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Manufacturing will start coming back based on the high tariffs just with two big caveats. 1. Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. This is a software f

Manufacturing will start coming back based on the high tariffs just with two big caveats. 1. Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. This is a software forum where changes are made at lighting speed. Manufacturing requires capital, years, and will. In software it might take a day to make an obvious change. Manufacturing hopefully 6 months. Working with physical systems takes time. 2. Manufacturing does not mean jobs. It will be automated with a fifth or less required to setup and maintain. Some technical jobs will come back, but nothing like what has been said. The tariffs initially put in place will have the same level of effects as a war. This is At Covid levels. The effects take time, inventories are getting sold. You are responding to the news not the effects give it a few weeks for company CEOs to get through the meetings that their employees are pushing up the chains. Outside of all of that. The biggest issue is consistency of action which this admin squirellllll.

NoMoreNicksLeft 2y ago
> Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. Trump has 4 years if he survives that long. He's an old man. The trade war can't possibly last long enough for manufacturing to be forced to restart domestically. Even if this was his first term and he got a second, by the time the second rolls around everyone would just hope to wait it out until the Democrats retook the White House and they could import everything from China again. But now no one can even make the argument and be taken seriously that we need this, because if Trump's doing trade wars then it must be a bad idea.
- walterbell 2y ago
  > hope to wait it out This investment thesis is about to be tested at scale.
- markus_zhang 2y ago
  IMO if Trump is serious about bringing manufacturing back to US, his No.1 job is to remove all middle-high managers from all government agencies. The whole government has been bathing in the globalization alcohol for so many years that there is a huge interest group rooted for it to go forever. You can't do much without removing this group. There is no "legal", "orderly" retreat from the current situation IMHO. It's going to be messy. The issue is whether Trump is doing the job or he is just faking it for whatever the reasons.
  - pjc50 2y ago
    > There is no "legal", "orderly" retreat from the current situation IMHO. It's going to be messy. .. so what's the point of this again?
    - markus_zhang 2y ago
      What's the point of what?
      - pjc50 2y ago
        The "retreat" (in which direction) from the "current situation" (US richest country in the world, as they keep reminding us "Europoors"). What's the US supposed to look like after this purge?
        markus_zhang 2y ago
        (just a disclaimer that I do not agree or disagree with this bringing back manufacturing to the US, the discussion is solely based on the supposition that Trump wants to bring it back) Once the purge is done in the public and private sectors (yeah you can imagine that such interest groups exist everywhere), Trump and his allies need to install competitive people to create and execute policies to "bring manufacturing back". Failing either of the two (purging and reinstalling competitive policy makers) fails the job.
        NoMoreNicksLeft 2y ago
        Rich in what, exactly? Inflated stock prices? Inflated home prices? Empty processed-food calories? Are we the richest in recently-built public infrastructure or intellectual property (or both!!)? Maybe we're the richest in collateralized debt obligations? No one in the United States feels rich, when we look around, we don't see wealth or prosperity. We suspect, though we'd feel silly to say it out loud, that if anyone ever busted into Fort Knox and looked in the vaults, those would be empty of the gold that it was once famous for. >What's the US supposed to look like after this purge? I imagine we'll look like what we really have been for a long while, instead of this illusion that everyone has of us.
- robertjpayne 2y ago
  It's not even necessarily 4 years. If the economy crashes hard there's a very real possibility of a Democratic congress that takes control of tariffing away from the President and removes all of this nonsense. That election is only 18 months away.
- alabastervlog 2y ago
  Besides, all the "I'm tariffing! Maybe not. I'm tariffing! I'm super serious this time! Maybe not" leading up to this destroyed confidence that these'll even be fully implemented—the tariffs are still rolling out, and will be until early next month. And if implemented, will he keep them going? Month after month? I don't think most people with capital believe it. Proof of the uncertainty is that Wall Street clearly thinks there's a good chance he'll back off. That's why the market still has room to keep falling, rather than having already fallen as far as it will for a while. It's got a lot of room left. All that room is people betting he's not going to keep this up.
ferguess_k 2y ago
I think they will more or less add some jobs at least, which is fine. But I don't think there is going to be any political will unless the necessity pushes people to demand it.
ryandrake 2y ago
> Manufacturing does not mean jobs. Exactly. I think a lot of people who say they "want manufacturing to come back to the USA" have a picture in their imagination of a 1950s factory employing hundreds of middle class people standing along an assembly line picking up parts with their hands and working on them, or turning bolts on a car as it goes down the line. Then the old steam whistle blows, and all those workers exit the building and drive back to their middle class 1950s homes. This world does not exist anymore and is never coming back. If manufacturing comes back, it's going to be heavily automated plants with a lean staff of robot technicians keeping the line going. Manufacturing may come back to the USA, but those Fred Flintstone jobs are not part of the picture.
- potato3732842 2y ago
  Those were not middle class jobs before the 1950s nor were they for long afterwards. The idea that one can be functionally illiterate yet afford a home, a car and a family by spending 40hr and no more riveting spring hangers onto Chevrolets, or whatever, is a legacy from a blip in time during which the US had a bear monopoly on state of the art for the time manufacturing. Those men who worked comparable factory jobs in the 1870s through the 1930s had wives and kids doing piece work at home. And in the 1970s their wives all went back to work again, just outside the home.
  - ferguess_k 2y ago
    I think maybe with two people working a blue collar job that is much more realistic objective, once better wealth distribution has been figured out.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
jkubicek 2y ago
> Manufacturing takes time and money to setup... Manufacturing requires capital, years, and will. And a stable political system. If I were in the manufacturing industry, I wouldn't make big bets on moving manufacturing back to the states unless I had some real guarantees that these tariffs weren't going to go away in the next week.
- jkubicek 2y ago
  Oh hey, look what (mostly) went away in a week
rich_sasha 2y ago
> It will be automated with a fifth or less required to setup and maintain. It is genuinely a hard problem. Even 50 years ago or so, simply having two hands and reasonable health was a gateway to a decent-paying job. These jobs have kind of evaporated, and aren't going back. That's a bit part of the nostalgia for manufacturing, I would imagine. In an ideal world, you would ramp up free education, churn out more skilled labour. But for many reasons, this isn't happening and isn't likely to happen soon. So what should societies do with all this "unskilled surplus labour"? UK has sort of given up, and since 1970s whole regions of England rely heavily on continued social transfers. I.e. the bankers and the oil rigs pay for the budget, the budget pays for former miners. But that's increasingly unsustainable, not to mention massively unattractive to everyone involved. US seems to (maybe?) follow a note darwinian approach. But this is, it seems, also not working. Bringing back manufacturing, as you say, won't fix it either. It feels like there is a whole class of people without access to good jobs or education to reskill. Other than spending a lot of money on this, like Switzerland, I don't really know how to fix it, it is genuinely a hard problem in a liberal country. Would be keen to hear suggestions.
- __d 2y ago
  What does/did Switzerland do?

NoMoreNicksLeft 2y ago

> Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. Trump has 4 years if he survives that long. He's an old man. The trade war can't possibly last long enough for manufacturing to be forced to restart domestically. Even if this was his first term and he got a second, by the time the second rolls around everyone would just hope to wait it out until the Democrats retook the White House and they could import everything from China again. But now no one can even make the argument and be taken seriously that we need this, because if Trump's doing trade wars then it must be a bad idea.

walterbell 2y ago
> hope to wait it out This investment thesis is about to be tested at scale.
markus_zhang 2y ago
IMO if Trump is serious about bringing manufacturing back to US, his No.1 job is to remove all middle-high managers from all government agencies. The whole government has been bathing in the globalization alcohol for so many years that there is a huge interest group rooted for it to go forever. You can't do much without removing this group. There is no "legal", "orderly" retreat from the current situation IMHO. It's going to be messy. The issue is whether Trump is doing the job or he is just faking it for whatever the reasons.
- pjc50 2y ago
  > There is no "legal", "orderly" retreat from the current situation IMHO. It's going to be messy. .. so what's the point of this again?
  - markus_zhang 2y ago
    What's the point of what?
    - pjc50 2y ago
      The "retreat" (in which direction) from the "current situation" (US richest country in the world, as they keep reminding us "Europoors"). What's the US supposed to look like after this purge?
      - markus_zhang 2y ago
        (just a disclaimer that I do not agree or disagree with this bringing back manufacturing to the US, the discussion is solely based on the supposition that Trump wants to bring it back) Once the purge is done in the public and private sectors (yeah you can imagine that such interest groups exist everywhere), Trump and his allies need to install competitive people to create and execute policies to "bring manufacturing back". Failing either of the two (purging and reinstalling competitive policy makers) fails the job.
      - NoMoreNicksLeft 2y ago
        Rich in what, exactly? Inflated stock prices? Inflated home prices? Empty processed-food calories? Are we the richest in recently-built public infrastructure or intellectual property (or both!!)? Maybe we're the richest in collateralized debt obligations? No one in the United States feels rich, when we look around, we don't see wealth or prosperity. We suspect, though we'd feel silly to say it out loud, that if anyone ever busted into Fort Knox and looked in the vaults, those would be empty of the gold that it was once famous for. >What's the US supposed to look like after this purge? I imagine we'll look like what we really have been for a long while, instead of this illusion that everyone has of us.
robertjpayne 2y ago
It's not even necessarily 4 years. If the economy crashes hard there's a very real possibility of a Democratic congress that takes control of tariffing away from the President and removes all of this nonsense. That election is only 18 months away.
alabastervlog 2y ago
Besides, all the "I'm tariffing! Maybe not. I'm tariffing! I'm super serious this time! Maybe not" leading up to this destroyed confidence that these'll even be fully implemented—the tariffs are still rolling out, and will be until early next month. And if implemented, will he keep them going? Month after month? I don't think most people with capital believe it. Proof of the uncertainty is that Wall Street clearly thinks there's a good chance he'll back off. That's why the market still has room to keep falling, rather than having already fallen as far as it will for a while. It's got a lot of room left. All that room is people betting he's not going to keep this up.

ferguess_k 2y ago

I think they will more or less add some jobs at least, which is fine. But I don't think there is going to be any political will unless the necessity pushes people to demand it.

ryandrake 2y ago

> Manufacturing does not mean jobs. Exactly. I think a lot of people who say they "want manufacturing to come back to the USA" have a picture in their imagination of a 1950s factory employing hundreds of middle class people standing along an assembly line picking up parts with their hands and working on them, or turning bolts on a car as it goes down the line. Then the old steam whistle blows, and all those workers exit the building and drive back to their middle class 1950s homes. This world does not exist anymore and is never coming back. If manufacturing comes back, it's going to be heavily automated plants with a lean staff of robot technicians keeping the line going. Manufacturing may come back to the USA, but those Fred Flintstone jobs are not part of the picture.

potato3732842 2y ago
Those were not middle class jobs before the 1950s nor were they for long afterwards. The idea that one can be functionally illiterate yet afford a home, a car and a family by spending 40hr and no more riveting spring hangers onto Chevrolets, or whatever, is a legacy from a blip in time during which the US had a bear monopoly on state of the art for the time manufacturing. Those men who worked comparable factory jobs in the 1870s through the 1930s had wives and kids doing piece work at home. And in the 1970s their wives all went back to work again, just outside the home.
- ferguess_k 2y ago
  I think maybe with two people working a blue collar job that is much more realistic objective, once better wealth distribution has been figured out.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

jkubicek 2y ago

> Manufacturing takes time and money to setup... Manufacturing requires capital, years, and will. And a stable political system. If I were in the manufacturing industry, I wouldn't make big bets on moving manufacturing back to the states unless I had some real guarantees that these tariffs weren't going to go away in the next week.

jkubicek 2y ago
Oh hey, look what (mostly) went away in a week

rich_sasha 2y ago

> It will be automated with a fifth or less required to setup and maintain. It is genuinely a hard problem. Even 50 years ago or so, simply having two hands and reasonable health was a gateway to a decent-paying job. These jobs have kind of evaporated, and aren't going back. That's a bit part of the nostalgia for manufacturing, I would imagine. In an ideal world, you would ramp up free education, churn out more skilled labour. But for many reasons, this isn't happening and isn't likely to happen soon. So what should societies do with all this "unskilled surplus labour"? UK has sort of given up, and since 1970s whole regions of England rely heavily on continued social transfers. I.e. the bankers and the oil rigs pay for the budget, the budget pays for former miners. But that's increasingly unsustainable, not to mention massively unattractive to everyone involved. US seems to (maybe?) follow a note darwinian approach. But this is, it seems, also not working. Bringing back manufacturing, as you say, won't fix it either. It feels like there is a whole class of people without access to good jobs or education to reskill. Other than spending a lot of money on this, like Switzerland, I don't really know how to fix it, it is genuinely a hard problem in a liberal country. Would be keen to hear suggestions.

__d 2y ago
What does/did Switzerland do?