of promoting user wellbeing at various times (i.e. shortly post-Cambridge analytica at Facebook)
- kridsdale3 1y agoI used to own a part of the Facebook homepage and maximizing its metrics was my job. They told us they cared about wellbeing. I made a feature that demonstrably improved wellbeing, and we had lots of data and surveys etc to prove it. But it decreased watch-time on shortform (what we used to call TikTok style) videos so the Director made me delete it. That started my disillusionment process that eventually made me quit. Money is the only thing that matters to them.
- swiftcoder 1y agoYeah, I was working at Oculus when the wellbeing narrative started to fall apart across Meta. Was a good time to get out.
- crazygringo 1y agoThis is the correct answer. The more you watch, the less likely you are to unsubscribe. If you haven't watched a streamer in a couple of months, that's the first thing you'll cancel when you glance at your credit card statement.
- bluGill 1y agoNetflix could probably get enough goodwill by just automatically not charging people who didn't use their service at all as to be worth it. No hassle, we just keep rolling your subscription over until you watch something again (of course they make interest in the month you paid but didn't use services - that $0.05 should pay for the email and other infrastructure costs needed for a customer that doesn't even use the service). The real benefit of this is when someone does watch something there is no hassle - they are already subscribed and so they don't even think about should the re subscribe. Of course with their ad supported tier they probably don't agree.
- crazygringo 1y agoI think they already remind you after a year of inactivity, and automatically cancel your plan after 2 years of inactivity. But they're a business, so obviously they want you to use it and pay for it.
- NoMoreNicksLeft 1y ago>Netflix could probably get enough goodwill by just automatically not charging people who didn't use their service at all as to be worth it. Is there a circumstance that could cause their stock price to drop to $0 more quickly?
- dowager_dan99 1y agoThis is the correct mental model. Minor COGS increase < Churn.
- lotsofpulp 1y agoAds are embedded into the media Netflix sells. See almost any car chase scene, either wholly unnecessary or unnecessarily long to advertise the car brand, many times with the actors’ speaking lines solely to advertise the car. Even critically acclaimed shows like Slow Horses from a supposedly prestige media seller like Apple has scenes where you watch actors put on AirPods Max headphones (obviously with no relevance to the plot). More accurate is “streaming without discrete ad breaks.”
- bigstrat2003 1y ago> More accurate is “streaming without discrete ad breaks.” Yes, or as people call it: "ad-free". We all know what is meant by that phrase, being pedantic about "well actually there are ads regardless" doesn't make communication clearer.
- cess11 1y agoWhat would you call actually ad-free broadcasts then?
- 20after4 1y agoPropaganda?
- cess11 1y agoHow did you arrive at this proposal? Is the Mona Lisa propaganda because she isn't holding a branded flask with snake oil?
- erikerikson 1y agoGP responded to a comment about broadcasts, not paintings. I think the GP wasn't so far off. If you are not selling products you are still presenting viewpoints, experiences, and ideas.
- eadmund 1y ago> Ideally you'd continue to pay for the subscription but never watch anything. I think that’s Netflix’s actual goal: deliver nothing anyone wants to watch, but keep on promising the possibility of something one might want to watch in the future. Which reminds me, we really need to cancel our subscriptions.
- echelon 1y ago> Which reminds me, we really need to cancel our subscriptions. A subscription service to cancel and renew your subscriptions. And stretch goal: annually renegotiate your utility bill so it doesn't 4-10X in cost each winter (for those that live in states that can do that).
- abustamam 1y agoThat's pretty much Rocket Money https://www.rocketmoney.com/ https://www.rocketmoney.com/
- Suppafly 1y agoDoes it actually work?
- derefr 1y agoIn a limited sense, yes. But in spirit, you would probably only describe it as truly "working" (in the sense of accomplishing its claimed purpose) if as soon as it ran out of things to suggest cancelling, it suggested cancelling itself. Which it doesn't. So no. Same as a dating site/app — a dating system truly designed in spirit to accomplish its claimed purpose, would seek to minimize the time anyone spends using the app before uninstalling it. And no such site/app exists. (Although it could — as this is basically the business model of a professional matchmaker, where you pay a large lump sum up-front and then they're beholden to do unbounded work to find you a happy relationship. So they seek to minimize how much of their time you spend, by finding you that happy relationship ASAP.)
- dcrazy 1y agoNetflix’s ad-supported tier makes so much more money per user than their ad-free tier that they had to raise the price of the ad-free tier to make it competitive on ARPU.
- feoren 1y agoBut those two tiers are not really competing with each other, are they? I'd wager that most people are fixed in one group: either they will never watch anything with ads (e.g. me), or they just don't care about seeing ads. The former group will never switch to the ad-supported tier -- they'll just cancel if the price gets too high -- so the only calculation is price vs. retention among that group. Similarly, the latter group will never pay extra for ad-free, so it's a completely different calculation. Why are the two prices in competition?
- abustamam 1y agoI guess I'm weird because I pay for Netflix/HBO for no ads, but I'm on the ad supported tier for Peacock and Hulu. I guess it's just what I'm used to (I don't expect to see ads on Netflix, but I do expect to see them on Hulu)
- feoren 1y agoIs there a price point where you'd switch between the two tiers for those services? I mean, I guess if they were literally the same cost.
- abustamam 1y agoGood question. I think it's really just status quo. I got Peacock for free thru Xfinity and it was ad supported, but when I left Xfinity I just kept the same tier. Same with Hulu; my wife had ad Hulu before we got married and when we merged finances I had to reason to upgrade. But Netflix/HBO with ads just seems weird to me.
- nonameiguess 1y ago
- hennell 1y ago>Ideally you'd continue to pay for the subscription but never watch anything. There's a good planet money episode about the economy of gyms. Many really want members, not users. But members who never used would (eventually) cancel. So some had massage chairs in reception or free pizza slice tuesdays to keep the people who rarely came to work out feeling like they were still using the gym, forgetting it was just for a slice of pizza... If there's nothing on netflix people will cancel netflix. So you want them to watch a few exclusive shows a year so they feel like they got their money's worth, while not actually costing netflix much.
- hinkley 1y agoThere were people who only had HBO subscriptions to watch the new season of Westworld. Given they merged with Cinemax I’m not sure if that worked out for them. But there were also Apple+ subscriptions just to watch Ted Lasso. And I begrudgingly got Prime to watch the Expanse. But when I bought the full seasons it was from Apple. I’m sure Bezos still ended up with most of that money but at least some of it went to Apple instead.
- Fripplebubby 1y ago> So you want them to watch a few exclusive shows a year so they feel like they got their money's worth, while not actually costing netflix much. No, that's not what the strategy is and they're quite open about it - the strategy is to maximize user consumption for every user, because that keeps them subscribed. I think a lot of people think that they use sophisticated analytics and machine learning etc to decide what to greenlight, but they don't. They use the judgment (and politics, and egos) of Hollywood studio executives (and often the same Hollywood execs that a few years ago were employed in "legacy" media). Although I will grant that they've been innovative in producing/distributing international content, this is really just globalization and labor arbitrage (it is cheaper produce content not in Hollywood, that's not news - they just spend the extra $$$ localizing international content to different global target distribution markets but again, this flow has happened forever, it's just typically been Hollywood -> localization -> foreign market rather than foreign production -> localization -> Anglophone market). Where analytics and ML does come into play is deciding which things out of their enormous catalogue they push to individual users at any one time - that process is highly reactive, individualized, dynamic - that's why strange and seemingly random media become big hits on Netflix while being largely ignored by the commentariat, and vice versa, why series with dedicated fanbases don't get renewed (the analytics tell you that, despite the apparent success, further investment will not improve user engagement with the platform by enough to be worth the spend).
- hinkley 1y agoI can’t believe I’m saying this, but Netflix would probably be better if it learned a few lessons from gyms. I have to go wash my mouth out now. Brb. Some of these companies are trying to go for status now as well. They’re trying to strengthen their brands by picking up epic storylines and making them into the show everyone is watching. Only Netflix is chickenshit and they haven’t figured out that nobody watches the first season of a Netflix show until the second is announced because they know Netflix cancels shows all the fucking time. Which means Netflix cancels more shows because the numbers are terrible. What they should be doing is test audiences. If those people hate it, then yes cancel. And be patient with everything else.
- Suppafly 1y ago>Only Netflix is chickenshit and they haven’t figured out that nobody watches the first season of a Netflix show until the second is announced because they know Netflix cancels shows all the fucking time. What's funny is that HBO is worse about that, but everyone watches the new HBO shows because they are big budget and look really appealing. Netflix is also really bad about taking way too long to make additional seasons even if they announce them it's still forever before they come out.
- dowager_dan99 1y ago>> but everyone watches the new HBO shows because they are big budget and look really appealing. This doesn't feel as true anymore. There's still the odd HBO blockbuster but they're producing a lot more garbage as they search for the next hit. And they're not immune to the Marvel approach of strip mining a profitable franchise well past there being any gold left.
- hinkley 1y agoMaybe it's confirmation bias, in that I'm interested in the pitch for fewer HBO shows and so I don't feel it when they get cancelled after a half-assed attempt. Netflix shouldn't bother signing shows without a 2 year contract at this point.
- yibg 1y agoNot directly, the there is a strong correlation between use of the product and retention. Ideally yes users that pay but don't use are the best, but those are rare. The cost of delivering the service on an incremental basis is also low. So all in all, they want users to be using the product as much as possible.
- badc0ffee 1y agoI think your link is broken (missing the l in html) and should point here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/style/strava-messaging.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/style/strava-messaging.ht...
- NoMoreNicksLeft 1y ago>"Shoving content into the faces of an indiscriminating userbase" maximizes eyeball time which maximizes ad dollars. Netflix's financials are a bit more opaque but I think that's the key driver of the carcinisation story here, Non sequitur. For the longest time, Netflix had no advertisements. Do they even now? (I don't subscribe... all their shows end up on my Plex anyway.)
- croemer 1y agoNYT link goes 404, here it is fixed: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/style/strava-messaging.html?smid=nytcore-android-share https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/style/strava-messaging.ht...