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Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're

by slg 2y ago

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

muzani 2y ago
A lot of this stuff is on a YouTube education level, not even a degree. I would be shocked if the US does not have a bunch of economic advisors who tell them what problems there are and what should be done. They've probably mapped out all the next steps. Most US presidents are Harvard-level smart, but the White House has been around long enough to find a way to deliver reports to the simpler ones. There's a lot of obvious big problems - confidence in the USD, debt rising faster than GDP can catch up, military overextension, China's rise outpacing US, inequality, inaccessible education and health care, opioid crisis, etc. Trump has a good eye for identifying this - that's why he won the election despite all his weaknesses. It's clear he knows some of this but doesn't understand it - his comments on a BRICS currency, for example. Yes, a "BRICS currency" would threaten Pax Americana but it's on literally nobody's mind. I feel like, if anything, he's an overplanner. A smarter leader would think, these moves will have unplanned side effects. Trump makes a lot of roundabout moves like DOGE. These moves have a target, but he hasn't thought about the side effects. And when a crisis like COVID hits, it disrupts the complex plans, which is why he reacts so poorly to them.
- shigawire 2y ago
  >I feel like, if anything, he's an overplanner. Trump is famous for ad libbing and making up whatever he wants in the moment. His first administration was not prepared to govern. I'm not sure how this is seen as over planning.
- slg 2y ago
  This just reads like pure fantasy to me. Have you not seen the account from numerous former Cabinet and White House officials about how lazy and incurious he is or how difficult it is to get him to read the reports put in front of him? Have you missed the way he has forced countless career officials out of the government through layoffs, firings, or pushing people to resign in protest? I don’t even know what to say to the idea that Trump is an “overplanner”, you even literally said “he hasn't thought about the side effects” a few sentences later. That’s “overplanning”?
  - muzani 2y ago
    I'm saying he thinks 4 steps ahead but not the next step.
    - slg 2y ago
      I don't know how that is supposed to work or counts as an "overplanner". That sounds to me more like someone who has goals but doesn't actually have a plan on how to reach that goal.
    - staunton 2y ago
      That sounds contradictory and doesn't make sense to me...
    - Anthony-G 2y ago
      I can’t help but think of the classic Southpark 4-step plan – just with a missing Step 2 as well as Step 3. 1. Step 1 2. ??? 3. ??? 4. Profit! https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/profit https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/profit
- iugtmkbdfil834 2y ago
  << I would be shocked if the US does not have a bunch of economic advisors who tell them Oh, US does have its share of economic advisors[1] of all stripes. And, I would love to be corrected on this, when SHTF, they immediately argue for NOT the very thing they normally argue for. They can tell what should be done for sure.. just not when it comes to their money.. (edit)Therein lies the issue or at least a part of the it. [1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/12/larry-summers-says-now-is-not-the-time-for-moral-hazard-lectures-about-bailouts/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/12/larry-summ...
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
Herring 2y ago
[flagged]
- dmonitor 2y ago
  That's not it at all. I'm sure there's lots of sycophants out there, but a lot of people just don't find "he's stupid and it's random" a satisfying explanation for his actions, even if they disagree with them.
  - Herring 2y ago
    That's weird, cause they sure smeared millions of people real fast as undesirables trans/illegals/DEI/woke, but Trump gets a million chances and coup do-overs and please explain take your time sir: What is the amazing 4D strategy behind telling people to drink bleach? Nepotism feels good all the way until it sinks your company.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
gsanderson 2y ago
Baffles me too. His ignorance is astonishing.
mrandish 2y ago
> Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? Since I'm one of 'those people' who's been willing to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt in the past, I'll respond with my take. tl;dr Trump's handling of the tariffs have been such disaster, there's simply no possibility it was based on a strategically sound plan. So, in answer to your question, this episode has caused me to substantially foreclose my prior willingness to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt. To be clear, while I've tried to remain open-minded re: Trump I've never felt that he's especially smart and certainly not someone I'd ever personally like or hang out with but I'm also one of those contrarians who doesn't think every politician or public figure needs to be someone I personally like or approve of in a moral sense. I've also been willing to concede that some things done by the executive branch during his first term were generally positive (whether because of or in spite of Trump isn't clear). I also think his policies and statements have been subject to an unprecedented degree of negative spin in the media - sometimes well-deserved but always hyped overwhelmingly to the negative. So I made an effort to look past the constant headlines of, essentially, "orange man bad in all possible ways." I also decided to ignore Trump's own bizarrely extreme pronouncements and focus only on what he really put into practice and, most importantly, the tangible real-world impact of those actions on the broad population and economy over time (not the extrapolated predictions in the media). However, even to me, how he's handled this tariff thing has been a complete shit show. I've spent a fair bit of time trying to understand the various explanations, contextualizations and even 'hidden grand plan' theories proposed by some and they simply aren't plausible. It's not a 'master negotiator strategy' because he asked for concessions but never made any concrete proposals of quid pro quo. There was no attempt at serious negotiation with most major trading partners (according to the WSJ) and thus no possibility of meaningful deals. Now suddenly (somewhat) reversing course like this a few days after going so extreme and then publicly doubling down on his long-term commitment to the 'grand strategy' is unbelievably damaging to any remaining shred of credibility his administration may have had. It nukes any possibility that he was doing a 'crazy guy on the subway' strategy of punching his adversaries in the face and making them believe he was so nuts he'd saw off his own arm just to keep beating them over the head with it - all to cleverly convince them to make meaningful concessions they'd never make any other way. Yeah, well now that he blinked in less than a week, nothing he can do will ever make them believe that. I mean, if that was the plan, it was a terrible plan and poorly executed to boot, but flipping like this is even worse. All I can figure is that it was a 'crazy guy' plan but that he intended to keep it going for several months and then, when his opponents were bloodied enough he'd open negotiations and "win" in a master stroke. Except he completely miscalculated the degree of economic destruction he'd cause in U.S. markets and has now had to not only fold but reveal he was playing a weak bluff all along. I'm struggling to come up with any way this could have been worse for the U.S. and Trump's interests. After this, it's hard to imagine any trading partner negotiating in good faith, or perhaps, at all with Trump over tariffs in the next 90 days. The only rational strategy for them is to play along and gather info while conceding nothing meaningful and simply wait and see what Trump's ultimately going to do long term. As far as I'm concerned, I bent over backward to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt and give him a chance to prove himself but the tariffs have been so bungled they're impossible to put it in any positive light. So far, it appears to be an epic disaster of hubris and naive miscalculation.
probably_wrong 2y ago
I don't think that Trump himself is competent, but I'm not be so sure about the people around him. The effort it took to put him above the law was at least a decade in the making, so clearly someone knows what they're doing. I don't think it's a coincidence, for instance, that Steve Banon's strategy of "flooding the zone" looks exactly as the type of chaos currently coming from the White House.
marcosdumay 2y ago
I dunno. Somebody literally wrote a guidebook for him to follow, but I haven't even glanced over it. The stuff I've seen people quote from the book have all been stupid, but the kind of stupidity seems to be a "do X, so you'll get Y" where "Y" is really bad and the author thinks it's good. So I guess I do expect some kind of coherence from him. That said, I don't remember anybody claiming Project 25 talks about tariffs.
- sdenton4 2y ago
  Here you go... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025#:~:text=Project%202025%20is%20split%20on,of%20its%20major%20trading%20partners. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025#:~:text=Project...
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    Well, looks like it's divided between carefully placing tariffs or extinguishing them all. So yeah, this one action is completely off the book.

by slg 2y ago

muzani 2y ago

A lot of this stuff is on a YouTube education level, not even a degree. I would be shocked if the US does not have a bunch of economic advisors who tell them what problems there are and what should be done. They've probably mapped out all the next steps. Most US presidents are Harvard-level smart, but the White House has been around long enough to find a way to deliver reports to the simpler ones. There's a lot of obvious big problems - confidence in the USD, debt rising faster than GDP can catch up, military overextension, China's rise outpacing US, inequality, inaccessible education and health care, opioid crisis, etc. Trump has a good eye for identifying this - that's why he won the election despite all his weaknesses. It's clear he knows some of this but doesn't understand it - his comments on a BRICS currency, for example. Yes, a "BRICS currency" would threaten Pax Americana but it's on literally nobody's mind. I feel like, if anything, he's an overplanner. A smarter leader would think, these moves will have unplanned side effects. Trump makes a lot of roundabout moves like DOGE. These moves have a target, but he hasn't thought about the side effects. And when a crisis like COVID hits, it disrupts the complex plans, which is why he reacts so poorly to them.

shigawire 2y ago
>I feel like, if anything, he's an overplanner. Trump is famous for ad libbing and making up whatever he wants in the moment. His first administration was not prepared to govern. I'm not sure how this is seen as over planning.
slg 2y ago
This just reads like pure fantasy to me. Have you not seen the account from numerous former Cabinet and White House officials about how lazy and incurious he is or how difficult it is to get him to read the reports put in front of him? Have you missed the way he has forced countless career officials out of the government through layoffs, firings, or pushing people to resign in protest? I don’t even know what to say to the idea that Trump is an “overplanner”, you even literally said “he hasn't thought about the side effects” a few sentences later. That’s “overplanning”?
- muzani 2y ago
  I'm saying he thinks 4 steps ahead but not the next step.
  - slg 2y ago
    I don't know how that is supposed to work or counts as an "overplanner". That sounds to me more like someone who has goals but doesn't actually have a plan on how to reach that goal.
  - staunton 2y ago
    That sounds contradictory and doesn't make sense to me...
  - Anthony-G 2y ago
    I can’t help but think of the classic Southpark 4-step plan – just with a missing Step 2 as well as Step 3. 1. Step 1 2. ??? 3. ??? 4. Profit! https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/profit https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/profit
iugtmkbdfil834 2y ago
<< I would be shocked if the US does not have a bunch of economic advisors who tell them Oh, US does have its share of economic advisors[1] of all stripes. And, I would love to be corrected on this, when SHTF, they immediately argue for NOT the very thing they normally argue for. They can tell what should be done for sure.. just not when it comes to their money.. (edit)Therein lies the issue or at least a part of the it. [1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/12/larry-summers-says-now-is-not-the-time-for-moral-hazard-lectures-about-bailouts/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/12/larry-summ...
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

Herring 2y ago

[flagged]

dmonitor 2y ago
That's not it at all. I'm sure there's lots of sycophants out there, but a lot of people just don't find "he's stupid and it's random" a satisfying explanation for his actions, even if they disagree with them.
- Herring 2y ago
  That's weird, cause they sure smeared millions of people real fast as undesirables trans/illegals/DEI/woke, but Trump gets a million chances and coup do-overs and please explain take your time sir: What is the amazing 4D strategy behind telling people to drink bleach? Nepotism feels good all the way until it sinks your company.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

gsanderson 2y ago

Baffles me too. His ignorance is astonishing.

mrandish 2y ago

> Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? Since I'm one of 'those people' who's been willing to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt in the past, I'll respond with my take. tl;dr Trump's handling of the tariffs have been such disaster, there's simply no possibility it was based on a strategically sound plan. So, in answer to your question, this episode has caused me to substantially foreclose my prior willingness to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt. To be clear, while I've tried to remain open-minded re: Trump I've never felt that he's especially smart and certainly not someone I'd ever personally like or hang out with but I'm also one of those contrarians who doesn't think every politician or public figure needs to be someone I personally like or approve of in a moral sense. I've also been willing to concede that some things done by the executive branch during his first term were generally positive (whether because of or in spite of Trump isn't clear). I also think his policies and statements have been subject to an unprecedented degree of negative spin in the media - sometimes well-deserved but always hyped overwhelmingly to the negative. So I made an effort to look past the constant headlines of, essentially, "orange man bad in all possible ways." I also decided to ignore Trump's own bizarrely extreme pronouncements and focus only on what he really put into practice and, most importantly, the tangible real-world impact of those actions on the broad population and economy over time (not the extrapolated predictions in the media). However, even to me, how he's handled this tariff thing has been a complete shit show. I've spent a fair bit of time trying to understand the various explanations, contextualizations and even 'hidden grand plan' theories proposed by some and they simply aren't plausible. It's not a 'master negotiator strategy' because he asked for concessions but never made any concrete proposals of quid pro quo. There was no attempt at serious negotiation with most major trading partners (according to the WSJ) and thus no possibility of meaningful deals. Now suddenly (somewhat) reversing course like this a few days after going so extreme and then publicly doubling down on his long-term commitment to the 'grand strategy' is unbelievably damaging to any remaining shred of credibility his administration may have had. It nukes any possibility that he was doing a 'crazy guy on the subway' strategy of punching his adversaries in the face and making them believe he was so nuts he'd saw off his own arm just to keep beating them over the head with it - all to cleverly convince them to make meaningful concessions they'd never make any other way. Yeah, well now that he blinked in less than a week, nothing he can do will ever make them believe that. I mean, if that was the plan, it was a terrible plan and poorly executed to boot, but flipping like this is even worse. All I can figure is that it was a 'crazy guy' plan but that he intended to keep it going for several months and then, when his opponents were bloodied enough he'd open negotiations and "win" in a master stroke. Except he completely miscalculated the degree of economic destruction he'd cause in U.S. markets and has now had to not only fold but reveal he was playing a weak bluff all along. I'm struggling to come up with any way this could have been worse for the U.S. and Trump's interests. After this, it's hard to imagine any trading partner negotiating in good faith, or perhaps, at all with Trump over tariffs in the next 90 days. The only rational strategy for them is to play along and gather info while conceding nothing meaningful and simply wait and see what Trump's ultimately going to do long term. As far as I'm concerned, I bent over backward to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt and give him a chance to prove himself but the tariffs have been so bungled they're impossible to put it in any positive light. So far, it appears to be an epic disaster of hubris and naive miscalculation.

probably_wrong 2y ago

I don't think that Trump himself is competent, but I'm not be so sure about the people around him. The effort it took to put him above the law was at least a decade in the making, so clearly someone knows what they're doing. I don't think it's a coincidence, for instance, that Steve Banon's strategy of "flooding the zone" looks exactly as the type of chaos currently coming from the White House.

marcosdumay 2y ago

I dunno. Somebody literally wrote a guidebook for him to follow, but I haven't even glanced over it. The stuff I've seen people quote from the book have all been stupid, but the kind of stupidity seems to be a "do X, so you'll get Y" where "Y" is really bad and the author thinks it's good. So I guess I do expect some kind of coherence from him. That said, I don't remember anybody claiming Project 25 talks about tariffs.

sdenton4 2y ago
Here you go... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025#:~:text=Project%202025%20is%20split%20on,of%20its%20major%20trading%20partners. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025#:~:text=Project...
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  Well, looks like it's divided between carefully placing tariffs or extinguishing them all. So yeah, this one action is completely off the book.